Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Big 12 Bridesmaids Battle

It's a pseudo-elimination game in the Big 12 on Saturday afternoon when the Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to Manhattan for a showdown with the Kansas State Wildcats. The only teams in the conference aside from TCU without multiple defeats, the loser of this game will drop essentially three games behind the Horned Frogs in the conference standings.

Both programs enter the game with question marks surrounding the health of their signal callers, but one has a clear advantage in that area. Find out why that will be the difference in our Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State college football picks and predictions for Saturday, October 29. 

Oklahoma State vs Kansas State best odds

Oklahoma State vs Kansas State picks and predictions

Adrian Martinez has had a strong season as Kansas State’s starting quarterback. The transfer from Nebraska has thrown for just 907 yards and four touchdowns, but he’s yet to throw a pick after 10 a season ago. But, it’s his running ability that’s been critical to the success of the Wildcats this year, as his 565 yards and nine touchdowns have been a terrific compliment to running back Deuce Vaughn.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats, Martinez is unlikely to be healthy enough for the game on Saturday, as he exited last week’s defeat to TCU after just one series. Dealing with what coaches call a “leg injury,” Martinez is doubtful and will be a “game-time decision” as to whether he can go. 

Should he be out, backup Will Howard will take over. He performed well in his first few series last weekend, as TCU wasn’t prepared. But he, too, was injured later and also threw a costly interception. TCU was able to get its defense regrouped at halftime last week, and Howard was much less successful after the break — even before his injury. 

For Oklahoma State, these are all areas where the Cowboys can thrive. Only six teams in college football average more tackles per loss than their 8.6 per game, and while teams have been able to move the ball on them this season, the Cowboys rank third in third-down defense, allowing just over a 25% success rate. Kansas State is one of the worst teams in the country on third down, and an inability to rely on the two-headed run game would be costly.

On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State will have its quarterback potentially as healthy as he’s been in a long time. Head coach Mike Gundy said earlier this week that Spencer Sanders is feeling much better after he threw for 391 yards and a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns in their comeback win over Texas last Saturday. That’s great news for an offense that will want to take advantage of a Kansas State defense that allowed two touchdowns last week of more than 50 yards through the air, and is allowing more than seven yards per pass attempt on the season.

Kansas State is going to need to rely on Vaughn to carry the team to a win, and while the Cowboys have given up some gaudy rushing totals this season, they’ve shown the ability to kill drives with their disruption in the backfield and get off the field on third down. Oklahoma State is also extremely disciplined, averaging the third-fewest penalties per game in college football.

Oklahoma State will have had a full week to prepare for both Martinez and Howard, and without a healthy Martinez to supplement Vaughn in the run game and protect the football, I’ll gladly take the Cowboys to not only cover the spread but to win outright. 

My best bet: Oklahoma State moneyline (+106 at FanDuel)

Oklahoma State vs Kansas State spread analysis

The markets have shifted a fair amount since the lines opened for this game. Kansas State was actually the underdog at a few books on Sunday, with the line opening fairly even across the board. Money quickly came in on the Wildcats to make them the favorite, although Martinez’s status was unknown at that time. 

Oklahoma State has tasted defeat just once this season, a double-overtime loss at TCU in a game the Cowboys led 30-16 heading into the fourth quarter. This game marks their fourth ranked opponent in the month of October. While they’ve not won many convincingly, the Cowboys have performed well against the sixth-best strength of schedule.

Kansas State ranks just four spots back in SOS, as it also has lost to TCU, with a defeat to Tulane in September. This is just the second home game for the Wildcats since September 17, as well. Kansas State narrowly defeated Iowa State two weeks ago, and a loss on Saturday would put its hopes of a Big 12 title game spot in real peril.

The home team has covered the spread in the last four matchups, while Kansas State has covered the spread against Oklahoma State in four of the last five meetings. However, the underdog has covered the college football odds spread in five of the last seven contests between the two programs. 

Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Over/Under analysis

Surprisingly to me, the total on this game has dropped quite a bit since opening. Depending on the book, the number of 56 is anywhere from two to three points lower than where it sat on Sunday. Much of that is down to the questions surrounding the health of Martinez, no doubt.

But it does offer a possible value for bold bettors. These two teams both thrive offensively inside the 20-yard line, while their defenses rarely get stops inside the red zone. Neither team has a particularly great stop rate either, both ranking near the national average.

Oklahoma State has scored at least 40 points in each of its last four games, while allowing at least 25 points against. Kansas State has had just one game — the 10-9 win over Iowa State — in their last four see fewer than 56 points scored, while its defense has given up at least 28 points in those three games.

The Over is 5-0 in Oklahoma State’s last five contests. More importantly, 12 of the last 16 games between these two programs have seen the Over come through as well. I like the Over to come through once again as long as Kansas State can keep the game close.

Oklahoma State vs Kansas State betting trend to know

The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games between Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State.

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