The Red River Showdown is what college football is all about. Two powerhouse programs with long-running bad blood, clashing each season in a game that pretty much pulls the plug on the loser’s playoff hopes.
The 2019 edition of this classic Big 12 battle is all that, and then some. The Oklahoma Sooners are the class of the conference, taking a 5-0 record into the Cotton Bowl and among the favorites to finish among the Final Four in the College Football Playoffs. This offense is headlined by Heisman hopeful Jalen Hurts, who seems right at home in Norman after leaving Alabama.
The Texas Longhorns, who at 4-1 SU (lone loss to LSU), have to do some serious work to earn a spot in the CFP and can boost their bowl game resume and burn a hated rival with the win in Dallas Saturday afternoon. And for those college football bettors not living under a rock, you already know Longhorns head coach Tom Herman is pointspread magic when tagged as an underdog, going 13-3-2 ATS when getting the points going back to his time at Houston.
So, what are we waiting for? It’s Red River Showdown time!
OKLAHOMA SOONERS VS TEXAS LONGHORNS (+10.5, 75.5)
QUICK HITTER
Like any big game, players are going to be amped up for the opening whistle. Oklahoma really hasn’t needed much motivation to strike early and often, averaging 12 points per first quarter on the season, including an average of almost two touchdowns in the first 15 minutes over its last three contests.
Texas has been slower out of the blocks, managing only 5.6 average first-quarter points in 2019, but has upped that early production to a touchdown over its previous three outings. The Longhorns opened last season’s Big 12 title game battle with the Sooners with a touchdown before succumbing to the OU offense in a 39-27 loss.
Both Big 12 schools rank high in terms of first-quarter defense but have surrendered first quarter touchdowns in recent games, with the Sooners falling behind 7-0 to Kansas last weekend and the Horns doing the same versus West Virginia in Week 6.
These rivals put up 17 combined points in the opening frame of last season’s Red River game, and we expect more early fireworks this Saturday.
PREDICTION: First quarter Over 17.5
FIRST HALF
While the Longhorns have been a little sleepy in the first quarter, they’re wide awake when the whistle blows on the second.
Texas is averaging 15.2 points in the second quarter on the season – eighth in the country and just behind Oklahoma at 15.5 – including 17.3 second-quarter points over its last three games. That’s 36 percent of the team’s total scoring confined to that select 15-minute frame.
Sam Ellinger is having to carry this injury-plagued roster most weeks and has been fantastic in the first half of football games in 2019. The Longhorns have a first-half passer rating of 179.62 in the opening two quarters with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions, connecting on 69.9 percent of passes.
We like that to lift Texas Over its first-half team total of 16 points.
PREDICTION: Over Texas first-half team total 16.0
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Given the state of the Sooners’ offensive line, the playbook is going to continue to lean heavily on Hurts to make plays with his arm and his legs. So far this season, the graduate transfer has 499 yards rushing and seven touchdowns on the ground, including 56 yards and two rushing TDs in the win over the Jayhawks in Week 6.
The Longhorns secondary is very thin due to injuries and will be bringing the heat with extra pass rushers in an effort to move Hurts around the pocket and slow this OU passing game. That could also lead to some wild scrambles from the fleet-footed QB. Texas has given up rushing scores to opposing quarterbacks in the past two games, including 109 yards rushing given up to Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders, and will likely see the back of No. 1’s jersey more than it would like Saturday.
PREDICTION: Jalen Hurts Over 62.5 yards rushing
TOTAL BET
Last year’s Big 12 title game was pegged with a total of 80 points – the highest Over/Under between Oklahoma and Texas. The Sooners took a 39-27 win and stayed below that huge number. The Over/Under for Saturday’s game is 75.5 points – another record high when it specifically comes to the regular season Red River Showdown matchup.
As we hinted to above, we see a fun first quarter and a strong first-half showing from the Longhorns, but that doesn’t mean the points will keep coming down the stretch. Texas’ running game, which has been slowed by injuries, had a great day versus West Virginia, totalling 224 yards on the ground, including 121 of those gains coming from freshman RB Roschon Johnson.
One of the best defenses against this high-powered Sooners attack is not letting it on the field, starting with a methodical run offense. Texas’ passing numbers tend to dip in the final two frames, and they could look to handoff, control the clock and limit the exposure for this patchwork secondary.
For Oklahoma, Hurts could feel the pressure on most snaps, leading to more handoffs, QB scrambles, and quicker, shorter passes to escape the rush. Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando has done well versus Lincoln Riley in the past – going back to his Houston days – and will likely try to avoid the big plays, keeping everything in front of his defense this weekend.
PREDICTION: Under 75.5
SPREAD BET
The Longhorns have covered in six straight Red River Showdowns, going back to 2013 – all coming as underdogs and versus an average spread of more than +12 per game. Texas, did however, fall 39-27 to OU in the conference championship and failed to cover as a 9.5-point pup.
The Longhorns defense will only be able to hold back the Sooners for so long, especially with their problems in the pass defense. Texas may find itself struggling to keep pace should Oklahoma break away.
While the Sooners haven’t been as explosive in fourth quarters (averaging only 7.8 points) – mainly due to rolling over teams – they won’t be taking their foot off the gas against this long-time rival, especially with this matchup being their best chance to impress the CFP selection committee.
We all know Herman’s history as a wonder dog, but let’s not forget he failed to cover versus LSU when getting the points at home in Week 2. Oklahoma backers may have to sweat this out in the fourth, but the Sooners will push past this 10.5-point spread.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma -10.5
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