Nebraska vs Illinois Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Bottled Up Offenses in Champaign

A Friday night game between two coaches who've won double-digit games in a season on multiple occasions? That would usually generate plenty of excitement, but this is Nebraska vs. Illinois and both Matt Rhule and Brett Bielema have taken new jobs and been fired from them since last winning to that degree. 

With the Rhule era in Lincoln off to a slow start and lacking any offensive explosion, and Bielema seemingly hitting a speed bump after going 8-5 and losing a handful of Lovie Smith-recruited players to the NFL, this is shaping up to be a classic Big Ten punt-fest. The college football odds set the total low in this one for a reason.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks for Nebraska vs. Illinois on October 6.

Nebraska vs Illinois best odds

Nebraska vs Illinois picks and predictions

Both these programs head under the Friday night lights with 2-3 records and an inability to score points. The Nebraska Cornhuskers are averaging 18.8 per game, 123rd out of 133 schools, and the Illinois Fighting Illini are at 21.6 per game, the 105th-best mark in the country.

Nobody is tuning into this game expecting a flurry of points and even with a low 43-point total, the Under plays given how ugly both these offenses have been this season.

Nebraska is on its second quarterback of the season after Jeff Sims' addiction to turnovers led to Rhule turning to Heinrich Haarberg, but things haven’t been much better. Nebraska is coming off a 45-7 loss to Michigan in which the young quarterback completed just 56% of his passes with an interception.

As a whole, it’s been ugly for Cornhusker offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield’s unit. They currently sit 90th in EPA per play and 116th in EPA per pass while averaging 139.4 passing yards per game, seventh worst in the country and second worst among Power Five programs, with the same number of touchdown passes as interceptions (five). 

What they do have going for them is an ability to run the ball with a handful of running backs and Haarberg’s mobility. They’re a ball control offense that will look to bleed the clock down because they know points will be at a premium in this game.

This season, Nebraska is averaging 10.3 points in games against Power Five teams, while Illinois isn’t much better with their 18.3 per game against the Power Five.

Much like the Cornhuskers, the Illini simply cannot figure it out with their passing attack. It ranks 89th in EPA per pass to pull the offense down to 73rd in EPA per play. Despite averaging over 100 passing yards more per game than Nebraska, they’ve also only thrown five touchdown passes this season... but seven interceptions.

Like Nebraska, Illinois does run the ball much better than they throw it, ranking 34th in EPA per rush, and they want to bleed the clock and win a low-scoring rock fight. These teams aren’t that different, and the coaches know it.

“Nebraska is very similar to our situation," Illinois coach Bret Bielema said this week.

To help keep the Illinois running game contained and the points low, Cornhuskers defensive coordinator Tony White’s front seven will be up to the task; they’re 47th in EPA per rush on defense this season. Nebraska is giving up just 86.8 rushing yards per game this season, the 14th-lowest mark in the nation.

Both of these programs are trying to avoid an 0-3 start in the conference for the first time since 2020 (for Illinois) and 2018 (for Nebraska).

My best bet: Under 43 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Nebraska vs Illinois same-game parlay

Under 43.5 (-138)

Nebraska +3 (-138)

+190 at bet365

To further support the Under, neither of these teams has consistently hit the Over in a long time. Nebraska has cashed the Under in eight of their last 12 games (+3.60 units / 27% ROI) and Illinois has hit the Under in eight of their last 13 games (+3.60 units / 25% ROI).

Despite the similarities between these two programs, the Cornhuskers should have a slight edge as road dogs heading into Memorial Stadium.

While both teams want to run the ball, and the clock, and rank respectably in EPA per rush, Illinois’ struggles with stopping the run should give Rhule’s team an edge.

Averaging 209 rushing yards per game, 15th best in the country, Nebraska is in position to win the time of possession battle and score a few more points than Bielema’s program. Illinois is 93rd in EPA per rush on defense and allowing 179.6 rushing yards per game, fourth most in the Power Five.

Rhule’s team is built to keep this game close with neither team being set up well to score very much. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nebraska vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis

The line hasn’t moved much in this Big Ten showdown with Illinois opening as 3- to 3.5-point home favorites. Most books remain where they opened or have shifted a 0.5 point in either direction.

This season, only four teams in the country have gone winless against the spread and the Illini are one of them. They’re 0-5 this season and have failed to cover in three games as favorites; they were 16-point favorites in a win over FAU, 7.5-point favorites in a win over Toledo, and 1-point favorites in a loss to Purdue.

While Nebraska has fared better, they’re still just 2-3 against the spread this year. They’ve covered once (+7.5 against Minnesota) as underdogs and both times they were favored (against Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech).

The game total is being offered at 43 or 43.5 at most books — although some have it at 42.5 — after opening at 44.5 pretty much everywhere.

Both programs are 2-3 this season when betting the Over. Illinois has gone Over in a 44-19 loss to Purdue and a 30-28 win against Toledo. Nebraska has hit the Over in a 35-11 win against Northern Illinois and a 45-7 loss to Michigan. 

Nebraska vs Illinois betting trend to know

Illinois has gone Under its team total in five of its last seven games (+2.70 units / 34% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Nebraska vs Illinois.

Nebraska vs Illinois game info

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