There wasn’t a dominant team in college football this season... until the Ohio State Buckeyes hit the College Football Playoff, obliterating Tennessee and Oregon in the first two rounds.
As I look forward to the Cotton Bowl kicking off tonight, my Ohio State vs. Texas predictions show that the spread is a little too large and that if anyone is up to the task of stopping this newfound behemoth, it's the Texas Longhorns.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, with the game airing on ESPN.
Ohio State vs Texas prediction and best bet
- Moneyline: Texas (+185 at BetMGM)
- Spread: Texas +6 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Total: Under 53.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best Bet: Texas +6 (-110 at BetMGM)
Ohio State vs Texas moneyline
This is a straight-value play to me. Have the Ohio State Buckeyes looked like the best team in the country since the playoffs started? Yes. Can they lose the Cotton Bowl? Also yes.
Remember Ohio State and the Texas Longhorns ended the regular season ranked first and second, respectively, in EPA margin. This spread is too big and I would still prefer to have Steve Sarkisian and Quinn Ewers in a big game over Ryan Day and Will Howard.
This essentially will be a home game for the Longhorns playing at the Cotton Bowl. The Longhorns will ride that home crowd and Bevo to pull off the upset and earn a spot in the national championship.
Ohio State vs Texas spread
This spread has a whole lot of recency bias baked into it. Undoubtedly, Ohio State has looked like the best team in the country in the first two rounds of the College Football Playoff, dismantling Tennessee 42-17 at home before exacting revenge on Oregon, crushing the undefeated Ducks 41-21 in a game that was over before halftime.
Meanwhile, Texas needed overtime to beat a scrappy Arizona State team. So, when this line opened at Buckeyes -4.5 it wasn’t surprising to see it jump to -6. But if there is a team that can match Ohio State's talent level, it’s Texas.
These teams are much closer than this line indicates.
Ohio State vs Texas total
The total has come down a point since opening at 54.5 and I agree with the early money.
This is a matchup between two excellent defenses. Ohio State ranks first in opponent EPA per play while Texas ranks third. The Buckeyes’ pass rush has looked scary in the playoff while the Longhorns excel at limiting explosive plays, which is what OSU has leaned on in the first two rounds.
Both teams know establishing the run and controlling the line of scrimmage will be keys to securing the victory.
My best bet
Texas +6 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
I just can’t get past this spread. It feels like this number is only taking recent performances into account and not evaluating these teams' respective overall seasons.
Yes, the Ohio State Buckeyes look great. Dominating Tennessee and Oregon is no joke and cannot be taken lightly. But this is also a team that threw up all over itself at home against rival Michigan in a game where the Buckeyes were 20-point favorites. What did the Wolverines do in that game? They controlled the clock with the run game and limited explosive plays.
Those are areas where the Texas Longhorns excel.
Texas has an underrated defense that ranks 20th in success rate and third in opponent EPA per play. While Ohio State has the likes of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka to throw to on the outside, I wouldn’t get too pass-happy against this Longhorns defense.
Texas ranks third in the country in EPA per dropback and fourth in success rate on dropbacks. Now, Will Howard needs a shoutout because he’s been very effective in the playoff, but it will be interesting to see how he holds up against arguably the best defensive front seven he’s seen all season.
Speaking of quarterbacks, we're starting to see the best version of Quinn Ewers once again. Ewers torched Michigan at The Big House back in Week 2, throwing for 246 yards and three touchdowns in a game that was over at halftime.
However, Ewers got injured the following week against UTSA and hasn’t looked right for a while. That is, until the last month or so.
Ewers looked great in the win over Arizona State, throwing for 322 yards and three touchdowns. He was efficient against Clemson, completing more than 70% of his passes for 202 yards. And despite the loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, he threw for 358 yards.
Yes, Ohio State also has an excellent pass defense, but I’ll side with the healthy-looking Ewers and head coach Steve Sarkisian over Howard and Ryan Day.
Mix in what will basically be a home-field field advantage for the Longhorns and this spread feels too big. If these teams played on a neutral site at the start of the playoff, I think we would be seeing a line closer to a pick’em.
Ohio State vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas +5.5
Quinn Ewers 2+ passing touchdowns
Jeremiah Smith 100+ receiving yards
I'm doubling down on the “Quinn Ewers is back” narrative and adding him to toss two touchdown passes in the Cotton Bowl.
As a single wager, Over 1.5 TD passes is available at plus money and that has my attention. Ewers threw multiple touchdown passes in each of his first eight games this season and tossed three more in the Peach Bowl against Arizona State.
Texas has also shown its offense is at its best when it's balanced. If the Longhorns can run the ball, Ewers will make some plays. There are also a few avenues to a win here. One is Ewers has a great game. Alternately, Ohio State keeps dominating and we get some garbage time touchdowns.
Also, this is long enough into this preview without talking about Jeremiah Smith. He’s arguably the most talented player in the country as a true freshman and is a big reason why Ohio State has looked so good in the playoff.
Smith has hauled in 13 receptions for 290 yards and four touchdowns in the first two playoff games for the Buckeyes. He’s topped 100 yards in both of those games and has hit the century mark in three of his last five games overall. I’m betting he stays hot and hits it again.
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Ohio State vs Texas State odds
Ohio State vs Texas live odds
Ohio State vs Texas opening odds
- Texas vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State -4.5
- Texas vs. Ohio State moneyline: Texas +185, Ohio State -225
- Texas vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 54.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ohio State vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
- Ohio State opened the Cotton Bowl at -4.5 and bettors immediately jumped on that, moving the spread to 6.5 before settling back down to 6.
- This spread appears to be full of recency bias. Ohio State has looked great and Texas struggled against Arizona State. But these may be the closest teams in the country in terms of roster talent.
- The total hit the board at 54.5 and has been bet down slightly to 53.5.
- I would lean toward the early money. This is a matchup of two excellent defenses and I could see both teams trying to establish the run.
- 62% of Covers Consensus users are backing Ohio State on the spread, while 70% are taking the Over.
Ohio State vs Texas betting trend to know
Texas has covered the first-half spread in their last eight games for +8.00 units and a 86% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs Ohio State.
How to watch Ohio State vs Texas game info
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Friday, 1-10-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Ohio State vs Texas latest injuries
The Texas Longhorns got some good news on the injury front this week. Head coach Steve Sarkisian told reporters during his press conference on Thursday that starting right tackle Cameron Williams is expected to play after missing the Peach Bowl against Arizona State.
The Longhorns are being a little more tight-lipped about the status of wide receiver Isaiah Bond. Bond was limited against the Sun Devils after spraining his ankle against Clemson in the first round.
Meanwhile, it sounds like we won’t be getting a pregame injury report from Ohio State. The Buckeyes should have all their key players available outside of starting offensive linemen Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin, who have already been out of action since November.
Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.
Ohio State vs Texas weather
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