Oregon State vs San Jose State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Beavers, Spartans Play it Slow on Sunday

It’s not something that is usually said about this program, but Jonathan Smith and the Oregon State Beavers enter this year with high expectations and are brimming with confidence that they can rise to the challenge. 

The Beavers won 10 games a year ago and dominated Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl. Is there a next step in 2023, and what does that look like? Is a surprise Pac-12 Championship in the mix? 

First, they’ll need to get by a road game against the San Jose State Spartans (0-1) tonight. Looking at the college football odds, the Spartans enter as a heavy underdog to a Pac-12 team for the second straight week, although they’ve been given more of a chance than they were a week ago against USC.

Read on for my best bet and full college football picks and predictions for Oregon State vs. San Jose State on Sunday, September 3.

Oregon State vs San Jose State best odds

Oregon State vs San Jose State picks and predictions

I have my eyes on the total for Sunday’s best bet between the Oregon State Beavers and the San Jose State Spartans. 

The main talking point surrounding Oregon State this offseason is the addition of former Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who lost his starting gig for the Tigers but is now Jonathan Smith’s QB1 as one of the highest-profile players in Corvallis in recent memory. 

Personally, I don’t think he moves the needle much. While he undoubtedly upgrades the talent of a quarterback room that desperately needed it, he’s been mostly bad over his last two years (6.0 yards per attempt in 2021 and 6.8 in 2022), and I don’t expect this team’s offensive identity to change much with him under center. That means we can expect a ground-heavy attack again in 2023. 

Running back Damien Martinez exploded for 982 rushing yards to earn the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year award. He returns behind an experienced offensive line that brings back four starters and is a threat to win the Joe Moore Award as one of the best in the country. They ranked 10th in Line Yards and 16th in Front Seven HAVOC and could improve those numbers.

The Beavers had the 13th-highest Rush Rate a year ago and were effective at moving the chains, checking in at 10th in Rushing Success Rate. With the new clock rules where time does not momentarily stop after first downs, I expect their games to be heavily impacted as they like to play ball control and will be happy to limit the number of possessions that their opponents have — it perfectly fits their style of play. They should be able to pull off this game plan against a Spartans defensive front that loses two Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Award winners up front as well as its leading tackler at linebacker. Tick, tock. Tick, tock.

San Jose State was without its Top 2 returning pass catchers last week, as Justin Lockhart is dealing with an arm injury and tight end Dominick Mazotti was a surprising absence. While the offense was still looking fine against USC, the Trojans were a Bottom-10 defense a year ago while Oregon State’s was Top 25. 

The Beavers return six of their Top 7 players along the defensive front and will be solid against the rush, and while they are green in the secondary, I’m unsure if the Spartans will be able to exploit this considering the state of the receiving room. 

Last year, San Jose State played in three low-scoring non-conference games, failing to crack 40 combined points in any of the first three weeks of the season. The offense is fine for Group of 5 standards but is nothing special when you zoom out — the Spartans ranked 75th in EPA per Play and 98th in Explosiveness, while the offensive line struggled with 42 sacks allowed and ranked 113th in Stuff Rate. 

I have this game circled as one that will be impacted by the new clock rules, and believe this total is inflated after the Spartans played a much different style of game against USC in Week 0.

My best bet: Under 55.5 (-114 at Unibet)

Oregon State vs San Jose State same-game parlay

Under 55.5

San Jose State +16.5

+224 at FanDuel

The first leg of this SGP will be my best bet on the Under, as outlined above. I’ll add San Jose State against the spread at +16.5 to bring the odds to +224 at FanDuel. 

The Spartans seem to be disrespected by oddsmakers as they’re a quality team in the Mountain West and are well-coached under Brent Brennan. They have an experienced quarterback in former Hawaii player Chevan Cordeiro, who is among the best signal callers at the Group of 5 level and looks more comfortable with each passing game. 

This play is correlated with the Under in that a low-scoring game with a lot of clock control would not be conducive to one side boat racing the other. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon State vs San Jose State spread and Over/Under analysis

Oregon State opened at -17.5, but the line has since crossed a key number at sits at -16.5 across most locations at current. There is also a -17 available, so be sure to shop around using our college football odds tool before placing your wager to ensure you find the best price available before spending your hard-earned money. 

The Spartans have shown an ability to cover spreads against Power 5 teams. Last year, they played the Auburn Tigers very close in a 24-16 loss. While Week 0’s 56-28 loss to USC may not have been particularly close, there was evident line value on the Spartans’ side as they trailed by just a touchdown at the half and ended up covering the +31 spread. 

Although San Jose State’s offense line was poor a year ago, there’s reason to expect improvement with eight returners who started a game last year. The defense returns only five starters and is very green, but Derrick Odum deserves the benefit of the doubt as the longest-tenured defensive coordinator in program history. 

Oregon State played two Mountain West teams in the non-conference slate a year ago. They dispatched Boise State 34-17, and then were fortunate to come away with a 35-32 victory at Fresno State despite losing the yardage battle 492 to 397. 

Defensively, Oregon State loses both inside linebackers Omar Speights and Kyrei Fisher-Morris, who combined for almost 200 tackles a year ago. The secondary also loses both starting corners, who are in NFL camps, and a safety. 

This team will still be good on both sides of the ball, but last year’s ranking of 25th in Defensive EPA per Play does not seem repeatable. 

Oregon State vs San Jose State betting trend to know

San Jose State has gone 2-5 O/U across its last seven games. Under bettors would have a 36% ROI if they played each of those games. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon State vs San Jose State.

Oregon State vs San Jose State game info

Oregon State vs San Jose State latest injuries

Oregon State vs San Jose State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic