Northwestern vs Rutgers Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Scarlet Knights D Makes Statement

College football has a rich tradition, and that tradition continues Sunday afternoon when the Northwestern Wildcats open their 2023 Big Ten campaign on the road against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

The “Back to the Birthplace” game is part of that tradition. Rutgers hosted the first college football game in history, and Sunday’s contest is a way of honoring this.

Despite winning their last two meetings, Northwestern is a 6.5-point underdog after finishing their 2022 at 1-11. Meanwhile, Rutgers has its sights set on a postseason bowl invitation after a disappointing 4-8 season.

Join me as I break down the college football odds with some free college football picks and predictions for Northwestern vs. Rutgers below.

Northwestern vs Rutgers best odds

Northwestern vs Rutgers picks and predictions

These Big Ten rivals seem to be similar on paper.

The Scarlet Knights are playing at home, where they’re 11-2 over their past 13 home openers. Sunday will be the first time Rutgers has opened its season with a Big Ten opponent, and they’ll have a strong desire to end their two-game losing skid to the Wildcats.

Defense is going to win this game for Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights’ defense ranked 37th in the nation against the pass and 54th against the rush last season. They return five of their front seven with a defensive backfield that could be one of the best in the conference. 

Leading the way will be Bendarik Award candidate Aaron Lewis. Lewis anchors a defensive line stout against the run, and the big fella was their sixth-best tackler in 2022. Lewis is surrounded by experienced athletes and has a solid core of linebackers led by Deion Jennings and Tyreem Powell. Jennings led the team in tackles (87), and Powell was fourth, with a second-best three sacks. 

The defensive backfield is experienced and can cover. Robert Longerbeam led the team in picks, and Max Melton snagged two interceptions last season.

Northwestern has a new head coach (David Braun), but offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian kept his job, so at least there is some continuity from last season. 

The Wildcats offense has two returning from the Big Ten’s 11th-ranked offense. Northwestern hasn’t decided on a quarterback — Ryan Hilinski led the team in passing with a pair of 300+ yard throwing games, and Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant has thrown for over 5,000 yards over the past two seasons, splitting time between Eastern Michigan (2021) and Cincy last season. 

The two will likely share time on Sunday, but we should see more of Bryant. The wide receiver room was left empty — sixth-year transfer Cam Johnson has 1,317 receiving yards with 10 TDs during his career, but the rest is unproven. They’ll work behind a completely overhauled offensive line, making it challenging for Northwestern’s leading rusher Cam Porter to do his thing.

Rutgers will get enough stops to cover the -6.5, and it will be up to an offense led by junior quarterback Gavin Wimsatt to finish the job at hand. 

Wimsatt threw for over 700 yards with more interceptions than TDs. He’ll throw to mostly new hands, but TE Johnny Langan grabbed the second-most passes last season with one TD. 

The offensive line should be better than last year. Look for RB Samuel Brown V to do most of the heavy lifting. 

Northwestern returns five starters from 12th best-scoring defense in the conference. They’ll be tough up the middle with a solid secondary, but they’ll have their hands full stopping Brown, and whoever covers Johnson will have to be ready because that young man can motor. 

Finally, this game opened Rutgers -4 and now is -6.5. Had the number been +7, I would've considered taking Northwestern, but laying +6.5 isn’t wise.

A winning margin of 7+ points is the second-most-frequent outcome in college football, and if anyone is going to win by seven points, it will be Rutgers. 

The Scarlet Knights defense will lead the way and stymie an inexperienced Northwestern offense with a quarterback battle on their hands. They’ll get enough stops for the offense to sneak past what should be a pesky Wildcats D and win this game by more than seven points. 

My best bet: Rutgers -6.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Northwestern vs Rutgers same-game parlay

Rutgers 1H Under 19.5 (-108)
Rutgers -6.5 (-112)
Rutgers 1H -3.5 (-110)

+411 at FanDuel

We’ll begin the SGP with Rutgers 1H Under 19.5. There should be some big popping going on Sunday. The jitters and nerves usually have an effect early during ball games, and the defenses are probably two steps ahead of the respective offenses. We are looking for a low scoring Under 19.5 start to our card.

Rutgers 1H -3.5 goes right along with the theme of this piece. It’s going to take some time for the Wildcats offense to become a solid group. They meet an experienced Scarlet Knights defense that will be ready, willing, and able to stop, and Rutgers will muster enough offense to cover the 1H spread. 

Rutgers -6.5 is my best bet and of course it should anchor this card. Rutgers is looking to end a two-game losing streak to Northwestern and the Scarlet Knights defense is going to lead the way and cash this ticket.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Northwestern vs Rutgers spread and Over/Under analysis

Rutgers -6.5 (-110) is the best bet, but the Under 40.5 (-110) at PointsBet is also in play. 

The Rutgers defense is underrated and was one of the best in the nation against the rush and the pass in 2022. This defense has experience, depth, and oodles of talent- — it will make life miserable for Bryant and Porter.

Northwestern doesn’t return the same experience nor enjoy the same defensive success, but it could still cause real trouble for Rutgers.

In the game notes, Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano mentioned the Wildcats group, stating how strong Northwestern’s defense would be up the middle and how good the defensive backfield is. 

“I think the thing you've got to remember is they have a lot of experienced players. On defense, they are really strong up the middle. You know, the two safeties, the two linebackers, are really experienced. The McLaughlin kid who plays D-end is an experienced guy. We are talking about fourth-year starters, third-year starters, so when half your defense has played that much football, they are going to be ready to play.” (Source collegepressbox)

Wimsatt has had turnover issues in the past, and with the Scarlet Knights having an edge in the trenches, expect Schiano to establish the run and win the game behind Brown. 

We should also expect Northwestern to work their offense behind the power running of Porter. Bryant isn’t a mobile QB at all, the Wildcats offensive line is a work in progress, and facing a defense as stout as Rutgers should make for a long day for the Northwestern offense.

Finally, Sunday is going to be all about the Rutgers defense. This defensive group knows they must make the stops, and I believe they will. I don’t trust the Scarlet Knights' offense much at all,  but I do like the ground game, and hopefully, the clock will roll, and the game ends Under 40.5 -110 at PointsBet. 

Northwestern vs Rutgers betting trend to know

Northwestern has only hit the first-quarter Over in one of its last nine games (-7.75 units / -76% ROI), and Northwestern has not won any of its last eight games (-12.70 units / -100% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Northwestern vs Rutgers.

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