Arizona has already improved under new head coach Jedd Fisch, and it will seek its first big win of 2022 as the Wildcats host the 12th-ranked Oregon Ducks in Pac-12 action on Saturday night.
Arizona has already equaled their conference win total from a season ago and currently has a quarterback playing at the top of his game.
Oregon has shaken off their humiliating defeat to Georgia with four straight wins, as Bo Nix has settled in at his new school with a stretch of solid performances. Can he lead Oregon to its first win in Tucson in more than a decade?
Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Oregon vs. Arizona on Saturday, October 8.
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Oregon vs Arizona best odds
Oregon vs Arizona picks and predictions
After winning just one game last season, the Wildcats are on the rise. Their 43-20 win over Colorado last weekend saw quarterback Jayden de Laura tie a school record with six touchdown passes. The starter also threw for 484 yards on the day, the second straight game in which he has topped the 400-yard mark.
No team has allowed more passing yards this season than Oregon. The Ducks are allowing more than 282 yards per game through the air, and their opponents are completing 61.4% of their throws — the second-highest percentage in the country.
The Ducks have done well this season against running backs on the ground, but they’re being brutalized through the air by players running routes out of the backfield. Every starting RB that Oregon has faced this year has found paydirt one way or another.
Arizona RB Michael Wiley will be the next back to punish the Oregon defense. After starting the season with single-digit carries in his first three games, he’s rushed 30 times for 156 yards over the past two weeks in the absence of Rayshon Luke.
Wiley also caught two of Laura’s six touchdown passes last week, marking the fourth straight game that he has found the end zone.
Oregon will be busy with Laura’s two outstanding receivers, with Jacob Cowing and Dorian Singer having already caught 72 passes for 1016 yards this season. Wiley is averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry. He should get multiple touches near the goal line, either on the ground or through the air, against a defense that continues to lose track of opposing backs.
Not only has Wiley scored in each of Arizona’s last four games, but he’s also been the first player to find the end zone for either team in three of them.
Because of this, not only am I taking Wiley to score anytime, but I'm also laying action on the tailback to score first.
My best bet: Wiley to score anytime (-115 at FanDuel) / Wiley to score the first touchdown (+1,100 at FanDuel)
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Oregon vs Arizona spread analysis
Oregon has won seven of the last 10 games between the two schools, but the Ducks have not performed well in Tucson over the past decade. Their two visits there since 2012 saw the Ducks lose 42-16 and 44-15, although the latter of those came in 2018.
After opening as 11-point favorites, the Ducks have seen the spread go up to -13 as bettors have come in strong on their side. That’s important to note, as the Ducks have failed to cover in their last five games on the road.
A key factor in that movement is the struggles of the Arizona defense, especially against the run. Nix and company will look forward to facing a defensive unit averaging 5.8 yards per carry, one of the highest numbers in the country. Oregon’s 6.1 yards per carry is the fourth-best mark in college football and should allow the Ducks to move the ball consistently.
The Wildcats will need to improve on their red zone performance if they hope to cover or spring an upset. They rank in the bottom 25% of the country in red zone scoring percentage, in large part due to averaging two turnovers per contest.
They also will hope Oregon continues to shoot themselves in the foot, as the Ducks are one of the highest-penalized teams in the nation.
Oregon vs Arizona Over/Under analysis
There are lots of reasons to consider the Over in this contest, whether you buy into trends, stats, or playstyle matchups. The total has not gone Under in any of Arizona’s last five Pac-12 games, and the Over is 6-1-1 in its last eight overall.
As for the Ducks, the Over is 4-0 in their last four games, and their last four games against an opponent with a winning record have also gone Over. I fully expect Oregon to put up points in this one. Arizona allowed 354 rushing yards two weeks ago to Cal, and the Ducks will likely seek to replicate that success.
The total will depend on how well Arizona is able to convert on its drives and how Oregon handles time of possession. Since opening at 69 points, the line has gone up to 70.5 due to the expected offensive output. Oregon has seen the score reach that point in each of its last two games.
However, that total has been breached in just one of Arizona’s five games this season (the aforementioned loss to Cal). If Oregon is able to replicate its success on the ground, that game could be the template for how this O/U will play out.
Oregon vs Arizona betting trend to know
The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five games between Oregon and Arizona. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. Arizona.
Oregon vs Arizona game info
| Location: | Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona |
| Date: | Saturday, October 8, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | PAC12 Network |
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