The Oregon Ducks and Georgia Bulldogs clash at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday in one of the biggest Week 1 matchups of the college football season.
The defending national champion Bulldogs begin the season ranked as the No. 3 team in the country while the Ducks are at No. 11. However, oddsmakers see a big gulf between these programs, with UGA installed as a 17-point favorite.
With the Ducks led by former Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning, will they be able to find holes against what was a dominant defense? Here are my best Oregon vs. Georgia college football picks and predictions for September 3.
Oregon vs Georgia odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with Georgia installed as a 17.5-point favorite and that number ticked up -18 before shiftingdown to 16.5 by Wednesday afternoon. The Over/Under opened at 51 and early money on the Over has seen the total rise to 53 or 53.5 depending on the book.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Oregon vs Georgia predictions
Predictions made on 8/31/2022 at 4 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Oregon vs Georgia game info
• Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Oregon vs Georgia betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our college football weather info.
Key injuries
Oregon: None.
Georgia: Kendall Milton RB (Questionable), Tramel Walthour DL (Questionable), Kearis Jackson WR (Questionable), Arian Smith WR (Out).
Find our latest College football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games while the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their previous five against non-conference foes. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. Georgia.
Oregon vs Georgia picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The biggest narrative for this marquee matchup is that the Ducks will be led by first-year head coach Dan Lanning, who was Georgia's defensive coordinator for the last three seasons. Lanning should be able to help prepare his team for Georgia's defensive scheme but nothing can help prepare for their speed and raw talent.
To be fair, the Bulldogs lost a ton of talent from last year's dominant stop unit with eight players departing for the NFL — including five defenders drafted in the first round. While they might not be quite as dominant this season, they have the depth to still be very good.
Positions like inside linebacker are always relatively easy to replace, and while losing three linemen in the first round of the draft hurts, Jalen Carter should be an All-Conference caliber player at one spot.
The most important positions on defense tend to be edge rusher and coverage defensive backs, and the Bulldogs are loaded at those spots with Nolan Smith and Robert Beal Jr. bringing the heat on the outside, while corner Kelee Ringo and safety Christopher Smith lock down opposing receivers.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia might be even better than last year with Stetson Bennett back at quarterback and three of the top four receiving leaders returning as well. That includes Brock Bowers, who might have been the best tight end in the country as a freshman and will be joined by two former five-star recruits at tight end in Arik Gilbert and Darnell Washington. Having three studs on the preseason Mackey Award watch list screams matchup nightmare for every other school in the country.
The Bulldogs lost two key running backs from last year and Kendall Milton is questionable for Saturday, but they typically use a committee approach and senior Kenny McIntosh has plenty of experience behind a talented offensive line.
Expect them to bully an Oregon defense that doesn't have the athleticism or physicality to keep pace. I'm leaning towards the Bulldogs on the spread.
Prediction: Georgia -16.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
While the change at head coach in Eugene will get the most attention, the Ducks also have their third offensive coordinator in the last four years with Kenny Dillingham at the helm.
Dillingham will be reunited with Auburn transfer Bo Nix, who will likely have the edge on five-star redshirt freshman Ty Thompson at QB. Whoever lines up under center will be protected by a very experienced offensive line, anchored by T.J. Bass.
The Ducks will need to develop weapons at wide receiver and running back. However, they've added some quality players in the transfer portal and they had talent at those positions last year — but didn't know how to deploy them in a vanilla offense under Joe Moorhead, and with a mediocre passer under center.
Expect a more dynamic Oregon offense this season and while they might not go off in the season opener they should be able to do enough to push this game Over the total.
Prediction: Over 53 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
I don't expect Lanning to work miracles with the Ducks stop-unit in the opener. While they have talent (especially at linebacker with Noah Sewell) they need to generate more of a pass rush and hope that transfers can shore up a secondary that lost its best players.
Keep in mind that they were shredded by Oregon State and Utah (twice) towards the end of last year and this UGA attack is even more explosive.
The Bulldogs dominated with their defense last season but will likely take a step back in that area this year — especially at the beginning of the season as they integrate new starters. They should be even better on offense though with the continuity they have on that side of the ball.
I'm expecting both offenses to play better than expected. Meanwhile, the defenses will fail to live up to preseason hype with the Bulldogs' stop-unit due for regression and the Ducks defense needing time to adapt to Lanning's system.
Pick: Over 53 (-110 at bet365)
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