The No. 2 Oregon Ducks look to stay undefeated as they follow up last week’s thrilling victory over Ohio State with a Friday night road game in West Lafayette against the struggling Purdue Boilermakers.
Purdue might be the worst Power Conference team in the country whereas Oregon has a strong claim to make as the best, resulting in a lopsided 27.5-point spread.
Oregon vs Purdue predictions
Early spread lean
Oregon -27.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Dan Lanning has the Oregon Ducks amid the Big Ten and National Championship races after a 6-0 start. Not only do they have an undefeated record, but the Ducks also have arguably the best win of any team in the country after a 32-31 over No.2 Ohio State in Week 7.
Oregon’s offense was, to my eyes, the most impressive individual unit in the country in Week 7. Ohio State was roundly viewed as possessing the best defense in the country headed into that matchup, but Dillon Gabriel & Co. made light work of the Buckeyes, racking up 496 total yards on 7.6 yards per play.
The Ducks haven’t been quite as proficient on the defensive end, ranking 58th in EPA per play and 26th in success rate. Still, those numbers are partly the result of having played two of the most prolific offenses in the country (Boise State and Ohio State) — the Ducks have surrendered fewer than 310 total yards in each of its four other games.
This is a brutal scheduling spot for Lanning’s squad, which is rewarded for its Week 7 triumph with a cross-country road trip on a short week. That’s why the line moved from -28.5 at open to -27.5 at current.
I’ll buy the dip, as no scheduling spot can make me overlook how bad this Purdue team is and how great Oregon was last week.
The Purdue Boilermakers are 0-5 against FBS teams with an average losing margin of 28.2 points. An Oregon cover would simply require the Ducks to beat Purdue by the same amount as the Boilermakers’ average opponent. Lanning’s squad is much better than the average opponent, so I’m buying.
Oregon will almost certainly light up the scoreboard, so a cover would require the Ducks to hold down Purdue’s offense, at least somewhat. The Boilermakers looked lost on that side of the ball until last week’s explosion (49 points, 556 total yards) against Illinois, and I’ll need to see more than one positive performance before becoming a believer.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 58.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s not unrealistic to expect Oregon to come close to going Over the total by themselves. Ryan Walters’ team has been abysmal on that side of the ball, allowing 46.8 ppg against FBS opponents, and there’s little reason to expect a quick turnaround.
The Boilermakers are especially woeful on the ground, ranking 131st in EPA per rush and rushing explosiveness and 125th in PFF’s tackling metric. Expect a big day from Jordan James (667 rushing yards, six touchdowns), which should take the pressure off an offense playing on the road.
The Ducks will hold a massive advantage in the trenches as they rank 19th in line yards and 23rd in stuff rate. The Boilermakers check in at 125th in line yards and 118th in stuff rate, and the secondary isn’t nearly effective enough (127th in PFF’s coverage metric) to make up for this disparity.
Purdue’s offense surprisingly showed signs of life against Illinois, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Ryan Browne, who threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns on 11.4 yards per attempt while adding 118 more yards on the ground. He brings an element of surprise that may be difficult to prepare for as Oregon’s staff has likely spent very little time thinking about this test coming off the Ohio State victory.
Purdue fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell two weeks ago, and we’ve seen a revival on that side of the ball. Whether that’s due to a momentary jolt of fresh air or an improvement in coaching, the results against Illinois are hard to argue.
The Boilermakers have tended to get into higher-scoring games at home, going 5-2 O/U in their last seven games at Ross-Ade Stadium. It’d be natural if Oregon didn’t quite bring its A-game defensively after a tough, physical matchup against Ohio State and now having a quick turnaround.
I lean toward the Over, as Oregon should get whatever it wants offensively, and Purdue’s offensive might be undervalued given the changes at quarterback and offensive coordinator.
Oregon vs Purdue live odds
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