Oregon State vs Utah Odds, Picks and Predictions: Utes Get Revenge in Salt Lake City

There’s a big game in Pac-12 play this weekend between Oregon State and Utah. This one could have an impact on the conference’s standings at the end of the year, as both teams appear to be among the upper crust of the Pac-12 sitting with identical 3-1 records.

It’ll be an early kick with the game starting at noon local time.

A year ago, the Beavers handed the Utes their only conference loss after switching to Cameron Rising at quarterback. Will Utah notch an important win and get revenge at the same time?

Check out our college football picks and predictions for the Oregon State Beavers and Utah Utes on Saturday, October 1 to find out. 

Oregon State vs Utah best odds

Oregon State vs Utah picks and predictions

These are two of the top programs in the Pac-12 and it should be a fantastic matchup. Both have been profitable against the spread to begin the season, as the Oregon State Beavers are 4-0 ATS while the Utah Utes are 3-1 ATS. Something has to give in Week 5, right?

This is a tight matchup against the spread, as there seems to be line value on the Beavers but it’s a letdown spot and a tough assignment. Instead of taking a side as my best bet, I’ll instead target the Utes’ team total. 

The Beavers found success last week defensively against a great USC offense, so it might seem counterintuitive to target their opponent’s team total Over the following week.

Let me explain.

The Beavers had a great defensive game plan, dropping a lot of men into coverage while still getting pressure on the quarterback by taking advantage of a faulty Trojans offensive line. That approach simply won’t apply against a much different Utah team. Styles make fights, and I like for Utah to land punch after punch in this spot. 

Utah has a powerhouse rushing attack led by dual-threat Cameron Rising at quarterback and touchdown-king Tavion Thomas at running back. Thomas was in head coach Kyle Whittingham’s doghouse last week and didn’t see the field until the second quarter. He’s had his struggles taking care of the football, but the Utes also just didn’t need him against a terrible Arizona State team, and I believe Whittingham used that as a teaching moment.

Utah ranks 25th in rushing plays success rate and should move the ball consistently against a Beavers defense that ranks 107th in rushing plays success rate and 116th in rushing plays PPA. I’m not sure why USC didn’t take advantage last week, as Travis Dye had 133 yards on 19 carries, averaging 7.0 yards per carry in limited attempts while finding repeated success in the second half. This Utah staff won’t make the same mistake and I expect it to find a lot of success against a Beavers front seven that ranks 87th in line yards and 83rd in havoc.

Utah is averaging 42 points per game this season and returns most of the key pieces to a unit that averaged 36.1 points per game a season ago. The Utes aren’t getting enough respect with this number.

My best bet: Utah team total Over 32.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Oregon State vs Utah spread analysis

A year ago, the Beavers grabbed a 42-34 win at home over the Utes. It was especially impressive considering that was in the middle of a stretch in which Utah won nine of 10 games. 

The Utes will be motivated to get revenge in this spot in front of their home fans. They’ve been a good bet at Rice-Eccles, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The Pac-12 runs through Salt Lake City until further notice, as the Utes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 conference games. 

On the other side, it’s pretty undeniable at this point that Oregon State has been an undervalued team in the betting market. They’re a perfect 4-0 ATS and have a 3-1 record, with the lone loss coming by three points to USC in a game that they led the majority of the way despite finishing -4 in turnover margin. 

Jonathan Smith has completely revamped this team, turning Corvallis into a winning program when it was pretty far down in the dumps when he first took over. It was a long rebuild that took plenty of time, but it’s now bearing fruit. The Beavers will remain a tough out in the Pac-12 and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record. 

Oregon State vs Utah Over/Under analysis

Both teams will look to keep the ball on the ground in this matchup as much as possible. The Beavers just lost a huge game against USC in part because quarterback Chance Nolan tossed four interceptions, and they’re facing off with a Utah defense that has been soft against the run. The Utes rank 81st in rushing plays PPA and 115th in rushing plays explosiveness, and I know Smith and this staff watched plenty of film on what Florida did to this defense in the opener. 

Utah offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig uses tight ends in his offense more than just about any coach in America. Truly, the position is utilized to its full advantage in his scheme. The bad news here is that star tight end Brant Kuithe will be out for the season, which is a significant blow given his statistical production (148 receptions, 1,882 yards, and 20 total touchdowns in his career) and importance to the scheme.

Dalton Kincaid is a future NFL player who already has four touchdowns this season, but the loss of Kuithe takes away a lot of what Utah looks to do offensively with two star tight ends on the field. 

I expect Utah to lean on its ground game even more than usual in a revenge spot at home. It’ll take a while for this team to alter its scheme sans Kuithe, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they seek to simply pound a forgiving Beavers rush defense into oblivion, which will keep the clock churning.

Oregon State vs Utah betting trend to know

The Over is 21-7 in the Beavers’ last 28 road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon State vs. Utah.

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