Navy vs Notre Dame Picks and Predictions: Styles Clash in South Bend

Navy and Notre Dame had met for 93 straight years before last season’s forced hiatus, but they not only will renew the series this weekend, they have also announced an extension into the next decade that includes a trip to Dublin to open 2023.

That is then, though. For now, the Irish will need to reacquaint themselves with defending the triple-option, never a fun task.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Navy at Notre Dame on November 6, with kickoff set for 3:30 ET.

Navy vs Notre Dame odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Irish opened as 20.5-point favorites and rose to 21-point favorites, where the line remained all week. The total opened at 46.5 on Sunday and jumped to 47.5 in the middle of the week. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Navy vs Notre Dame picks

• Notre Dame -21.0 (-110)
• Over 47.5 (-110)

Picks made on 11/5/2021 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Navy vs Notre Dame game info

• Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
• Date: Saturday, November 6, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC

Navy vs Notre Dame betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Navy: Mitchell West S (Out).
Notre Dame: Kyle Hamilton S (Out), Braden Lenzy WR (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in its last six games. This series has hit the Over eight times in its last 10 meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Navy vs. Notre Dame.

Navy vs Notre Dame predictions

Notre Dame -21.0 (-110)

Irish head coach Brian Kelly never expects more than eight possessions when playing Navy. At one point during his tenure, he got only six. That ball control is a staple of a triple-option underdog.

A month ago, no one would have expected Notre Dame’s offense to be efficient enough to cover a three-touchdown spread while getting the ball only eight times, but things have changed in South Bend in the last month. The hurry-up offense seen against USC and North Carolina has proven an ability to string together long touchdown drives. The Irish scored on drives longer than 70 yards eight times in those two games, and only one of those was Kyren Williams’ show-stopping 91-yard touchdown against the Tar Heels.

Including Williams’ romp, six of those eight drives took less than four minutes. Notre Dame found a balance between its early-season quick-strike approach and a methodical ability to maintain drives. That up-tempo balance could create an extra possession or two on Saturday against Navy.

An extra possession or two against a defense that gives up 30.0 points per game to lesser opponents — no offense intended to Marshall (49 points), Central Florida (30 points), or Memphis (35 points) — should propel the Irish toward a 40-point mark that makes covering this spread not only feasible but likely considering that the Midshipmen have not scored more than 20 points in nearly a month.

Over 47.5 (-110)

An extra possession or two for Notre Dame could put this total in a position where Navy needs to find the end zone only once to hit the Over. As bad as the Midshipmen offense has been, it has averaged 22.5 points since its Week 2 nadir against Air Force.

The flaws of the triple-option are many — or few, if talking to the most pure of the purists — particularly when it is struggling like Navy has this season, but it is almost always good for a touchdown or two. Its repetitive nature eventually wears its way down the field.

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