Notre Dame vs Ohio State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Irish Unlucky at the Horseshoe

The Marcus Freeman era at Notre Dame kicks off in earnest this Saturday but the schedule makers are tossing Freeman and his Fighting Irish right into the briar patch, as they travel to Columbus to take on Ohio State.

Playing at the Horseshoe is always tough but this season could be even tougher. This might be the best offense Ryan Day has ever had at Ohio State, led by quarterback and Heisman favorite C.J. Stroud. And, making your first career start in Columbus is no small task but it's exactly what is in front of Tyler Buchner.

It may be a matchup of Top-5 teams but college football odds are telling us there is a much bigger gap between these programs than the rankings would indicate. However, is 17-points too disrespectful to the Golden Domers?

Find out in my free best college football picks and predictions for this Week 1 battle between Notre Dame and Ohio State.

Notre Dame vs Ohio State best odds

Notre Dame vs Ohio State picks and predictions

My best bet: Ohio State -17 (-110 at Caesars)

For my money, Ohio State is the second-best team in the country behind only Alabama, and the Buckeyes' offense might be the best in the entire country.

Stroud is the Heisman trophy favorite, but it’s the combination of Stroud, running back TreVeyon Henderson, and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba that could make this most lethal offense in college football this season.

Stroud is coming off a season where he threw for over 4,000 yards with 44 touchdowns and six interceptions, and there is still room for improvement.

Henderson can take the next step in his development, as well, and be the latest in the long line of great Buckeyes running backs after rushing for 1,248 yards and 15 scores a year ago.

And, normally, you would think the loss of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave would crush a team’s wide receiver depth, but did you see what Smith-Njigba did without them in the Rose Bowl? (15 catches for 347 yards and three scores, if you live under a rock.)

Notre Dame's offense might be the polar opposite of Ohio State. Freeman did a great job keeping offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, but he's a conservative play caller who has to replace his starting quarterback and his starting running back.

Senior wideout Avery Davis was lost for the season to a torn ACL, so there isn’t much playmaking behind tight end Michael Mayer. On top of that, All-American center Jarrett Patterson is questionable to play with a foot injury.

So, an offense with a ton of questions is going against a revitalized and talented defense under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who has come over from Oklahoma State.

Notre Dame should be strong in the trenches this year, but the back end has some holes, none bigger than the loss of do-it-all safety Kyle Hamilton. So, Stroud will have an opportunity to attack this defense downfield. 

Most importantly, if Notre Dame gets down, and I expect it will, it doesn't have the horses to keep up with this Ohio State offense. I think the Irish will be a good team this season, but this is a bad matchup for them.

I expect this Buckeyes team, Top 3 in National Championship odds, to be in the title conversation all season long and get off to a good start in this matchup.

Notre Dame vs Ohio State betting preview

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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

When this line first hit the board all the way back in May, the Buckeyes were listed as 14.5-point favorites. Since then, the line has moved to the current 17, and despite this being a matchup of two Top-5 teams, this line is not shocking when you look at it.

A large part of lines is based on quarterbacks and the difference between the two in this matchup is huge. Stroud is the favorite to win the Heisman for a reason. It won’t be a shock if this Ohio State offense averages 40 points per game when all is said and done this season.

While Buchner has potential and could be a solid quarterback for the Irish this season, he is making his first career college start in one of the toughest venues in the sport. On top of that, outside of Mayer, Notre Dame just doesn’t have anywhere near the level of playmakers that the Buckeyes do. 

This number seems large, but it won’t by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. 

Over/Under analysis

This total hit the board at 58 and has inched up to 59 and while I don’t have a strong play on this number, if I had to lean one way, it would be towards the Under. A big reason for that is because I’m not sure if the Irish are going to be able to do their part in this one.

For starters, I’ve spoken at length about how the Irish just don’t have a whole lot of difference makers on offense and have an inexperienced quarterback under center. While the Ohio State defense struggled at times last season, Notre Dame isn’t built to attack its weaknesses.

Additionally, it is reasonable to think that Rees will want to slow down this game as much as possible. They saw the teams that had success against the Buckeyes controlled the line of scrimmage. So, run the ball, milk the clock, and shorten the game.

Notre Dame vs Ohio State game info

• Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Notre Dame vs Ohio State key injuries

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Notre Dame vs Ohio State weather

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Notre Dame vs Ohio State betting trend to know

Ohio State has performed well early in the season recently, going 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight September games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Ohio State.

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