Oregon State vs Notre Dame Props for Sun Bowl: The Replacements Can't Replicate Offense

Prop bet #1: Notre Dame Under 25.5 points

Notre Dame came into this one having ripped off four wins in its final five regular season games, averaging a whopping 46 points per game over that stretch.

Its only blemish was a 31-23 loss to Clemson — the only game the Irish failed to score at least 45 points.

But when they take the field at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, that offensive machine will be short major parts, which helped the team average 39.1 points, the eighth-best mark in college football.

Start at quarterback: Sam Hartman is out as he's preparing for the next level; the senior pivot led the team with almost 2,700 yards passing while throwing 24 TDs to just eight interceptions. Left in his wake is Steve Angeli, who threw all of 25 passes this season for 272 yards, four scores, and a pick.

His case as ND starter in 2024 begins now, but he’ll have to watch his blindside, especially since all-American left tackle Joe Alt is also sitting to prepare for the NFL draft.

Alt’s absence also alters the run game, which is without leading rusher Audric Estime as he — you guessed it — focuses on the draft. That’s 1,341 yards and 18 touchdowns gone, with Jeremiyah Love the next leading rusher with 346 yards.

Notre Dame has gaping holes to fill. While it will still be able to score, it won't be at its usual clip.

Notre Dame prop: Notre Dame team total Under 25.5 points (-145 at DraftKings) 25% live boost available

Prop bet #2: Oregon first-half Under 8.5 points

The only good news for the Oregon State Beavers is that Ben Gulbranson is their third-string QB, with starter DJ Uiagalelei in the transfer portal while backup Aidan Chiles went to Michigan State — the same landing spot for former Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith, who was replaced by Trent Bray.

However, Bray is so busy with recruiting, building a staff, and trying to put together a schedule for a program stuck in the two-team Pac-12 next year that he won’t even be coaching this game.

Gulbranson was a pretty good starter for OSU as a redshirt freshman in 2022, going 7-1 while also delivering in the Las Vegas Bowl, helping Oregon State crush Florida 30-3, and taking home MVP honors in the process.

The bad news is Gulbranson, who’s thrown one pass all year, is a thumb plugging the hole in this sinking ship: The offense was powered by the run game, and Damien Martinez (who rushed for 1,185 yards and nine scores this season) is out following a suspension stemming from a November DUI.

While the Beavers' offense is in shambles, Notre Dame brings its mostly intact defense to Texas, one that surrendered just 16.6 ppg, the eighth-lowest total in college football. It's also the fourth-best program against the pass, holding teams to 154.2 yards per game, and sits inside the Top 35 in rushing defense at just 128.3 ypg.

Gulbranson may have some experience, but it’s going to be tough to get up to game speed against this swarming defense. I like the Irish pitching close to a shutout in the first half. 

Oregon prop: Oregon first-half team total Under 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings) 25% live boost available

Prop bet #3: Oregon State first drive - punt

For all the reasons I expect the Beavers’ offense to struggle in the first 30 minutes against that top-shelf Irish defense, let’s double down on the early Oregon State woes and wrap this one up with an opening drive wager.

In its last six regular season games, Oregon State scored points on an opening drive four times, while punting twice.

Unfortunately, two of those scores were by Martinez, and the other was from tight end Jack Velling, who led the team with eight receiving TDs on the year... and is also in the transfer portal, along with second-leading receiver Anthony Gould.

There are just too many pieces missing for the Beavers to march down the field on their first possession.

Oregon prop: Oregon State to punt on first drive (-140 at DraftKings) 25% live boost available