Notre Dame has rebuilt its College Football Playoff hopes after an early season upset loss, but Navy has returned to prominence with an undefeated start to the season.
In my Notre Dame vs. Navy predictions, I’m expecting the Fighting Irish’s NFL talent to be the difference in a matchup with a surprising spread. Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 26.
Notre Dame vs Navy predictions
Early spread lean
Notre Dame -12.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This spread being just 12.5 points is a bit of a surprise when considering one team looks like it is headed to the College Football Playoff — and has a win over No. 14 Texas A&M — and the other is a Group of Five team whose best win was over a Memphis team that’s just 59th in SP+.
So, while the Navy Midshipmen once again looks like a G5 power, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish being favored by less than two touchdowns seems a little odd. I would have thought the Midshipmen would be closer to a 17-point underdog.
That’s why I’m happily taking Notre Dame to cover. Though they did lose to Northern Illinois earlier in the year, the Fighting Irish have rebounded well with five straight wins while going 4-1 ATS.
Clearly, this Notre Dame offense has found its identity and has become one of the top rushing attacks in the country. Riley Leonard has the offense ranked 18th in SP+ with him, Jeremiyah Love, and Jadarian Price being a three-headed monster on the ground.
Those three have combined for 1,247 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns in just seven games and should be able to expose a Midshipmen defense that struggles to stop the run. Navy is just 84th in EPA per rush on defense and allowing 165.2 rushing yards per game.
Given Notre Dame is eighth in EPA per rush on offense and averaging 209.6 yards on the ground per game, I think the Fighting Irish will be able to run wild on Navy.
And on the other side, the Midshipmen haven’t had to go up against a defense like the Fighting Irish’s this season. While Navy’s Blake Horvath is the best triple option QB they’ve had in years, running into Notre Dame’s front seven is a lot different than running against an AAC team.
Notre Dame is fifth in SP+ on defense and allowing the 10th-fewest yards per game (279.0). Navy just won’t be able to put up enough points to cover.
I’m expecting a 38-20 win for the Irish.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 52.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It used to be that taking the Under on a triple option service academy team was the smart way to go about it, but this Navy team has bucked that trend.
The Midshipmen are 6-0 betting the Over this season and have twice had game totals higher than this one — 56.6 against UAB and 57.5 against Charlotte.
Between Navy’s penchant for explosive plays on offense and inconsistencies on defense, I think they’ll hit the Over again and wouldn’t be surprised if this game total moves up a point or two by kickoff on Saturday.
The Midshipmen are 65th in SP+ on defense and against their only opponent this season that ranks tTop 40 in SP+ on offense (Memphis), they allowed 44 points. That includes giving up 371 passing yards to Tigers QB Seth Henigan and over 100 yards to two different running backs.
With Leonard, Love, and Price toting the rock, Navy’s going to have a difficult time containing the run. All three of them have over 250 rushing yards after contact this season and have combined to force 69 missed tackles, per PFF.
Navy’s likely going to need to sell out to stop the run, which should make things easier on Leonard as a passer. After a slow start to the season, he’s been far more consistent through the air as of late with three straight games registering an adjusted completion rate of 75% or better while throwing five touchdowns to just one interception.
While Notre Dame is going to do the majority of the work to hit this Over, Navy should be able to score enough to support it.
Horvath is one of the most electric runners in the country with the third-most rushing yards among QBs (643) and the second-most 15-yard-plus runs (10). He’s also been an efficient passer with just three turnover-worthy plays — Navy’s even seventh in the country in EPA per dropback.
Points will be scored, just not enough for Navy to cover.
Notre Dame vs Navy live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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