North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Prediction: FCS Championship Odds and Picks

One of the most dominant programs in North American sports looks to add to its historic run of success with yet another championship this weekend.

Winners of nine of the last 11 FCS championships, the North Dakota State Bison (12-1) have been head and shoulders above the rest of the country for over a decade.

Their opponent in 2023 won’t be an easy team to defeat, as the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (13-1) have beaten the Bison three straight times and captured the Missouri Valley championship this season.

Check out our college football picks and predictions for the North Dakota State Bisons and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits on Sunday, January 8.

North Dakota State vs South Dakota State odds

North Dakota State vs South Dakota State picks and predictions

There’s no denying NDSU’s dominance at the FCS level. The Bison have won nine of the last 11 FCS championships, an impressive run that speaks for itself. Have the Bison finally met their match in SDSU, who has won each of the last three meetings between the two programs?

When these programs played back on October 15, NDSU grabbed a 21-7 lead at the half and looked to be cruising. SDSU ripped off a 16-0 second half, however, to claim the 23-21 victory. The game was key in the Jackrabbits’ successful Missouri Valley championship run. SDSU was able to run the ball well, as Isaiah Davis had 14 carries for 114 yards while Amar Johnson had 12 carries for 89 yards. The Jackrabbits, in turn, shut down NDSU’s rushing attack, as the Bison’s leading ball carrier (Hunter Luepke) in that contest managed just 15 carries for 58 yards. 

After losing the opener 7-3 to Iowa, the Jackrabbits have reeled off 13 straight victories. A stingy defense leads the charge, as SDSU is allowing just 263.4 total yards and 15.4 points per game. The rush defense has been especially stout, surrendering just 82.8 yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry. 

The Jackrabbits will need to shut down NDSU’s rushing attack yet again, as the Bison thrive off running the ball. They accumulated a 12-2 record this season with the only losses being the aforementioned SDSU game and a 31-28 loss to Arizona. On offense, they average 35.3 ppg, led by a powerful rushing attack averaging 273.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per carry. The defense is elite, surrendering just 18.4 ppg and 316.7 total yards. 

The kids from Fargo have dominated Frisco, winning all nine of the aforementioned recent championships in the city. SDSU is a fierce challenger, however, reaching the semifinal in five of the last six seasons. Is that enough to establish the Jackrabbits as a six-point favorite, however?

SDSU is a trendy bet this week, and it’s easy to see why — the Jackrabbits have been fantastic this season, and have already beaten the Bison once. I’ll be looking the other way with my best bet, however, as establishing the most dominant program in the country in the last decade-plus as 5.5-point underdog is simply too much for me to ignore. There’s a chance this line keeps rising throughout the week as SDSU seems to be a very popular bet, in which case I would more strongly recommend the NDSU side. 

Give me the Bison as an overqualified underdog.

My best bet: North Dakota State +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

North Dakota State vs South Dakota State spread analysis

South Dakota State has the bigger names on offense, although that hasn’t necessarily led to a more productive unit than its counterpart. Quarterback Mark Gronowski has three NFL Draft prospects to throw to, with twin brothers Jadon and Jaxon Jahnke at receiver and Tucker Kraft at tight end. Kraft missed the initial matchup between these teams back in October but returned to the lineup shortly thereafter and will be full-go for this matchup. He’s one of the best tight ends in the country, regardless FBS or FCS, and his return will be welcomed. 

The statistical differences aren’t vast, but SDSU does seem to possess higher-end talent in regard to NFL Draft prospects. The Bison still managed to gain more yards per game (399.4 to 375.9) and score more points per game (35.3 to 33.4), so they have plenty of talent of their own and shouldn’t be overwhelmed in this matchup.

It’s a rivalry, championship, and rematch all wrapped into one. I see no reason not to expect a close game, and therefore find the spread too wide to not fancy the underdog. Frisco has become the new Fargo in the last decade-plus, and I find this line highly disrespectful of an NDSU team looking for its tenth championship in the last 12 seasons. 

North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Over/Under analysis

I’ll have a play on the Under given the dominance of both defenses. The Jackrabbits are truly elite defensively and match up well with the Bison. SDSU has the best rush defense in the country at the FCS ranks and has already slowed down NDSU’s vaunted ground game once this season. 

The Jackrabbits have been performing at a supremely high level on that end all season, and there’s no reason to expect a significant shift in that regard. NDSU quarterback Cam Miller is fine, but he hasn’t been playing at the level we’ve become accustomed to with this program, given that quite a few went on the be NFL starters in recent years. 

NDSU is no slouch on defense either, allowing 4.9 yards per play and just 316.7 total yards per game. The Bison look to put together long, extended drives on offense as well, which tends to slow games down to a halt. The Bison will not want to get into a shootout against a Jackrabbits offense littered with potential NFL players, so the game plan should involve taking the air out of the ball. 

North Dakota State vs South Dakota State betting trend to know

North Dakota State is 5-0 ATS in its last five FCS championship game appearances. Find more NCAA betting trends for North Dakota State] vs. South Dakota State.

North Dakota State vs South Dakota State game info

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