Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets: Broncos Defend Home Turf

Having made a splash early in the season by beating Notre Dame, NIU has done very little winning since that point, and now has to face a WMU side on a four-game winning streak. Ed Scimia says back the hosts in this MAC clash.

Ed Scimia - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Ed Scimia • Betting Analyst
Nov 6, 2024 • 15:56 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Jaden Nixon Western Michigan Broncos NCAAF
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Jaden Nixon taking off downfield.

The Western Michigan Broncos will try to stay atop the MAC standings when they host the Northern Illinois Huskies tonight.

The Broncos may come in as underdogs, but I’ll explain why I like them to win at home in my Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois predictions. 

Let’s take a closer look at why I think the Broncos have the edge in my free college football picks for Wednesday, November 6. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, with the game airing on ESPN2.

Be sure to also check out our Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan props!

Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan prediction and best bet

My best bet
Western Michigan moneyline (+112 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Northern Illinois briefly became the darlings of college football when they beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 16-14 in early September. However, the Huskies have done little to suggest that game was indicative of their strength as a team.

In six games since, Northern Illinois has gone just 2-4, and has a 1-3 record against MAC opponents. Yet many rating systems still rate the Huskies relatively highly, no doubt buoyed by that one result in South Bend. 

The problem with looking at a sample size of one game, no matter how impressive, is that it can be highly misleading. Unless a team is so outmatched that it has no chance to score or no chance to stop its opponent, there’s some chance of an upset, and fluke results can happen. Increasingly, that’s what Northern Illinois’ win over Notre Dame looks like: an unlikely series of events that led to a narrow upset for a huge underdog.

Western Michigan already has wins over the Buffalo Bulls and the Ball State Cardinals, both teams that Northern Illinois came up short against. The Broncos are riding a four-game winning streak and have covered as favorites in each of their last three games. They will be at home for this matchup, where they are 3-0 this year.

Maybe you like the Huskies because of their outstanding defense, which is allowing just 17.6 ppg and led the team to the win against Notre Dame. That’s a reasonable premise, but it’s hard to see Northern Illinois completely shutting down a Broncos offense that is putting up 34 points per game and hasn’t been held below 34 points in MAC play. 

Western Michigan can’t be expected to put up those kinds of numbers against the Huskies, who will be the best in-conference defense it will face this year. But quarterback Hayden Wolff and running back Jaden Nixon are legitimate weapons for the Broncos, and they should find ways to score over the course of 60 minutes.

I can’t see Northern Illinois — which is averaging just 23.4 ppg — finding enough ways to score on the road to keep up with the Broncos, even if they have been poor on the defensive side of the ball. I like Western Michigan to win outright at home on Wednesday night and remain undefeated in the MAC. 

Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)

Western Michigan moneyline

Under 52.5

Jaden Nixon anytime touchdown

Western Michigan should be able to put away Northern Illinois on Wednesday night, but the Huskies defense won’t make it easy. I’m expecting a tough, low-scoring contest, and that’s why I’m taking the Under at 52.5 points.

Northern Illinois has yet to give up more than 25 points in a game this season, and they may well keep up that streak here even in a losing effort.

As for who will score for the Broncos, running back Jaden Nixon is the clear choice. Nixon has 10 touchdowns on the year and has scored in five of his last six games, easily running the ball against most opponents. Northern Illinois may be good against the run, but they’re far from spectacular, and Nixon should find his spots to break through and lead Western Michigan to victory. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan odds

Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan live odds

Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan opening odds

  • Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan spread: Western Michigan +1.5
  • Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan moneyline: Northern Illinois -110, Western Michigan +112
  • Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan Over/Under: 52.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Northern Illinois is 4-3-1 against this season, with Western Michigan being a dead even 4-4 ATS on the year.
  • The Broncos are a perfect 3-0 straight up at home this year, going 2-1 ATS in those games.
  • The Over is 6-2 when Western Michigan plays this year, while the Under has the 4-3-1 edge in Northern Illinois’ games. 
  • The Huskies are playing to an average total of 41.0 ppg, with the offensive-minded Broncos averaging a total of 67.8 ppg. 

Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan betting trend to know

Western Michigan has won four straight games. Find more college football betting trends for Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan.

Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan game info

Location: Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI
Date: Wednesday, 11-6, 2024
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2

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Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan weather

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Ed Scimia - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Ed Scimia has been writing about the gaming industry for over 15 years. He graduated from Syracuse University with degrees in Magazine Journalism and Political Science in 2003, and has covered major gambling events like the World Series of Poker in his career. Since joining Covers in 2022, Ed has offered his sports betting analysis primarily on MLB, NFL, college football, and college basketball games, but is willing to take on any sport.

His betting strategy focuses more on finding line value based on deviations from the market rather than traditional handicapping, primarily shopping between DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics in his home state of Connecticut, though he’s not afraid to do deep game analysis to find profitable bets at any book.

Outside of gambling, Ed is an avid curler who competes in mixed doubles on the World Curling Tour and runs a popular curling YouTube channel, Chess on Ice. That experience has come in handy during the Olympics, when he has proven to be a successful curling bettor as well. 

Ed's advice to new bettors is to always open multiple sportsbook accounts and check the odds at each before placing any bet. Successful sports betting is about consistently beating the closing line value, which requires finding spots where one book is offering odds far better than the rest of the market and jumping on those opportunities.

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