The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in the enviable position of knowing exactly what is at stake: Go on the road today and beat the USC Trojans to earn home-field advantage in the first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
This marks the third time in the last 13 years that the Irish have ended a season in Los Angeles knowing a win would put them into the postseason.
My Notre Dame vs. USC predictions expect the Irish to do just that, with these free college football picks recognizing Notre Dame has been too focused to botch this opportunity. Kickoff comes at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday, November 30, with the game airing on CBS.
Notre Dame vs USC prediction and best bet
Who will win Notre Dame vs USC?
Notre Dame has won nine straight after its embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2, and while most of the Irish opponents have been severely overmatched, credit should be given for just how thoroughly Notre Dame has won. An average margin of victory of 32.6 points catches attention, and rightfully so.
Short fields are not uncommon for Notre Dame, forcing three turnovers that day, part of forcing 26 this season (the most in the country). That warrants noting against USC, guilty of 16 turnovers, No. 77 in the nation.
Trust the Irish to seal their Playoff berth thanks to their overall dominance of late, a dominance that comes in no small part thanks to that havoc-causing defense.
My best bet
Pick: Jeremiyah Love anytime touchdown (-225 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Notre Dame sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love has scored at least once in every game this season. Would the Irish coaching staff emphasize that streak at the expense of a game? Of course not. But would they emphasize it within a game plan? Yes, yes they would.
Love’s streak of 11 straight games with at least one rushing touchdown has tied a Notre Dame record. Cross the goal line this weekend and he will break a record that has stood for 51 years.
Love does not deserve all the credit. The Irish have replaced multiple offensive line starters without flinching this season, becoming a Joe Moore Award semifinalist in the process. Along with quarterback Riley Leonard and a handful of other quality running backs — most notably Jadarian Price — Notre Dame has the No. 3 rushing offense in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per carry.
USC’s rush defense would best be described as middling, ranking No. 53 in EPA. Defensive line depth remains a Trojan want, something that the Irish offensive line should exploit.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame sits No. 3 in the country with 37 rushing touchdowns, tied with Army and only one score behind Boise State and Ashton Jeanty. For context, the Irish have just 17 passing touchdowns this year.
Explosive scores and goal-line scores are both common for this ground game, that lofty EPA number underscoring Notre Dame’s explosive rushing ability. No one is more prone to those moments than Love thanks to his dazzling speed, part of how he has scored seven times in the last four games.
Love will score this weekend, and we set a record in some part because USC’s defense is vulnerable to it.
Notre Dame vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
Jeremiyah Love anytime touchdown
Riley Leonard anytime touchdown
Jeremiyah Love Over 84.5 rushing yards
Notre Dame won't hold back at this point. Win this weekend and the Irish will have three weeks off before that first-round Playoff game.
That workload should land on Leonard’s and Love’s shoulders.
Leonard has rushed for 13 touchdowns this season, notching at least one in eight of 11 games. As for Love, he has cleared this total in each of the last two games and three of the last four, the exception coming only when he was reportedly banged up a bit against Florida State, an outright blowout in which he didn't need to stuff the stat sheet.
There will be no further need to preserve Love. Notre Dame would rather lean on him and send one last message to the Playoff selection committee.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Notre Dame vs USC odds
Notre Dame vs USC live odds
Notre Dame vs USC opening odds
- Notre Dame vs. USC spread: USC -7
- Notre Dame vs. USC moneyline: Notre Dame -160, USC +135
- Notre Dame vs. USC Over/Under: 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Notre Dame vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis
- Summer lookahead lines set Notre Dame as only a 3.5-point favorite.
- Sunday’s genuine lines initially set the Irish as 7-point favorites, a jump that can probably be attributed equally to Notre Dame’s impressive season and USC’s disappointing one.
- That spread quickly climbed to -7.5 by Monday, holding there all week.
- This total hit the market at 50.5 on Sunday and quickly climbed to 51.5, not moving any further week's end.
- 62% of Covers Consensus users are backing Notre Dame on the spread, while 69% are taking the Over.
Notre Dame vs USC betting trend to know
The Fighting Irish have gone 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games, and have done so by an average of 13.1 points. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs USC.
How to watch Notre Dame vs USC game info
| Location: | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-30, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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