Ohio State vs Northwestern Odds, Picks and Predictions: Stroud Fronts Another Buckeyes Blowout

No. 2-ranked Ohio State plays its second consecutive road game when they travel to Evanston to face Northwestern. Last week, the Buckeyes won by their second-smallest margin all year, defeating Penn State 44-31 in Happy Valley. 

Now, OSU will face the worst team in the Big Ten in the Northwestern Wildcats. Northwestern is just 1-7 and 1-4 in Big Ten play, with its only win coming against a hapless Nebraska squad. 

Can Northwestern give Ohio State another scare or will the Buckeyes continue to roll? Continue reading for college football picks and predictions below to find out.

Ohio State vs Northwestern best odds

Ohio State vs Northwestern picks and predictions

Ohio State and quarterback C.J. Stroud faced their toughest test of the season with No. 16 Penn State. PSU led by two going into the fourth quarter and then the Buckeyes turned it on, scoring 28 fourth-quarter points and escaping with a 44-31 victory. 

Stroud finished the day 26-33 for 354 yards and a touchdown, though critics thought it wasn’t his best performance. As a result, Stroud has dropped in the odds to win the Heisman. The season-opening favorite is now second behind Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker. 

Though Stroud has said individual awards don’t mean anything to him, I believe he is going to be motivated to have a better game on Saturday. Who else better to take your frustrations out on than 1-7 Northwestern? FanDuel has Stroud's passing yard total set at 293.5 and I believe the Over is a great play this weekend. 

The Wildcats are 94th in total defense, allowing an average of 407.1 yards per game. They are 54th in passing defense, allowing an average of 220.8 yards per game. 

Stroud is 12th in the nation in passing yards and first in touchdowns with 29. He also has the highest QB rating at 200.2. 

It’s true that Stroud hasn’t seen a lot of the fourth quarter this season. The junior has only played the entire fourth quarter twice this year, the first game against Notre Dame and last week against the Nittany Lions. 

The Buckeyes' schedule hasn’t been too strenuous. In the six other games, Stroud gets the team ahead by a wide margin and then backup Kyle McCord comes in midway through the final quarter to mop up. 

There would be a concern that Stroud couldn’t get to the Over of 293.5 because of his relief in the fourth quarter, but he's exceeded 300 yards in all three games in which he missed the entire fourth quarter.

I believe Stroud will have another 300-yard passing day and the Buckeyes will cruise to another win. Stroud will again be on the sidelines as a spectator as the clock runs out. 

My best bet: C.J. Stroud Over 293.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Ohio State vs Northwestern spread analysis

Laying 38.5 points is going to make any gambler nervous but it shouldn’t with Ohio State. Of coursem it would have been nice to get the opening line of 30.5, but I  still recommend backing the Buckeyes. 

Ohio State has been winning their games by an average of 32 points. In games they have played similar competition to Northwestern (Arkansas State, Toledo, and Rutgers) they had spreads of 45, 31, and 40 points. They covered all three. 

The Buckeyes have two weapons that should be devastating to Northwestern’s defense. The first is the run game, ranking 34th in the country in rushing, averaging 191.5 yards per game. 

Northwestern is 111th in the country in rushing defense. They are allowing an average of 186.4 yards per game. TreVeyon Henderson is leading the Buckeyes with 552 yards and six touchdowns and I suspect he has a big game this weekend. 

The news is a little better for Northwestern in the passing game, ranking 54th in the country in pass defense, allowing an average of  220.8 yards per game. Not only are they going to have to deal with arguably the top QB in the country in C.J. Stroud but they'll have to find ways to limit the  receiving corps of Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Julian Fleming.

Egbuka has a team-best 788 yards along with seven touchdowns, while Harrison Jr. has 783 yards and 10 touchdowns and Fleming has 354 yards and six scores.

Ohio State vs Northwestern Over/Under analysis

The total on this game opened at 61.5 points and dropped quickly to 55.5. It’s a bit of a head-scratcher for me since OSU is No. 2 in the country in points per game, averaging 48.9. 

The Buckeyes have had games in which they have scored 45, 77, 52, 49, 49, and 54 points. 

Northwestern is the problem here. They are 120th in points scored, averaging 17.9 per game. Against Penn State, the team closest to OSU, they managed just seven points. 

If the total is going to go Over, OSU is going to have to do most of the scoring, which is probably exactly what is going to happen. They are stronger than Northwestern on both sides of the ball, so while they will be piling up the points, they are also going to be limiting the Wildcats to possibly single digits. 

The trends are also favoring the Over. For Ohio State, the Over has hit in the Buckeyes' last six games overall.

Surprisingly, Northwestern is also on the Over. In their last six conference games, the Over is 5-1. The Over is also 4-1 in their last five games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 

I think the Wildcats will score at least a touchdown and OSU will get close to, if not beyond 50 points. Take the Over on this game. 

Ohio State vs Northwestern betting trend to know

Ohio State is 7-2 against the spread in their last nine meetings with Northwestern. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ohio State vs. Northwestern.

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