New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Diego the Explorer

The New Mexico State Aggies have become an early-week darling in college football. The Aggies have played and won three consecutive early-week games straight up and against the spread. This evening, New Mexico State will try to make four in a row when it visits the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs are searching for some answers, having lost four of their last five games overall, and desperately need a win if they still have hopes of qualifying for a bowl game this season.

Despite this, it’s Louisiana Tech which is a slight favorite for this C-USA clash. Is home-field advantage enough to be the difference for the Bulldogs to bounce back? Or will the early-bird Aggies keep getting that worm?

I break down the college football odds and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech on October 24.

New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech best odds

New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech picks and predictions

This run by New Mexico State has been pretty impressive. The Aggies have won four of their last five games going 4-0-1 ATS and have had a chance to win every game they’ve been in dating back to a Sept. 9 meeting at Liberty. 

A big reason for that has been because of the breakout of quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia is a dual-threat quarterback who has seen a big improvement in his passing accuracy over last season. The second-year signal-caller has upped his completion percentage from 53% to 62% this year.

He's used that improved accuracy to throw for 1,801 yards with 16 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions. Pavia is also the Aggies' leading rusher with 527 yards and four more scores on the ground. He leads an Aggies ground attack that is second in the nation in yards per carry. And they will be a tough matchup for Louisiana Tech.

The Bulldogs’ bark has been worse than their bite recently. They've lost four of their last five games, including three straight conference matchups. The offense has certainly been inconsistent but the holes on the defense are much more glaring. 

A quick glance at Louisiana Tech’s stats and it looks like the pass defense is solid. Well, that is in part because no one ever has to throw on the Bulldogs. Their run defense is just that bad. Louisiana Tech is surrendering nearly 200 rushing yards per game and ranks 111th in the nation in opponent yards per rushing attempt, at 5.0 yards per carry.

On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs will try and attack the Aggies through the air, which yes, they are a little susceptible to because they can be a tad aggressive. However, the Louisiana Tech offensive line has really struggled this season. The Bulldogs rank 74th in sack rate allowed vs. FBS opponents and 101st in tackles for a loss. New Mexico State ranks 24th in the nation in tackles for a loss. This means they should be able to get Louisiana Tech in some 3rd and long situations throughout the game.

But this all comes down to stopping Pavia and the Aggies’ stable of backs. I don’t think the Bulldogs are up to the task. And with this line at less than a field goal now, I'm backing the Aggies to not only cover but get another win.

My best bet: New Mexico State moneyline (+120 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech same-game parlay

New Mexico State moneyline

Diego Pavia Over 73.5 rushing yards

Diego Pavia anytime TD

Star Thomas anytime TD

+1,109 at bet365

As always, our same-game parlay starts with my best bet, which for this matchup is New Mexico State on the moneyline. And what is going to fuel the Aggies to that win? Pavia and the running game.

Pavia has taken his rushing attack to the next level recently. The junior quarterback has rushed for at least 96 yards in four of his last five games and he’s scored a touchdown each of the last three. So, we’re taking Pavia to go Over 73.5 rushing yards and to score an anytime touchdown. 

Let’s throw in New Mexico State running back Star Thomas to also find the end zone. He’s the Aggies' power back used near the goal line. He’s scored four rushing touchdowns and grabbed one through the air as well. 

If all four of these legs hit, we cash a big +1,109 ticket.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech spread and Over/Under analysis

Louisiana Tech hit the board for this C-USA matchup as 2.5-point home favorites. The Bulldogs saw some early action with the line hitting -3, but that number didn’t last long as the line has since returned to the opening number.

If you can wait around and get +3 with New Mexico State, I would recommend that, if not, I prefer the Aggies on the moneyline. And I do really like their chances to win this game. They are playing better right now, and are the team more accustomed to these early week games.

The total opened at 51.5 and has been bet up slightly to 52 as of Monday afternoon. I would have a slight lean to the Over because I believe New Mexico State will put up some points and can give up some yards through the air.

New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech betting trend to know

New Mexico State has hit the moneyline in nine of its last 12 games for +16.75 units. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech.

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