The UNLV Rebels are hosting the New Mexico Lobos in both teams' second Mountain West Conference game. The Rebels are 1-0 in the conference, having defeated Utah State last week, while the Lobos lost to Boise State three weeks ago.
New Mexico is 2-2 overall but got humiliated last Saturday in Baton Rouge, losing to the LSU Tigers 38-0. UNLV will try to add to the Lobos’ misery on Friday and has been a favorite of spread bettors, going 4-0 ATS this season.
Can the Rebels hand New Mexico its second conference loss or will the Lobos upset heavily favored UNLV? Continue reading for free college football picks and predictions for New Mexico vs. UNLV.
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New Mexico vs UNLV best odds
New Mexico vs UNLV picks and predictions
UNLV is enjoying a 3-1 start, its best record since 2008. More importantly, the Rebels are 4-0 against the spread.
This week, however, they are 14-point favorites against New Mexico at home. That isn’t the biggest number they have had to lay this season. In their season opener, UNLV was favored by 23 points against Idaho State and covered easily with a 52-21 victory.
I don’t see New Mexico putting up much of a challenge either. The team is not good. Last week, against LSU, the Lobos managed just 88 yards in total offense. They also had a program-low two first downs, going three-and-out eight times, including all five of their second-half possessions.
Lobos coach Danny Gonzales told reporters his team needs to improve but added the shutout loss to LSU was just one game.
However, New Mexico also struggled on offense in its other loss, a 31-14 defeat to Boise State at home. Quarterback Miles Kendrick had just 98 yards passing and a quartet of running backs could only muster 55 yards on the ground. It looks worse when you factor in the 30 yards lost on eight sacks sustained by Kendrick.
Gaining 123 total yards of offense isn’t going to get it done against a UNLV team that has been piling up yardage. In their four games, the Rebels have had 320, 576, 309, and 554 total yards.
The rushing attack has been huge for UNLV, compiling 100 or more yards in all four games.
A complete offense will be key against New Mexico and should allow a fifth straight Rebels cover.
My best bet: UNLV -14 (-110 at BetMGM)
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New Mexico vs UNLV spread analysis
UNLV has turned into one of the feel-good stories so far in college football. At 3-1, the program is halfway to being eligible for a bowl game for the first time since 2014.
The Rebels will face a New Mexico team that has been anemic on offense. The Lobos are averaging 236.8 yards per game. The rushing game accounts for 130.3 yards a game, while the passing is at 106.5.
Kendrick has only attempted 71 passes in four games, completing 41 of them for 426 yards. He has three touchdowns and three interceptions in those games.
The UNLV defense should force Kendrick to scramble when he does attempt to pass. The defense caused five interceptions and a fumble on Utah State’s QB Logan Bonner in its 34-24 victory.
New Mexico’s defense will have its hands full with UNLV QB Doug Brumfield. The sophomore completed 21 of 31 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown and also ran for two scores last week.
UNLV is also aided by a strong rushing attack. The Rebels have rushed for 200 or more yards in two of their four games. Their lowest total was in their opener against Idaho State, where they still had 127 yards.
The Rebels are 4-0 against the spread in their games this season. They are also 6-1 ATS following an ATS victory.
New Mexico vs UNLV Over/Under analysis
UNLV has been averaging 38.5 points a game compared to New Mexico's 20.5, though the latter does come after getting shut out by LSU.
The total for Friday’s contest is 43.5 and the best line is at FanDuel, which is offering the Over at -105.
The Over is the play. If both teams hit their average, they will combine for 59 points. I don’t know if New Mexico will get to 20 points but the Rebels should easily cruise to 38.
Consider that UNLV scored 34 last week against a Utah State team that is much better than New Mexico. Think of the Lobos in the same category as North Texas, who UNLV hung 58 on two weeks ago.
The Lobos can’t stop the pass and Brumfield has been tearing through inferior defenses. He should do the same on Friday.
The Over is 4-1 in the last five games for the Rebels and 5-2 in their last seven conference games.
When these two teams played a year ago, UNLV wasn’t that good and still managed to score 31 points.
New Mexico vs UNLV betting trend to know
The Over is 4-1 in the last five games between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for New Mexico vs. UNLV.
New Mexico vs UNLV game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Friday, September 30, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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