Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Cowboys Do Enough

Two traditional in-state rivals will meet for the last time – at least for a while – on Saturday when the Oklahoma State Cowboys host the Oklahoma Sooners in the classic Bedlam matchup.

This game also has huge implications for the Big 12 title race. Oklahoma (7-1) and Oklahoma State (6-2) are both part of a five-way tie at 4-1 in the conference standings, with college football odds making the Sooners a close second behind the Texas Longhorns to win the league title. 

However, the Sooners are coming off a stunning loss to the Kansas Jayhawks, while the Sooners have won four straight games. We’ll break down who has the edge for the 2023 Bedlam showdown in our free college football picks and predictions for Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State on November 4.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State best odds

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions

The Oklahoma Sooners were in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot until last weekend when Kansas upended them 38-33. The loss comes after Oklahoma survived two close calls, first scoring a big win against Texas on the road, then holding off the Central Florida Knights 31-29 as 17-point favorites.

Oklahoma isn’t eliminated quite yet, but the combination of a surprising loss and their inability to consistently dominate lesser teams could make it difficult to get into the playoffs with one loss. And the Sooners still have plenty of potential to pick up a second loss before the postseason arrives.

That starts on Saturday, with an always-important matchup against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater. Oklahoma leads the all-time series 91-19-7, but Oklahoma State won the last matchup at home in 2021. This year, the Sooners come in as a slim six-point favorite at most books.

Oklahoma State has reason to enter Saturday’s showdown with confidence. Not only have the Cowboys won four straight, but they’ve covered in each of those encounters. That includes three outright wins as underdogs, including victories over Kansas and the Kansas State Wildcats – the only loss the Wildcats have suffered in Big 12 play this year.

The Cowboys have found most of their success on the ground. Ollie Gordon II has already run for an FBS-high 1,087 yards for Oklahoma State, scoring 10 touchdowns while averaging 7.7 yards per carry. That should give the Oklahoma State offense the ability to maintain drives against the Sooners, who have been fine – but not great – against the run this year, rankings only 45th in yards allowed per rushing attempt.

Controlling the pace of play will be critical for Oklahoma State, as Oklahoma is averaging an impressive 41.9 points per game on offense this year. Dillon Gabriel has quarterbacked a balanced Sooners offense, throwing for 19 touchdowns and running for eight more. 

If both these teams were playing up to their talent potential, I’d give the edge to Oklahoma. But right now, the Sooners are struggling to tackle, and the vaunted Sooners offense has shown just a bit of vulnerability over the past three weeks. That should be enough for the Cowboys to stay in this game, and perhaps even pull off an upset at home. 

I’m not sure Oklahoma State will win this game outright, as I’m not ready to throw Oklahoma under the bus after one loss. But this could come down to the final minutes, and win or lose, I think the Cowboys are getting too many points to pass up betting on them.

My best bet: Oklahoma State +6 (-105 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State same-game parlay

Oklahoma State +6

Over 60.5

Ollie Gordon anytime TD

+268 at DraftKings

For Oklahoma State to stay in this game, they’ll have to keep up with an Oklahoma team that knows how to score points. I’m expecting that to happen, and that forms the basis of my same-game parlay.

We’ll start by taking the Cowboys on the spread, getting nearly a touchdown. I’ll add in a bet on the Over at 60.5 points. This will be a game played in the 30s, as both offenses should find success. Even if someone pulls away early, I expect the losing team to put up at least 24-28 points, making the Over a good play.

Finally, we’ll add a little value by picking Gordon to score a touchdown during the game. If we hit the other two legs of this SGP, it’s almost unthinkable that Gordon hasn’t scored at least once to keep Oklahoma State in a shootout, so this feels like a safe way to squeeze a little bit more out of our bet.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State spread and Over/Under analysis

Oklahoma opened Saturday’s game as a six-point favorite. That number is still the consensus spread, though some books have moved the number down slightly to Oklahoma -5.5. I was able to find -105 on the Cowboys getting the full six points, or -108 on the Sooners at the same line.

Both schools have been strong against the spread this year. Oklahoma has put up a 6-2 ATS mark on the year, while Oklahoma State is 5-3 ATS so far this season.

The Cowboys are the smart play here. We’ve already seen Oklahoma struggle to put away opponents over the last few weeks, let alone a quality team on the road. Oklahoma State is capable of winning this game at Boone Pickens Stadium, and knowing that, it’s impossible to turn down six points for the home team. Bet the Cowboys with the points. 

The total on this game opened at 62 points. That number has come down a bit, with numbers between 60 and 61.5 points being found as the main line at different sites. The closest thing to a consensus Over/Under as of Thursday afternoon is 60.5 points, which is being offered at several books with -110 on both sides.

Oklahoma’s outstanding offense has been good for the Over, which has gone 5-3 in Sooners games this year. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is an even 4-4 on the total this year.

Oklahoma has played to totals of at least 60 points in each of its last four games. Oklahoma State has also done so in two of its last three games, with the exception being its 45-13 win over the Cincinnati Bearcats last weekend. Both of these offenses will put up points on Saturday, as neither has failed to score at least 29 points in any of their last four games. I’m leaning strongly towards the Over.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State betting trend to know

Oklahoma State has gone 4-0 against the spread in its last four games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State.

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