The eyes of the college football universe will be fixated on Eugene this weekend when the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks meet in a Top 3 clash on Saturday.
Both teams enter with 5-0 records, and the winner puts itself in the driver’s seat for the Big Ten title race. I break down my early college football picks for the spread and total in this monumental matchup below.
Ohio State vs Oregon predictions
Early spread lean
Oregon +3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This Ohio State Buckeyes offense has yet to be truly tested. Iowa caused some problems last week, holding the Buckeyes to just one touchdown before halftime before falling apart in the third quarter. Still, even the Hawkeyes can’t compare to what the Oregon Ducks will bring to the table.
Oregon ranks third in PFF’s pass coverage grading so far this season and 11th in pass rush. The Ducks have the 13th-best sack rate, are holding opponents to just 5.3 yards per pass, and rank in the Top 15 in EPA against the run and pass.
On the other hand, Oregon’s going to face by far its toughest test of the season. The Buckeyes rank Top 5 in a plethora of offensive metrics, including EPA/rush, third-down success, and early down EPA. Will Howard has numerous weapons surrounding him, and Oregon may have a hard time taking them all away.
These two have had one common opponent, and they put up similar performances against Michigan State, but the big difference was in the passing game.
The Buckeyes have two terrific receivers in Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. They each caught at least five passes for 83+ yards in the win, and both receivers have already caught at least 23 balls for more than 430 yards apiece.
Oregon receiver Tez Johnson caught 10 of his team’s 21 completed passes against Michigan State, and he’s got 43 catches on the season. His teammates all have fewer than 20 receptions.
I expect Ohio State to key on Johnson and force Dillon Gabriel to look elsewhere. The Buckeyes rank Top 2 in EPA against both the run and pass, and have held four of its five opponents to a touchdown or less. They also have the best sack rate in college football.
Ohio State is the better team and I expect them to win, but this feels like a tight game that's decided by a field goal. I’d lean toward taking the Ducks and the points.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 52.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This is a matchup of two elite defenses, but I think there will be plenty of points scored. The aforementioned games against Michigan State are a key reason why.
Michigan State is one of the worst teams in college football inside the red zone, and its offense turned the ball over multiple times against both teams. The Spartans fumbled the ball away at the goal line in the first half last week, a touchdown that could’ve changed how the game played out.
The week before, Sparty committed three first-half turnovers in the red zone against Ohio State. Without those turnovers, both games likely top the 50-point mark.
The Buckeyes lead the nation in red-zone scoring and have the best EPA/rush mark in college football. Ohio State tore apart Iowa’s run defense last week, gaining over 200 yards against a defense that had yet to allow 90 to anyone on the ground. Oregon’s run defense will have its hands full with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.
Ashton Jeanty ran for 192 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries against this Oregon defense in a 37-34 defeat, and that was without the receiving weapons possessed by Ohio State.
Oregon has an offense that can keep the chains moving, and Jordan James will be the best back the Buckeyes have faced this season. Kaleb Johnson found success against the Buckeyes on the ground last week, rushing for 86 yards on 15 carries as the Buckeyes won 35-7.
However, Iowa’s anemic passing attack prevented it from being competitive. Ohio State won’t get that same luxury against an Oregon passing attack that ranks first in completion rate and 19th in yards per pass.
There are too many weapons on both sides of the ball for me to see this game being a low-scoring affair. I also wouldn’t be shocked by a defensive score at some point, with how well these teams cause havoc when rushing the passer.
Ohio State vs Oregon live odds
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