Things were going great for North Carolina. The Tar Heels were undefeated, ranked in the Top 5, and their offense was humming. Then last week’s game against Florida State happened and they threw up all over themselves, losing outright as 13.5-point favorites.
UNC will look to rebound when it takes on in-state rival North Carolina State, this time as 17-point chalk. Do you dare trust the Tar Heels again, or do you side with the underdog Wolfpack?
Let’s take a look at our best college football predictions for North Carolina State at North Carolina, scheduled for Saturday, October 24 at 12:00 ET.
NC State Wolfpack vs North Carolina Tar Heels betting preview
Weather
It should be a nice afternoon for football in Chapel Hill with partly cloudy skies and temperatures hovering around the 80 mark. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
NC State: Khalid Martin S (Questionable), Justin Witt T (Questionable), Timothy McKay OL (Questionable), Joshua Harris DT (Questionable), Devin Leary QB (Out), Chris Ingram CB (Out).
North Carolina: Emery Simmons WR (Questionable), Ja'Wurious Conley DB (Questionable), Storm Suck DB (Out), Kendrick Bingley-Jones DL (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The road team has had the edge bettors in this Tar Heel State rivalry, with the team away from home going 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Texas State vs. BYU.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Yup, North Carolina was rolling heading into last weekend’s game against Florida State and then the Tar Heels fell flat on their face. The final score was 31-28 for FSU, but the game wasn’t that close. UNC trailed 31-7 at half and while the Tar Heels clawed back, they were 13.5-point faves against a team that lost to Georgia Tech — and Tech just lost to Clemson by 70. Welcome to college football in 2020.
If the Tar Heels want to get back in the win column they’ll need to establish the run with their dynamic duo of Michael Carter and Javonte Williams and allow QB Sam Howell to complement that ground game.
Meanwhile, North Carolina State has had a surprising 4-1 SU/ATS start. The Wolfpack have three outright wins as underdogs and are coming off a 31-20 win over Duke as 3.5-point favorites. But unfortunately, NC State lost starting QB Devin Leary to a leg injury for the foreseeable future.
The Pack now turn to junior QB Bailey Hockman, who is 27-46 for 316 yards with two touchdowns and three picks this season. NC State will lean on a pair of stud backs of its own in Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr., who both have over 300 yards rushing and are averaging 6.1 and 4.8 yards per carry, respectively.
Leary is obviously a loss, but it’s hard to have faith in the Tar Heels to cover a number this big after last week’s performance, particularly in a rivalry game.
PREDICTION: North Carolina State +17 (-110)
Over/Under pick
While both of these North Carolina teams could focus on the run in this game, don’t let that scare you away from the Over. First of all, UNC and NC State both allow over 150 rushing yards per game at this point in the season. Second, neither team really has a standout defense overall.
The Wolfpack has allowed just 41 points over the last two weeks, but Duke and Virginia aren’t exactly offensive powerhouses. In their first three games, the Pack allowed 38.7 points per contest.
The Tar Heels defense, on the other hand, looked good early in the year, but have certainly shown some cracks the last two weeks, giving up a combined 76 points to Virginia Tech and Florida State. The Tar Heels are also dealing with some injuries in the secondary, including standout corner Storm Duck.
Both teams should struggle to get stops at times and this one will land above the number.
PREDICTION: Over 61 (-110)
First-quarter total pick
Despite the fact both UNC and NC State were both shut out in the first quarter of their respective games, the Tar Heels and the Wolfpack have been two of the better first-quarter scoring teams in the country: UNC ranks eighth at 10.8 per contest and NC State is 25th at 7.6. Since we believe both defenses will be on their heels for large portions of this game, and we’re already betting the full-game Over, it’s safe to assume we like this game to start with a bang.
PREDICTION: First-quarter total Over 14 (+102)
NC State vs North Carolina betting card
- North Carolina State +17 (-110)
- Over 61 (-110)
- First-quarter total Over 14 (+102)
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