Oregon State vs Washington Odds, Picks and Predictions: Beavers Undervalued Against Huskies

There are Friday night lights in the Pac-12 as the Oregon State Beavers (6-2) head to Seattle to face the Washington Huskies (6-2).

The Beavers have rattled off three straight victories and return from the bye week ready to make some noise in conference play. The Huskies, meanwhile, have won two straight conference games and also enter this game refreshed after a bye week.

Which team will keep their winning streak alive? Check out our college football picks and predictions for Oregon State Beavers and Washington Huskies tonight.

Oregon State vs Washington best odds

Oregon State vs Washington picks and predictions

This series has been dominated by Washington. The Huskies have won nine of the last 10 meetings with Beavers, a run that first-year head coach Kaleb DeBoer will look to improve upon at home on Friday night. The one loss during that stretch? That happened to come a year ago when Jonathan Smith’s Beavers nabbed a 27-24 victory at home.

The Beavers completed just seven of 15 pass attempts for 48 yards in last year’s win, showcasing how their style of play doesn’t need to look pretty to get results. Piling up 242 rushing yards and three scores on the ground, Smith’s squad proved to be the more physical team en route to a victory. They’ll look to utilize a similar game plan in this year’s game, considering the current forecast calls for an 81% chance of rain.

The Beavers have yet to receive any love in the betting market despite being a very profitable team in the Pac-12, going 6-2 against the spread this season. They have typically been a good team to back during this time of year as conference play heats up, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in November. Oregon State has won three straight games, earning a No. 24 ranking in the AP Poll heading into Week 10.

It’s a testament to the underappreciated turnaround Smith has spearheaded for this program considering this is the first time they have been ranked since 2013. As for Washington, the calling card has been a superb passing attack averaging 379.3 passing yards per game — the highest mark in the nation.

Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr. has been tremendous under his former coordinator with the Hoosiers, DeBoer. Penix leads the country with 2,934 passing yards while throwing for 22 touchdowns to only four interceptions. It’s quite possible that the Huskies’ passing attack is hampered somewhat by ugly weather.

Current forecasts call for 17 mph wins at kickoff, which benefits the Beavers’ style of play much more than it does the Huskies. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS against the Pac-12 this season and may be undervalued yet again in Week 10.

My best bet: Oregon State +4 (-107 at PointsBet)

Oregon State vs Washington spread analysis

At the time of this writing, Washington sits between a 3.5-point and 4-point favorite, depending on the book. Personally, I believe the biggest concern is how the Beavers will play on the road. The Beavers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games, oftentimes appearing like a different team in away games than they do at Reser Stadium.

The Beavers are 2-1 straight up in away games this season after posting an ugly 1-5 record a year ago, so perhaps they have shored up some of those issues. They’ll need to be on point against a Huskies team that is a perfect 5-0 straight up at Husky Stadium this year.

It’s worth pointing out, however, that none of the teams they have played are as good as Oregon State in what has been a very soft home schedule to start the year. The line of thinking in my support of Oregon State is that the weather will help them more than playing on the road will hurt them.

The Beavers are the better team by advanced metrics despite playing a tougher schedule than their opponent. They rank 40th in success rate offensively and 46th in success rate defensively, playing decently well on both sides of the ball.

While the Huskies have been terrific on offense (8th in Success Rate), the defense has been an utter disaster — ranking 102nd in expected points added (EPA) per play, 86th in success rate, and 111th in explosiveness.

Oregon State vs Washington Over/Under analysis

The total is set between 57 and 57.5, depending on the book, at the time of this writing. Considering it opened above 60, it seems as though bettors have taken note of the weather forecast in Seattle for Friday night.

Oregon State quarterback Chance Nolan was back at practice on Monday, but Smith has yet to name a starter for Friday night. Ben Gulbranson has started the last three games to mixed results, and it’s possible he earns his fourth straight start considering the team has yet to lose under his watch.

The two have combined for just eight touchdowns to 11 interceptions in a subpar showing at the position. Expect the Beavers to rely heavily on the ground game led by true freshman running back Damien Martinez, who exploded for 178 yards and three touchdowns in his last game and is now averaging 6.5 yards per carry.

The Huskies are 72nd in rushing success rate on defense. Still, their major deficiencies in the secondary (117th in passing EPA) may not be punished in this spot, considering the opponent and the weather. Washington’s elite offense has led to a 7-1 mark to the Over this season.

The Huskies had scored at least 32 points in every game this season until mustering 28 against California in Week 8. The Beavers’ main weakness defensively is in a front seven that ranks 115th in EPA and 95th in success rate against the rush.

With reason to believe both teams will take a ground-heavy approach, it’s no wonder the total has dropped a few points to a key number at 57.

Oregon State vs Washington betting trend to know

Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon State vs. Washington.

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