In one of the biggest games of the college football season, Ohio State heads to Happy Valley to take on Penn State in a battle of two Top 4 teams.
In our Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions, we’re expecting a close game led by two devastating defenses with a potential trip to the Big Ten Championship on the line. Read more in our college football picks for Saturday, November 2.
Ohio State vs Penn State predictions
Early spread lean
Penn State +4 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes are ranked No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, neither program has quite lived up to it this season. Both teams are 3-4 ATS and have had hiccups along the way.
With that said, Penn State is built to keep this game close, assuming starting QB Drew Allar is healthy enough to play. The Nittany Lions defense is one of the best in the country — third in SP+ — and should be able to slow the Buckeyes’ offensive attack enough to cover the spread.
The loss of potential All-American left tackle Josh Simmons to a season-ending injury has clearly affected Ohio State’s offense. The Buckeyes only put up 285 total yards and 21 points against a Nebraska defense that’s eighth in SP+.
The run game was non-existent in the four-point win, and Will Howard was constantly under pressure. Ohio State’s biggest question coming into the season was the offensive line, and taking the best player out of its front has thrown the offense out of whack.
That was against a Nebraska front seven that might have a player or two drafted, so taking on the Nittany Lions’ front seven will be an issue. Both Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton (assuming he’s healthy enough to play) have 20-plus pressures this season and are likely Top-75 picks in the NFL draft.
Obviously, Penn State will need to score to some extent, and that’s why the Nittany Lions covering hinges on Allar being healthy. He has James Franklin’s team ranked fourth in the country in EPA per dropback and he’s been one of the most efficient QBs in college football this season.
Allar is Top 20 in the nation in adjusted completion rate (78.1%) and is one of just three QBs with eight-plus big-time throws and fewer than five turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
If he can suit up, I expect Penn State to cover, but Ohio State to win somewhere in the ballpark of 23-20. If Allar can’t go, I’d expect the Buckeyes to cover this spread — it will also likely move closer to six points if that’s the case
Early Over/Under lean
Under 47.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
These teams aren’t all that different. Both play tremendous defense, are led by QBs who are more efficient than spectacular, and have a pair of running backs that will be playing on Sundays in the future.
With the way both defenses have played, it’s unsurprising that this total is below 50. Ohio State is actually just 3-4 betting the Under this season, but in all three games in which the total has been below 50, it's hit.
Meanwhile, Penn State is 5-2 betting the Under and is similarly 4-0 when the game total is below 50.
Both defenses are Top 3 in SP+, and while the offenses are both Top 15, the matchups will be difficult with neither QB being dynamic.
The Nittany Lions' top running back Nicholas Singleton has been banged up as of late, and running into a defense that’s No. 3 in EPA per rush and holding opponents to the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game in the country (91.3) will be nearly impossible to overcome.
If the Buckeyes can shut down the run, it will allow their pass rush to get after Allar, who isn’t a major threat as a runner. Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have combined for 43 pressures this season with both having a pass rush win rate better than 13%.
Those two are a major reason why the Buckeyes defense is ranked third in EPA per dropback and allowing the eighth-fewest passing yards per game this season (163.1).
Ohio State will have a tough time moving the ball, too. Especially on the ground with the Nittany Lions ranked ninth in EPA per rush on defense and giving up the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (93.0).
The impact of losing Simmons can’t be overstated, and it was a constant problem against the Cornhuskers, so Penn State will almost certainly exploit the Buckeyes’ offensive line problems.
This is going to be a grind-it-out game that lacks explosive gains and comes down to whichever defense makes more plays. I wouldn’t be shocked if the game total drops down another point or two
Ohio State vs Penn State live odds
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