Ohio vs San Diego State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: On the Ground Level

There is possibly no greater rush of joy than the one that comes with the return of college football after a long wait during the offseason. 

One highly competitive and intriguing game on tap for Week 0 features two of the better Group of 5 teams around this season — the Ohio Bobcats of the MAC and the San Diego State Aztecs of the Mountain West.

Something new this year in college football is the changes in rules where the clock no longer stops after a first down for the majority of the game. That could be a factor in this game with two teams that like to control the ball offensively.

Looking at college football odds, the total is set at 49 while the Aztecs are a -2.5 favorite. Check out if I agree with those prices with my best bet and stay tuned for my full college football picks and predictions for Ohio vs. San Diego State on Saturday, August 26.

Ohio vs San Diego State best odds

Ohio vs San Diego State picks and predictions

The Ohio Bobcats won 10 games in 2022, the first time they’ve reached double-digit victories since 2011. They appear well-positioned again entering 2023 with the MAC Player of the Year, Kurtis Rourke, returning at quarterback along with 1,000-yard rusher Sieh Bangura and three of his top four wide receivers, including Sam Wiglusz who popped off for 877 yards and 11 touchdowns a year ago. 

One offseason storyline to follow had been Rourke's health after he tore his ACL last November. Reports indicated that he was back to full strength in Fall camp and he’s expected to be 100% in the opener. 

The offensive line should be in good shape, too, as it’s made up of all upperclassmen with four seniors and one junior averaging 315 pounds. 

Now let’s take a look at the San Diego State Aztecs. 

Typically one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country, especially out west, the Aztecs are coming off a disappointing 7-6 season in which they fired their offensive coordinator midway through the year. 

After transitioning to safety, Jalen Mayden made his way back to the quarterback position and shined. Under quarterback coach Ryan Lindley, he led the Mountain West with 8.6 yards per attempt — an incredible feat for a player making a position switch to arguably the most difficult position in sports. 

They get an interesting matchup against an Ohio defense that was terrible to start the year (561 YPG allowed across their first six games of ‘22) but solid to end it (351 YPG across their final seven). The top two tacklers return to this 4-2-5 defense but the line loses three key players, including an All-MAC defensive end and the team’s tackles-for-loss leader. 

These are two quality teams and I expect both to execute their game plans for the most part. Both offenses thrive when they’re able to slow the game down and control the clock, so I do not expect an up-tempo affair considering both teams averaged over 31 minutes in time of possession a year ago. 

Ohio’s offense struggled with just 10 points in each of its two most difficult non-conference tests a year ago against Penn State and Iowa State. San Diego State loses its impact players along the defensive front but returns six of its top seven secondary players, so Ohio is more likely to try to get the ground game going, especially with a quarterback coming off an ACL tear. Even with some losses, this Aztecs defense finished sixth in EPA per play and 19th in success rate a year ago and the 3-3-5 look will be difficult for Ohio to exploit too badly. 

The aforementioned Lindley, now the Aztecs' OC, said his offense is modeled after Utah and I expect plenty of runs and ground control for a team losing its top two wide receivers. The offensive line was poor last year, ranking 119th in line yards and 125th in stuff rate. Considering Ohio’s defensive improvement late last year, I’d be surprised if the Aztecs came out chucking to light up the scoreboard. 

This is a game where the rule changes for clocks not stopping after first downs could come into effect. Both teams run a ball-control offense and will be happy to eat up time off the clock, which sets up well for an Under. 

My best bet: Under 49 (-110 at BetMGM)

Ohio vs San Diego State same-game parlay

Under 48.5

Mark Redman anytime touchdown scorer

+706 at FanDuel

I’m heading over to FanDuel for this two-legger SGP. While these two legs may not seem correlated at first, allow me to explain why I believe they are due to the style of offense I expect to see in this game. 

The first leg features my best bet on the Under. The second leg is for San Diego State tight end Mark Redman to score a touchdown at +250 odds. Lindley expects to run this offense similarly to Utah’s as he learned under Andy Ludwig. That means we can expect plenty of heavy sets and a passing attack centered around its tight ends.

Redman is a talented Washington transfer who was tabbed as a first-team All-Conference selection in the preseason. He repeatedly found the end zone in scrimmages and could do so here in a game script that fits his utility. I like these odds as a single bet as well.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Ohio vs San Diego State spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread moved through a key number and now resides at San Diego State -2.5 across most locations. After hovering around +3.5 for much of the summer, it appears the line move is due to the positive reports of Rourke’s health in camp. It was naturally uncertain how he’d look nine months off ACL surgery but by all reports, he’s full-go in the lead-up to this contest. 

For the Bobcats to grab a cover on the road here, they’ll have to knock precedent to the side as their opponent has had little difficulty in matchups like this. San Diego State is 10-1-1 all-time against MAC opponents.

Still, I have a slight lean toward Ohio as this is not your regular MAC team. The Bobcats showed tremendous growth in Year 2 under Tim Albin. With Rourke among nine returning offensive starters, they shouldn’t be completely shut down by San Diego State and they do have a substantial offensive advantage. 

For two ball-control teams, Ohio’s quarterback is much less mistake prone than his counterpart. Rourke tossed just four interceptions on 353 pass attempts a year ago — only LSU’s Jayden Daniels had fewer interceptions in as many attempts. Mayden, meanwhile, tossed 10 interceptions compared to 12 touchdowns a year ago and turnovers remained an issue at points in offseason practices. 

Ohio vs San Diego State betting trend to know

San Diego State only hit the Over in two of their final seven games a year ago. If you were betting the Over in all those games, you’d have an unseemly -45% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio vs San Diego State.

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