Northwestern vs Duke Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Dominant Defenses Write the Game Script

The Big Ten Conference meets the ACC when the Northwestern Wildcats travel to Durham, North Carolina, for a matchup with the Duke Blue Devils.

College football odds have the Blue Devils as 18.5-point favorites with a 48.5-point total when the two sides square off this Saturday. That total seems a tad too high for my liking, and I'll explain why in my free college football picks for Northwestern vs. Duke. 

Northwestern vs Duke best odds

Northwestern vs Duke picks and predictions

Duke Head Coach Mike Elko stresses defense, and his Blue Devils are defense personified. Duke scored 94 points off turnovers over Elko’s 15 games as head coach and has won the turnover battle in 10 of those games. As a result, the Blue Devils are 11-4 since the HC took over in 2022.

Defensive tackle DeWayne Carter has caused seven fumbles over his career at Duke, and he and his defense boast a +1 turnover margin while allowing just 317 yards and seven points per game at Wallace Wade Stadium. 

This defense has allowed two TDs this season and pitched a second-half shutout in the first two games. The Blue Devils defense has three interceptions and four sacks on the season and faces a Northwestern offense with injury issues at QB.

The Wildcats have all sorts of trouble scoring the football, but they also possess a good defense. They held Rutgers to 24 points, and last week allowed seven points with three interceptions in their 38-7 victory over UTEP. Northwestern has allowed just seven second-half points this season.

Linebacker Bryce Gallagher led the team in tackles in 2022, and his dozen tackles per game lead the Big Ten. Northwestern has a +1 turnover margin and averages two sacks per contest. It’ll meet a Duke offense averaging 35 points per game and 317.5 yards of offense.

The respective defenses will lead the way on Saturday, and both groups play defense with bad intentions. These two stop units love to hit, force turnovers, are good tacklers, and have allowed a combined seven second-half points this season.

Finally, while both offenses have scored the football, they’ve benefited mostly from terrific field position caused by defensive turnovers. These two stop units are stout, and I expect them to deliver the goods, helping this contest to end Under 48.5.

My best bet: Under 48,5 (-110 at bet365)

Northwestern vs Duke same-game parlay

Under 48.5

Duke 1H ML

+320 at DraftKings

If these teams have any shot at scoring, they better put some drives together in the first half. Duke allows seven first-half points per game, while the Wildcats defense allows a dozen first-half points per contest.  A far cry from what we've seen these squads do in the final half.

Northwestern averages just 3.5 points in the first half of games thus far, and although the Blue Devils aren't much better with six, it's enough of an edge for me. With the Wildcats' QB room less than 100%, I expect Duke's defense to lower the boom and for its offense to do just enough to win the first half. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Northwestern vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

Duke is heavily favored to win this game by as many as 19 points at BetRivers, but the consensus is Duke -18.5. That’s a considerable number to cover for a group with a 1-1 ATS record against a Wildcats side with a 1-1 ATS mark. Here are some additional notes for this game.

Northwestern has some injury issues at QB after Ben Bryant left last week’s game with an upper-body injury, and reserve QB Brendan Sullivan missed last week's matchup. With that said, both are expected to dress Saturday. The Wildcats do have depth at the position, but whoever takes snaps faces a defense allowing 148 passing yards per game.

The Blue Devils may be stingy with air yards, but they allow 169.5 rushing yards per contest and meet a Northwestern offense with a mediocre ground attack averaging 98 rushing yards per game.

Quarterback Riley Leonard doesn’t throw much, but he’s completed 64% of his passes for 311 yards and a TD. Duke has outgained its opponents 429-296 in yardage and meets a Northwestern defense allowing 189 passing yards per game. 

The Wildcats have a robust rushing defense, but they face their biggest test this week. Duke RBs Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore have combined for 290 rushing yards and five TDs. 

The Blue Devils' offensive line hasn’t allowed a sack in their last three contests and is second in the nation in games played and games started. It’ll face a strong test against a Wildcats defense averaging two sacks per game. 

Northwestern vs Duke betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0-1 in the Blue Devils last five home games. Find more college football betting trends for Northwestern vs Duke.

Northwestern vs Duke game info

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