Oklahoma vs Baylor Picks and Predictions: Big Offenses... But Under Is The Play?

The undefeated Oklahoma Sooners will head on the road this week with their CFP campaign still alive, but they can't afford a slip up in Waco against the Baylor Bears.

The home Bears are 5.5-point college football betting underdogs, but they shouldn't just be considered to cover — an upset could be in store here this weekend. 

Find out how this one will go in our Oklahoma vs. Baylor picks and predictions for Saturday, November 13.

Oklahoma vs Baylor odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Oklahoma opened this game as a 6-point favorite and the line has since gone down to 5.5 at nearly every sportsbook. It’s somewhat interesting that the line is moving that way, as the Sooners are getting most of the early action. The total, which opened at 63, has also generally held tight as well. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Oklahoma vs Baylor picks

• Baylor +5.5 (-110)
• Under 63.0 (-110)

Picks made on 11/09/2021 at 9:49 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Oklahoma vs Baylor game info

• Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
• Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Oklahoma vs Baylor betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Oklahoma: Theo Wease WR (Questionable), Jeremiah Criddell S (Questionable), Cody Jackson WR (Questionable), Kendall Dennis CB (Questionable), Nathan Rawlins-Kibonge DE (Questionable), Woodi Washington DB (Out).
Baylor: Kalon Barnes WR (Questionable), Terrel Bernard LB (Out), Jacob Zeno QB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Baylor is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Baylor.

Oklahoma vs Baylor predictions

Baylor +5.5 (-110)

Baylor is coming off an unacceptable loss to the TCU Horned Frogs, but it’s likely that Dave Aranda’s group got caught looking ahead to this meeting with Oklahoma. The Bears have still covered in six of their last eight games and it wouldn’t be wise to overreact to one bad performance on the road.

This Bears team is allowing just 20.6 points per game this season, which is the 27th-best mark in FBS. Baylor is far from perfect on the defensive side of the ball, but this team has been mostly strong against the run this year. If the Bears can keep Oklahoma running back Kennedy Brooks in check, things might become extremely difficult on freshman quarterback Caleb Williams.

Williams came in and helped the Sooners beat the Texas Longhorns, but this is going to be the toughest game he’s played in which the opposing team had a full week to prepare for him. Look for Aranda to send some pressure and try to make him uncomfortable, and don’t be surprised if this electric crowd rattles him a bit.

Another thing to factor in when looking at this game is that Baylor’s offense is averaging 36.3 points per game this year. That's the 18th-best mark in the country and it now faces a Sooners defense that has given up at least 31 points in four of its nine games this year.

This Oklahoma team is very beatable when facing a good passing game, which is partly because the team doesn’t get a lot of pressure on the quarterback — a surprising truth when considering the talent along the defensive line.

With that in mind, don’t be surprised if Gerry Bohanon makes enough plays to keep his team close in this one. However, Baylor will be looking to win this game outright, and the team has a great chance of doing just that.

Under 63 (-110)

While Baylor should be able to move the ball rather effectively against this Oklahoma defense, it’s still worth mentioning that the Sooners have allowed a total of only 44 points over the last two weeks.

The Bears should have no trouble scoring enough points to win this game, but they aren’t likely to explode for 40+.

When these teams met last year, the two combined to score only 41 in a game with a total of 61. It was the third year in a row that these teams played a game that went Under the total, and all three of those games had totals of at least 61 points.

The Under also happens to be 8-5 when Oklahoma has played as a favorite of 3.5-10 points under Riley. And if that’s not enough to sway you, the Under is also 1-3 when Baylor has played in games with a total between 56.5 and 63 points with Aranda leading the charge.

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