Ohio vs Ball State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bobcats Use Pass Game to Beat Cardinals

The Ohio Bobcats and the Ball State Cardinals meet up Tuesday evening for another round of MACtion.

It's been a good season for the Bobcats this year, and, by most accounts, they've overachieved. They are now 7-3 on the season and have ripped off five straight wins, with all but two coming by double digits.

The Cardinals enter this matchup the much cooler team. They'll look like they'll make a bowl — just one win away from doing so — but they have lost two of their last three. In addition, they came to this one off a 7-point loss to Toledo last Tuesday.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our college football betting picks and predictions for Ohio vs. Ball State.

Ohio vs Ball State best odds

Ohio vs Ball State picks and predictions

This one means a lot for both teams. A win for Ohio means it's clinched a spot in the MAC Championship. A win for Ball State means it's clinched a bowl bid. I have to roll with the Bobcats as I expect them to keep rolling.

The best player on the field on Tuesday night will be playing for Ohio. QB Kurtis Rourke may win the MAC Offensive Player of the Year, and it would be hard to argue against it. He's thrown for over 3,000 yards on the season and leads the conference in both passing yards and touchdowns.

However, Ohio's passing prowess is the most significant factor in this game and will highlight my handicap. Why? Because of what the defense on the other side of the ball offers up.

I have questions about the Cardinals' defense. They rank second in the conference in passing efficiency, but I think that number is skewed. There are two reasons for this primarily.

One is because they've been so horrid defending the run (allowing 185 yards per game, last in the conference) that teams run less against them. The other is because they've yet to face many passing attacks like the one they'll meet Tuesday. When they've seen them, they've struggled. 

Toledo is the highest-ranking passing offense that Ball State has faced in the MAC at sixth overall. That doesn't hold much of a candle to the Ohio passing offense that ranks No. 1, but even it was able to throw for over 300 yards in a win. Georgia Southern is a team the Cardinals faced out of conference with another prolific passing offense and one you'd compare to Ohio's. It also threw for 310 passing yards and scored 34 points in a win.

This spread is about a field goal shorter than it should be. The biggest reason is that Ball State's schedule and rushing defense flaws have skewed some numbers. In this case, it's made its passing defense seem much more effective than it actually is.

Between wideouts Sam Wiglusz, Miles Cross, and Jacoby Jones, Ohio has three receivers that have all nearly collected 500 receiving yards (Cross is just short with 484 yards). That diversity will prove too much for Ball State to overcome. Outside an early-season matchup against Tennessee, it has yet to see a passing attack like this, and I expect it to show. 

My best bet: Ohio -3.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Ohio vs Ball State spread analysis

I'm rolling with the Bobcats to grab a big win on Tuesday night. Beyond the standard spread, I'm looking at a few ways to get more involvement. I'm still deciding whether I'll be attacking via alternate lines or in-game betting, but one of those will be likely. Ohio's high-throttle passing offense will be able to put up droves of points — and I don't think Ball State has the horses to keep up.

The spread for this one opened up with Ohio as a 4.5-point favorite. We've seen a steady stream of money coming in on Ball State. Again, a big part of that is bettors just looking at Ohio's passing numbers, then at Ball State's passing defense and drawing a conclusion. Digging into the basis surrounding those numbers reveals a different story and one that leads you to bet on the other side. 

The Bobcats have won five straight games but more importantly to us, they've covered six consecutive games. On the other hand, The Cards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record. I'm expecting both of those trends to continue when these two meet up on Tuesday.

Ohio vs Ball State Over/Under analysis

The total in this one feels right: consequently, I'm staying off it. I envision two scenarios: 

1. Ohio's offense struggles early on, then gets a late cover via a barrage of points.
2. Ohio's passing attack scores a barrage of points early on, then leans on its rushing game to attack Ball State's most significant flaw and burn the clock. 

Neither is conducive to the Over, but Ohio's trend is different. Seven of the Bobcats' last ten games have gone Over. That's tough to deny. The trend of Ball's State's games going Under in its previous four conference games is equally as tough to deny. That leaves me with the position of staying away from a pregame side.

I'll jump in live on the following numbers if I get them: Over at 44.5 or better, Under at 62.5 or better. Who knows? I could find a bet on both sides, and we can have a fun football night.

Ohio vs Ball State betting trend to know

Ohio is 6-0 ATS in its last six games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ohio vs. Ball State.

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