Two teams with new head coaches will face off late Saturday night as the Nevada Wolf Pack hit the road to square off with the New Mexico State Aggies.
Nevada has dominated the series, winning 14 of the 16 all-time meetings, and the Wolf Pack are seeking to make their 15th bowl game in 18 years. Meanwhile, a poor campaign last year saw the Aggies again finish with a losing record, and they are hopeful that a change in leadership and a robust haul in the transfer portal will lead them back to a bowl game.
While the fireworks of last year’s meeting are unlikely to be replicated, we break down the best bets in our free college football picks and predictions for Nevada vs. New Mexico State on Saturday, August 27.
Nevada vs New Mexico State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened with Nevada being favored by nearly two touchdowns, but the early money flooded in on New Mexico State to cover the number. The line has moved at least five points at most books, with the Aggies getting just 8.5 points. The total has also come down drastically, opening at around 55.5 and dropping an entire touchdown.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Nevada vs New Mexico State predictions
- Prediction: Nevada -8.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 49.5 (-115)
- Best bet: New Mexico State TT Under 17.5 (+120)
Predictions made on 8/26/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Nevada vs New Mexico State game info
• Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
• Date: Saturday, August 27, 2021
• Kick-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Nevada vs New Mexico State betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Nevada: Aaron Front RT (Out).
New Mexico State: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest College football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The total has gone Over in seven of the last eight meetings between these two schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for Nevada vs. New Mexico State.
Nevada vs New Mexico State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
It’s a new era for the Wolf Pack, following the departure of head coach Jay Norvell to Colorado State. With it left Norwell's high-powered air-raid attack, along with nearly every component of an offense that averaged nearly 36 points and 350 yards through the air every weekend.
Not only will new head coach Ken Wilson have to replace starting quarterback Carson Strong and wide receiver Romeo Doubs, but he returns just one player who caught a pass during the 2021 season. Nevada is hopeful those receptions will be replaced by a pair of Power Five transfers in BJ Casteel and Dalevon Campbell.
In addition, its entire offensive line has changed after right tackle Aaron Front, an All-Mountain West selection last season, suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice. Thankfully, Wilson will have a few players to turn to as he tries to shift to a more balanced offensive attack.
He has a pair of powerful running backs in Toa Taua and Devontae Lee, each of whom weighs more than 200 pounds. Wilson will also have quarterback Nate Cox, a backup last year who played well in limited action.
On the other side of the ball, Nevada has lost nearly everyone from last season, as well. However, the Wolf Pack return Dom Peterson, the active leader in sacks, tackles for loss, and fumbles forced. In addition, they loaded up via the transfer portal, and their secondary is experienced and very solid.
The visitors aren’t the only team starting over, as New Mexico State fired Doug Martin following a 2-10 season and brought in Jerry Kill as head coach. Kill will also install a new system from what the Aggies played last year, and he will do so without much experience on the roster. Running back Juwan Price transferred to Syracuse, but he was replaced via the transfer portal by TCU back Ahmonte Watkins.
In addition, they return just one player who caught more than 20 passes last season. Quarterback is the spot with the most question marks, a worrying sign for any team. As of Thursday, Kill would not tip his hand as to who would start on Saturday, with the depth chart listing an “or” between true freshman Gavin Frakes and JUCO transfer Diego Pavia.
Whoever is under center will hope the offensive line is improved, with just two starters returning on a unit that allowed 40 sacks last season. Eight starters return on defense, but that may not be a good thing. They allowed nearly 140 yards more than they gained in 2021 and more than 40 points per contest.
They did add some quality through the transfer portal, with former Michigan cornerback Andre Seldon being the key new player. While both teams have serious holes, only one has actual strengths. Nevada’s two-headed rushing attack gives it something to rely on in this game, and its secondary is excellent. That gives it an edge against a New Mexico State defense that allowed nearly 200 yards rushing per game last year.
Nevada isn’t going to light up the scoreboard as it has in years past, but the Wolf Pack should be able to wear down the Aggies with their power run game and continue their dominance in the series.
Take the Wolf Pack to cover against a New Mexico State team that has lost each of its last four home openers by at least 21 points.
Prediction: Nevada -8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Under has dropped like a rock since opening, and for good reason. Nevada’s question marks at wide receiver and its strength at running back will have it relying on Taua and Lee, especially with a defensive-minded coach like Wilson at the helm.
He will look to shorten this game and limit the ability for New Mexico State to get into an offensive rhythm. Should the Aggies succeed on offense, it will likely be with the ground game, and they will want to take pressure off whichever quarterback is on the field. Should they fall behind early, it’s hard to see them putting up a bunch of points to get back in it.
While I’d rather have had the Under at the opening number, I’ll still take it anywhere above 47.5 points.
Prediction: Under 49.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Last season, these two teams got into a shootout in Reno, with Nevada winning 55-28 in a game that saw nearly 900 yards of passing put up. Nearly everyone who had a hand in scoring those points is gone this year, replaced by a group of transfers and players with minimal experience.
Also gone is an opponent who is going to look to attack and give them the ball back very quickly. In its last four home openers, New Mexico State has failed to score more than 10 points in three of them. Coming off a 2-10 season with major question marks at quarterback and receiver, it’s hard for me to see it putting up a big number when you consider Nevada will shorten the game and limit its possessions.
Take New Mexico State to finish with fewer than 17 points, a total it didn’t reach in its first three games against FBS teams last season.
Pick: New Mexico State team total Under 17.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
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