The college football main course officially kicks off this week after a nice appetizer with Week 0 last weekend. One of the night games of the opening Saturday features a non-conference battle between the New Mexico Lobos and Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday night at Kyle Field in College Station, TX.
Both teams are looking for a better 2023 after a disappointing 2022. New Mexico went 2-10 last season and lost several starters. Texas A&M went 5-7 but brought back many of their starters from the end of last year.
I analyze the college football odds, and give my college football picks and predictions for New Mexico vs. Texas A&M below.
New Mexico vs Texas A&M best odds
New Mexico vs Texas A&M picks and predictions
Things were rough for the Lobos last season and they may be just as bad this year. New Mexico ranked next to last in the country with 13.1 points per game. They lost their starting quarterback, top two leading rushers, leading receiver, and a starting lineman.
They didn’t replace them with highly touted talent either. New Mexico had the worst-ranked recruiting class in the MWC in 2023 according to On3 Recruiting. They will be relying on transfers for many of their starters with Dylan Hopkins from UAB at QB, Andrew Henry from Louisiana Monroe at RB, and Jeremiah Hixon from Alabama State at WR.
On defense, the Lobos lost their top seven tacklers, top eight in tackles for loss, top three in sacks, and 11 of their top 12 defenders in playing time from a unit that allowed 26.0 points per game (ranked 61st nationally). They did bring in a Safety from TCU, D’Arco Perkins-McAllister, to replace one of those positions. However, they still have lots of holes.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M is bringing back 10 of their 11 offensive starters from a team that averaged 22.8 points per game (101st). However, Conner Weigman at quarterback did not play a ton last season as he took over late going 73/132 passing for 896 yards and eight touchdowns to no interceptions. Their big loss was at RB losing Devon Achane to the NFL.
On defense, they only lost three of their top 12 defenders by playing time for a unit that ranked 25th nationally allowing 21.2 points per game. They added CB Tony Grimes from UNC in the transfer portal along with the 15th nationally ranked recruiting class. It will be more likely we see a version of the Aggies where they beat LSU to end the year than the one that lost six consecutive games in the heart of the season.
The Lobos offense was dreadful last season and while they likely added a bit more talent than what was left from last season, they still will have no experience playing in a game together. Their strength on defense was completely depleted and not well replaced. They will be lucky to stay with this Texas A&M squad for more than a quarter or two.
The Aggies depended heavily on Achane and the run game on offense last season until they introduced Weigman at quarterback. You will likely see a completely different offense this year as they will rely a little bit more heavily on the passing game. However, it may take some time for them to gel and that is why I love the Under in this game.
My best bet: Under 49.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
New Mexico vs Texas A&M same-game parlay
Under 49.5
Texas A&M -30.5
New Mexico Under 6.5 points
As always, we start our same-game parlay with our best bet which is the Under 49.5. I talked in length about how poor New Mexico will be offensively, and as seen by their team total, scoring a touchdown would be a major accomplishment for them against a good Aggies defense.
While this game will almost certainly be one-sided, the Aggies offense is a work in progress despite bringing back 10 of 11 starters from last year's 101st ranked offense (22.8 ppg). We expect the Aggies to do enough at home to get into the mid-to-high 30's and get the cover, all while shutting the door on the Lobos attempt at getting into the end zone.
The end result gives us Aggies covering -30.5 alt spread, Under 49.5 and Lobos Under 6.5 points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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New Mexico vs Texas A&M spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread is understandably massive in this game at 38.5 points. However, I am not sure enough points will be scored in this game for Texas A&M to possibly cover this spread. The most points they scored in a single game last year was 38 points in the last game against LSU.
Even in their blowout games over UMass and Sam Houston State, the Aggies only amassed 20 and 31 points respectively. While the offense will likely be a bit better and the Lobos defense will not be as good, this is still a big ask. I would lean towards taking New Mexico on the spread.
The Under is my best bet of the game and there are clear reasons to why. The Lobos will have a nice boost to their quarterback position, but when the best receiving option only tallied 286 receiving yards for an FCS school, there are concerns.
I will be shocked if New Mexico finds the endzone in this game and we just talked about how Texas A&M has not scored more than 38 points in a game in over a full season. It will be a blowout, but it will not be a high-scoring one.
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New Mexico vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
New Mexico has hit the Team Total Under in six of their last seven away games. New Mexico has only hit the Game Total Over in two of their last 11 away games. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico vs Texas A&M.
New Mexico vs Texas A&M game info
| Location: | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, September 2, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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