The Oklahoma Sooners are a perfect 4-0 this season, but they now face a Kansas State Wildcats team that has given them nightmares in recent years.
The Wildcats have won two in a row against the Sooners, and they’ll have a home-field advantage when they meet this Saturday in Manhattan, despite being double-digit college football betting favorites.
Will the Wildcats earn another upset over the Sooners? Keep reading our Oklahoma vs. Kansas State picks and predictions for October 2 to get our thoughts.
Oklahoma vs Kansas State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
There’s hasn’t been any movement with the total in this game, as it continues to sit at the opening number of 52.5. The spread has been a different story, with Oklahoma opening as a 10.5-point favorite and now laying 11.5 at most books at the time of writing — despite the consensus being on the Wildcats. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Oklahoma vs Kansas State picks
Picks made on 9/30/2021 at 11:27 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Oklahoma vs Kansas State game info
• Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
• Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Oklahoma vs Kansas State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Oklahoma: Brian Darby WR (Questionable), Danny Stutsman LB (Questionable), Kendall Dennis DB (Questionable), Nathan Rawlins-Kibonge DE (Questionable), Woodi Washington DB (Out), Jalen Redmond DE (Out), Theo Wease WR (Out), Marcus Major RB (Out).
Kansas State: Daniel Imatorbhebhe TE (Questionable), Khalid Duke LB (Out), Jake Rubley QB (Out), Skylar Thompson QB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in Oklahoma's last five games after having allowed 20 or fewer points in its previous game. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Kansas State.
Oklahoma vs Kansas State predictions
Oklahoma -11.5 (-110)
Kansas State has had Oklahoma’s number in recent years, as the Wildcats have beaten the Sooners in back-to-back meetings. However, Kansas State will be without No. 1 quarterback Skylar Thompson in this game — and he has been the one that has given Oklahoma fits over the years.
In 2019, Thompson threw for 213 yards and rushed for 39 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-41 Wildcats victory. Thompson put on an encore last year, throwing for 334 yards with a touchdown while also rushing for another three scores.
Sophomore Will Howard, who will likely start in Thompson's place, is another dual-threat quarterback but he doesn’t have the same big-game experience that Howard does. That will make a difference this Saturday.
Oklahoma’s defense has proven itself to be legit at this point. The Sooners have allowed just 29 points over their last three games and they have allowed 100 or fewer rushing yards in all four of their games this season. Only 13 teams have given up fewer yards per game than Oklahoma on the ground, and against a Wildcats team that needs to run effectively to set up the rest of its plays, that will be a huge factor in setting the direction of this game.
Offensively, this will have to be the game that Spencer Rattler finally shows why there was so much Heisman Trophy buzz surrounding him entering the season. Kansas State is ninth in the country in rushing defense, which means it’ll be tough for Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray to get going on the ground so Rattler will likely need to carry the offense.
Rattler has had three games this season in which he has thrown for only one touchdown, but he did throw for 387 yards and four touchdowns against this Wildcats team last year. The problem was that he threw three picks in that game, and he’ll need to clean it up a bit this time.
However, this Kansas State secondary isn’t quite as aggressive as it was a year ago — and the Wildcats were torched through the air by Oklahoma State last week.
Under 52.5 (-110)
This is a matchup between two teams that really make it tough to run the football. Oklahoma’s opening-week defensive performance against the Tulane Green Wave damaged the reputation of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch’s group, but these Sooners have been excellent since then.
Against a Wildcats team that doesn’t boast that much offensive talent — and is without their starting QB — Oklahoma should be able to keep Kansas State in check here. As for the Sooners’ offense, the unit is bound to snap out of its funk very soon, but it’s not likely that Lincoln Riley’s team will put up enough to turn Over bettors here.
Oklahoma’s last two games have gone Under the total, and this team is showing that it is capable of winning slugfests. Also, the Under is 3-0 when Kansas State has played as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points under head coach Chris Klieman.
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