Ohio State vs Georgia Prediction: Peach Bowl Odds and Picks

Prior to the start of the season, it would have not been shocking if the Georgia Bulldogs had met the Ohio State Buckeyes in the College Football Playoff National Championship game. Instead, we get this matchup in the national semifinal as these two blue-blood programs meet in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

The Bulldogs are the reigning national champs and have won 15 consecutive games dating back to last season. The feat is made all the more impressive considering the sheer amount of talent that left for the NFL Draft after last season’s championship.

The Buckeyes, on the other hand, had to wait and see if the CFP committee would put them in after losing to rival Michigan in their regular-season finale, missing out on the Big Ten title game and finishing the regular season at 11-1. 

Now, that they're in, can CJ Stroud and the Buckeyes' high-octane offense bounce back? Or will the dominant defending champs prove to be too much to handle? I break it all down and bring you my best bet for the Peach Bowl in my college football picks and predictions. Also, don't forget to take a look at Rohit Ponnaiya's favorite player prop picks for Ohio State vs. Georgia.

Ohio State vs Georgia best odds

Ohio State vs Georgia picks and predictions

Georgia won its first national title since 1980 with last year’s victory over Alabama. And while everyone expected the Bulldogs to be good again this season, I’m not sure many expected this.

For my money, Georgia is the clear-cut best team in the country, which is incredible considering 15 players from last year’s team were selected in the NFL Draft, including eight from a historic defense.

But, led by another potential top draft pick in defensive lineman Jalen Carter, the Bulldogs defense was dominant once again. The team ranked 17th in opponent yards per play and second in scoring defense, giving up just 12.8 points per game. Understandably, Carter and the Georgia defensive front will be a big key to this game.

Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud was a Heisman finalist for a reason and has some excellent weapons at wideout. But this Georgia defense is a different beast.

We saw how the Michigan defensive front wore out the Ohio State offensive line over the course of that game, and forced Stroud into several bad throws, resulting in a pair of interceptions. Carter and the Georgia defense are even better than that.

To make matters worse for the Buckeyes, they could be without their two best running backs. TreVeyon Henderson has had season-ending surgery while Miyan Williams has battled multiple injuries and an illness leading up to this game. Even though Ohio State has a great running back room, this certainly doesn’t help. And you definitely don’t want your offense becoming one-dimensional against this Georgia defense.

On the other side, the Bulldogs are led by quarterback Stetson Bennett, who has already attained folk hero status around Athens and could get a statue outside of Sanford Stadium if they can go back-to-back.

While Georgia is generally known for its defense, the offense hasn’t been too shabby, ranking fourth in the nation in yards per play. Bennett — the team's heart and soul — is smart with the football and is good enough to attack the biggest weakness of this Buckeyes’ defense: the deep ball. 

We saw Michigan QB JJ McCarthy hit the Buckeyes for several deep balls and Bennett is more than capable of airing it out.

Simply put, Michigan is Georgia Lite. 

I expect Stroud and the Buckeyes to put up some numbers, but the Georgia defense will make more plays when it matters most. The Bulldogs will force Stroud into some turnovers, giving Bennett and the Bulldogs offense a short field a few times and they’ll take advantage. I’m expecting a double-digit win for the Dawgs and getting them at less than a touchdown looks like a solid value to me.

My best bet: Georgia -6.5 (-104 at Pinnacle)

Ohio State vs Georgia spread analysis

The spread for the Peach Bowl opened with Georgia favored by a converted touchdown, but that number didn’t last long and has sat at the current number of 6.5 for the last several weeks leading up to the big matchup in the national semifinal.

This is a really interesting spread for many reasons. It is rare in this day and age to be getting Ohio State as nearly a touchdown underdog. The last time it was getting any points was in the national championship two years ago when Alabama was favored by 9.5 points.

So, it can be very tempting to consider taking the points with the Buckeyes in this spot. But at the same time, we only have to lay less than a touchdown with Georgia, which is rare in its own right over the last couple of seasons. Not shockingly, those instances also came against Alabama.

But once again, there is a reason the Dawgs are laying points. They are the most complete team and have already shut down some of the country's top offenses in Oregon and Tennessee. While there were a few minor slip-ups, this Georgia team has put on its best performances when it matters most. 

Well, it matters most now. 

Ohio State vs Georgia Over/Under analysis

The total for the Peach Bowl hit the board at 60.5 and the early money has come in on the Over, bumping the number up to 62.5. That doesn’t seem too high when you consider this is a matchup of Top 10 offenses. But Georgia’s defense is the real difference-maker. 

The Bulldogs held the Oregon offense to three points. They held Tennessee to 13. It would not be shocking to see the Dawgs do something similar to the Buckeyes. But there is also a chance the Bulldogs could get up big and let off the throttle a bit, allowing a very good Ohio State offense to put up some points, kind of like what happened with LSU in the SEC title game.

Would I be shocked if Ohio State made some plays and put up points to keep this game close for a while? No, I would not. For me, there is a reasonably wide variance in how the scoring could go in this game. So, I’ll stick with the Bulldogs spread and stay away from the total.

In-play microbetting trends for Georgia vs Ohio State

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Georgia

Offensive score Yes: 13/26 (50%)
Offensive score No: 13/26 (50%)

Punts: 8/26 (30.7%)
TDs: 11/26 (42.3%)
FG attempts: 3/26 (11.5%)
TOs: 4/26 (15.3%)

Georgia had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Ohio State

Offensive score Yes: 16/33 (48.4%)
Offensive score No: 17/33 (51.5%)

Punts: 13/33 (39.3%)
TDs: 14/33 (42.4%)
FG attempts: 2/33 (6.1%)
TOs: 4/33 (12.1%)

Ohio State vs Georgia betting trend to know

Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games while Georgia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 bowl games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ohio State vs. Georgia.

Ohio State vs Georgia game info

Ohio State vs Georgia latest injuries

Ohio State vs Georgia weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic