The Colorado Buffaloes will try to keep their slim Big 12 Championship hopes alive as they host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the regular season finales for both teams.
I’m leaning towards the Buffaloes and the Over in this one, as I’ll explain below in my early Oklahoma State vs. Colorado predictions and free college football picks for Friday, November 29.
Oklahoma State vs Colorado predictions
Early spread lean
Colorado -17 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While the Colorado Buffaloes all but sunk their conference title and College Football Playoff hopes with a disappointing loss at Kansas last weekend — a slew of potential Big 12 tiebreaker scenarios notwithstanding — we still have to acknowledge how good a job Deion Sanders did in turning the school’s football program around. The team is 8-3 on the year, and more importantly for bettors, the Buffaloes have been a covering machine this season.
Before last weekend, when Colorado lost outright as a slight favorite, the Buffaloes had covered in eight straight games. It appeared that no matter how many times they outperformed expectations, oddsmakers weren’t catching up to the true strength of this team.
Colorado is obviously star-driven, with two-way sensation Travis Hunter a heavy Heisman Trophy odds favorite and quarterback Shedeur Sanders headed to the pros. While the Buffaloes are one-dimensional on offense, they still score a strong 32.9 ppg, and should have no trouble against an Oklahoma State Cowboys defense that has been among the worst units of any Power 4 team.
The Cowboys are allowing 34.1 ppg, but the more concerning number is the 6.8 yards per play they surrender. Oklahoma State’s defense can’t get off the field with that kind of ball movement, and they’re just as bad against the pass — allowing 8.2 yards per attempt — as they are against the run (5.7 yards per rush).
The line is a little bigger than I’d like to see in this game, and maybe sportsbooks are finally starting to properly rate Colorado compared to weaker opponents. But if the Buffaloes come out and play the way we’ve seen them play at home for most of this season, their offense should do more than enough to cover this spread — and I’ll like it even more if it ticks below 17 points.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 65.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Colorado defense has certainly improved compared to last season, but it’s not exactly shutting down the opposition. Despite Hunter’s heroics, the Buffaloes have been at best mediocre against the pass, and perhaps just slightly better than that against the run. When we combine that with Oklahoma State’s defensive woes, we should expect to see a lot of points in Friday’s game.
The Cowboys are no slouches on offense, either. Running back Avery Morrow has nine touchdowns and is averaging six yards per carry, and while the passing game isn’t efficient, it has put up 279.7 yards per game, ranking 25th in the nation. That has added up to an offense averaging a reasonable 29.6 ppg, and which has also scored 35+ points twice in its last five games. Both of those outbursts came in losses, but against solid opposition in the BYU Cougars and Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Both of those games hit the Over, as have four of Oklahoma State’s last five games overall. The Over is also 5-2-1 in Colorado’s last eight games, and that’s despite quite a few high totals given how the Buffaloes tend to play. Colorado has scored at least 34 points in four of its last five outings, and is highly likely to go well above that total against the Cowboys.
The way these teams are playing, I think it would be foolish to predict anything but a shootout. Colorado will be looking to surpass the 40+ points they’ve recently put on Texas Tech and the Utah Utes, while the shaky Buffalo defense will have trouble holding Oklahoma State below somewhere around 28 points in response. Add that up, and I’m looking at a game that gets into the 70s, hitting the Over on the early total of 65.5 points currently on the market.
I love the Over, and would take it even if it rises a couple of points during the week.
Oklahoma State vs Colorado live odds
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