The Penn State Nittany Lions host the Ohio Bobcats at Beaver Stadium in college football action on Saturday.
These programs last faced off in 2012, with the Bobcats upsetting the Nittany Lions 24-14 as 5.5-point road pups. A lot has changed in the decade since, with both teams looking to rebound from poor campaigns last year. NCAA football betting lines hit the board with PSU as a -27 favorite but have shortened to -25.5.
Here are our best free Ohio vs. Penn State college football picks and predictions for September 10
Ohio vs Penn State best odds
Ohio vs Penn State picks and predictions
The Nittany Lions had a terrific defense last year, while the Bobcats struggled on offense. However, if Week 1 is any indication, both are on opposite trajectories — which isn't priced into this early-season team total for Ohio.
Kurtis Rourke looked terrific against FAU in Week 1 and he has a solid WR duo in the speedy Tyler Walton and the massive James Bostic III. He'll also be well protected behind a strong offensive line that allowed just 22 sacks last season and has four starters with plenty of experience.
The Nittany Lions' defense will take a major step back this season after losing seven starters, and with three new faces on the defensive line, they could have a tough time getting pressure on Rourke. Ohio's offense isn't going to put up a 40-burger like it did last week, but Rourke & co. will be able to do enough to go over this low team total.
My best bet: Ohio team total Over 13.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
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Ohio vs Penn State betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Bobcats opened their season with a 41-38 win against Florida Atlantic, where they covered the spread as 6-point home underdogs. That line looked a tad off, since FAU is just an average Conference USA team, and was traveling to Athens to face an Ohio squad that is in line for a bounce-back season in Tim Albin's second year leading the program.
Albin took over for legendary head coach Frank Solich midway through last July, and a full offseason of preparation will be very beneficial for a Bobcats team looking for improvement from a 3-9 record (their first losing season since 2008).
Ohio's offense struggled last season, finishing last in the MAC in passing yards per game (184.1) while ranking 10th in scoring (22.6 points per game). However, that attack will be much more explosive in quarterback Kurtis Rourke's second year as a starter, with Rourke completing 79.4% of his passes for 345 yards and four scores against FAU.
Penn State also began its year with a close victory, scoring a last-minute touchdown to beat Purdue 35-31 as a 3.5-point road fave. The Nittany Lions started last season with a 5-0 mark before losing six of their last eight games.
Fifth-year senior quarterback Sean Clifford returns to lead the offense after throwing for 3,107 yards and 21 touchdowns last year.
Penn State's defense always seems to retool but will regress from last season, when it held foes to just 5.9 yards per pass attempt (third-best in the country) and 17.3 ppg (sixth-best).
The Nittany Lions lost three starters on the defensive line (including elite pass rusher Arnold Ebiketie), their two best linebackers, and a pair of secondary standouts in Tariq Castro-Fields and Jaquan Brisker.
Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams may have barely won last week but the Overs were never in doubt, with the Bobcats and Owls combining for 954 yards and 79 points while PSU and Purdue hung 66 points on the board.
Clifford was able to attack vertically with 282 passing yards and four scores but the PSU defense surrendered 356 yards through the air. That's good news for Rourke, who showed massive improvement as a passer last week.
Unfortunately, Ohio's defense doesn't look any better than last year's unit which allowed 432.3 yards and 30.3 points per game.
Both of these squads have mediocre defensive lines that could struggle to generate a pass rush which should be very beneficial for a pair of QBs that excelled in Week 1.
Ohio vs Penn State game info
• Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Ohio vs Penn State key injuries
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Ohio vs Penn State weather
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Ohio vs Penn State betting trend to know
The Bobcats are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ohio vs. Penn State.
