It's a holiday season-appropriate matchup in the Frisco Football Classic as the North Texas Mean Green face the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks.
Get it? Green and Red? At Christmas time?
The first matchup on Thursday's college football bowl game schedule features two 6-6 squads, with the Mean Green (fifth in C-USA) opening as 3.5-point college football betting underdogs against the RedHawks, who finished fourth in the MAC.
Here is the first look at the odds — with picks and predictions to come closer to kickoff — for North Texas vs. Miami (Ohio) in the Frisco Football Classic on Thursday, December 23.
North Texas vs Miami (OH) odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Miami (Ohio) opened as a 3.5-point favorite, but that line has moved to -3 as of December 8. The total now sits at 54, up 1.5 points from the opening mark of 52.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
North Texas vs Miami (OH) predictions
Predictions made on 12/16/2021 at 11:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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North Texas vs Miami (OH) game info
• Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
• Date: Thursday, December 23, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
North Texas vs Miami (OH) betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
North Texas: Quinn Whitlock DB (Questionable), Isaiah Johnson RB (Questionable), Oscar Adaway III RB (Out), Tommy Bush WR (Out), Jyaire Shorter WR (Out).
Miami (OH): Jaylon Bester RB (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The RedHawks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games and 2-6 ATS in their previous eight contests vs. Conference USA opponents. Find more NCAA betting trends for North Texas vs. Miami (OH).
North Texas vs Miami (OH) picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Both of these schools finished with .500 records but played much better down the stretch. North Texas began the year going just 1-6 SU but closed the season with five straight wins and covered the spread in their last six contests. Miami opened its season going just 2-4 SU and ATS but won four of its final six games, almost qualifying for the MAC championship game, but falling in overtime to Kent State.
After some ugly defensive performances at the beginning of the year, the Mean Green began playing up to their nickname in their last four contests, holding foes to just 305.5 yards and 15.3 points per game. But the biggest reason for their turnaround was their dominant running game, which finished third in the country with 237 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. The Mean Green passing game is much less effective with Austin Aune averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt and completing just 51.7% of his passes.
Miami's offense is the exact opposite, boasting a lethal aerial attack and a mediocre ground game. Quarterback Brett Gabbert leads the way with 268.7 passing yards per game and 9.0 ypa while tossing 24 touchdowns against just six interceptions.
On defense, the strength of the RedHawks is in their defensive end rotation of Kam Butler, Lonnie Phelps, Ben Kimpler, and Dominique Robinson, who combined for 25 sacks and 46 tackles for loss. That said, North Texas has an experienced offensive line that ranks among the Top-15 teams in the country in both sack rate and power success rate. With those blocks of granite able to control the line of scrimmage, they should be able to handle Miami's front.
Teams that can run the ball have a history of performing well in bowl games and North Texas should be able to churn out yards against a RedHawks defense coming off a contest where they surrendered 303 yards on the ground.
The Mean Green also have a significant edge when it comes to third-down conversion percentage, opponent third-down conversion percentage, and time of possession. All of which should help them put together drives and control the clock to keep Gabbert off the field. Take the Mean Green with the points.
Prediction: North Texas +3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
DeAndre Torrey leads North Texas with 1,255 rushing yards per game while Isaika Ragsdale and Ayo Adeyi combined for 1000 yards on 5.9 yards per carry. That three-headed green monster would be tough for anyone to stop, let alone a RedHawks squad that has struggled to contain the run at times.
That said, the Mean Green will have just as tough of a time limiting Gabbert and company. North Texas surrenders 7.9 yards per pass attempt (95th in the country) and will have their hands full with wideouts Jack Sorenson (1,290 receiving yards) and former Penn State recruit Mac Hippenhammer (786 receiving yards).
The RedHawks had offensive success in virtually every game that Gabbert played this season (he missed three contests due to injury). In his nine starts, the RedHawks averaged 32.1 ppg and the only team that slowed them down was Army. They even scored 26 points against Minnesota, a Big Ten program that ranked fourth in the country in total defense.
With Miami averaging 39.8 ppg in its last four games and the Mean Green putting up at least 45 points in their previous two contests, expect both offenses to find success in this bowl game.
Prediction: Over 54 (-110)
Best bet
It's tough to bet on a side for this game since they both have opposing styles and had such similar seasons in terms of heating up at the same time. But the total seems easier to put money on. Not only have the RedHawks struggled to defend the run at times, the Mean Green have been torched through the air, which plays right into the offensive strengths of the other side.
Add in a reasonable O/U number of 54 and the Over seems ripe for the picking even after moving up from the opening total of 52.5. So, sit back and enjoy some offensive fireworks in Frisco, Texas.
Pick: Over 54 (-110)
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Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
