Navy vs Memphis Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Blake Watson Torches Midshipmen

The Navy Midshipmen will play a rare mid-week game when they visit the Memphis Tigers tonight in Week 3 of college football action. 

The Mids rebounded from their Week 0 defeat to Notre Dame with a victory over FCS Wagner, and hope to get a win ahead of a bye in Week 4 of the college football season. They’re coming off their first shutout in 15 years, but their competition will take a big step up this week.

Memphis is 2-0 on the early season, and will also want another win prior to a bye week. The Tigers have yet to allow an offensive touchdown, a streak that could well continue against Navy’s anemic offense. 

We examine the best college football betting odds in our college football picks for Navy vs. Memphis below.

Navy vs Memphis best odds

Navy vs Memphis picks and predictions

Last season, Memphis Tigers running back Blake Watson was used heavily in the passing game as the season drew to a close. He had at least 29 yards receiving in each of Memphis’ last four games, with at least four catches in each of those contests.

He’s already caught at least four passes and gained 25 yards receiving in each of the first two games this season. His team-leading nine receptions are in addition to having toted the rock 30 times, as he’s been a focal point of the Tigers' offensive attack.

He’s going to be a matchup problem for Navy on Thursday night, as they try to stop Memphis and their multifaceted attack. That’s why we’re banking on him to gain 30 or more yards receiving as our best bet. 

Navy’s opening defeat to Notre Dame in Dublin saw them get torn to shreds both on the ground and through the air. Running back Audric Estime gained 95 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries for the Irish, but he also caught two passes for 26 yards.

But it’s more what Wagner, their FCS opponent last week, did against them that makes me high on this prop play. They split their carries primarily between two backs, but only one of them — Ricky Spruill — catches passes. And despite having just two receptions against the Midshipmen, he gained 17 yards.

Notre Dame was able to spread the ball around against Navy, and Memphis is going to look to do the same. Four different Irish players topped 30 yards receiving in that game, but the Tigers are even more even-handed in their distribution. 

Against Arkansas State, seven different Memphis players gained between 24 and 52 yards. They followed that up against Bethune-Cookman with five different players — including Watson — gaining at least 35 yards through the air.

Navy simply doesn’t have the personnel to cover everyone in the passing game, meaning they’re likely to play zone defense. That’s going to open things up for plenty of dump-offs out of the backfield. 

Given his usage, I’ll gladly take Watson to get to at least 30 yards receiving for what should be an easy cash. Grab Blake Watson’s Week 3 player prop at either DraftKings or bet365, with each offering -115 odds. 

My best bet: Blake Watson over 29.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Navy vs Memphis same-game parlay

Blake Watson Over 29.5 yards receiving

Seth Henigan Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Henigan Over 254.5 passing yards

+275 at bet365

Our same-game parlay at bet365 keys in on Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan, who we expect to have a big game just as he did a year ago against the Mids. Henigan threw for over 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns as Memphis rolled to a 37-13 win. 

The Navy defensive coordinator last season — Brian Newberry — is now their head coach, and I don’t expect they’ll suddenly have a better plan of slowing Henigan down. We’ll take him to throw two or more touchdowns for the third time in as many games, and to top 254.5 yards passing for the seventh time in his last nine starts.   

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Navy vs Memphis spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for Thursday night’s game sees Navy getting 14.5 pts as the underdog, with the line having moved as high as 16.5 on Sunday before coming back down. Memphis is expected to win by more than two touchdowns, with 70% of the Covers Consensus backing the Tigers.

Memphis has yet to face a true test this season, but I’m not sure Navy’s the team to provide that. This game wasn’t close a year ago, and nothing Navy’s shown so far makes me think that’s suddenly going to change. The Midshipmen have yet to cover a spread through their first two games, and this will make three in a row. 

As for the total, shopping around will get you either 47.0 or 47.5 on a line that varied between 46.0 and 50.5 when it opened on Sunday. The game a season ago saw 50 points scored but needed two Memphis touchdowns in the final six minutes to reach that number.

The Covers Consensus is a bit more split on this one, with 55% taking the Over. Personally, I’ll be staying away from the total, as I never like to play the total in a game involving a triple-option team. That said, the new rules in play make me lean Under in this situation which would make it 3-0 in Navy’s games so far this year.  

Navy vs Memphis betting trend to know

The first-half Under is 6-0 in Navy’s last six away games. Find more college football betting trends for Navy vs Memphis.

Navy vs Memphis game info

Navy vs Memphis latest injuries

Navy vs Memphis weather

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