FOX Friday Night Football Player Props & Best Bets: Oregon vs Purdue

Prop bet #1: Jordan James Over 109.5 rushing yards

Best odds: -115 at BetMGM

One of the best running backs in the country, Jordan James has run for Over 109.5 yards in back-to-back games. That includes going for 115 against an Ohio State defense that ranks No. 2 in EPA per rush.

So running against the Purdue Boilermakers should be a cakewalk for James. The Boilermakers are 131st in EPA per rush on defense and allow the second-most rushing yards per game in the Power 4 (228.8).

Purdue’s defense is about as bad as it gets at stopping the run, and missed tackles have been a huge issue for Ryan Walters’ team. In six games, the Boilermakers have missed 75 tackles.

Those missed tackles came against far lesser backs than James, who’s trending toward being one of the top running backs in the 2025 NFL Draft. James is 13th in the country in rushing yards (635), 16th in yards after contact (409), 17th in missed tackles forced (32), and sixth in 10-plus-yard runs (22).

In a game in which the Oregon Ducks are a four-touchdown favorite, it’s also fair to assume James will be seeing a lot of work if the Ducks build a big lead. He’s built to churn out the clock with physical runs, but he doesn’t lack big-play ability either.

With James averaging 22.3 carries for 128 yards per game in Big Ten play, he should fly past this total.

Prop bet #2: Dillon Gabriel Under 292.5 passing yards

Best odds: -115 at BetMGM

It may seem crazy to be taking the Under on Dillon Gabriel after he had arguably the best game of his six-year career against Ohio State last week. But this number is inflated as a result.

Gabriel has only thrown for 293-plus yards in two of six games this year, and those two games were close ones. First against Idaho when he needed to throw 49 passes to beat the Vandals by 10, and then against the Buckeyes last Saturday.

So while the Boilermakers defense is atrocious, it just doesn’t seem likely that Gabriel will need to be slinging the rock around, especially against a defense that’s poised to get shredded on the ground.

For as bad as the Boilermakers’ defense is as a whole, they actually allow more yards on the ground (228.8) than through the air (227.3). And outside of the Ohio State game, Gabriel hasn’t been making many big-time throws.

He had just seven in the Ducks’ first five games — with an ADOT of 6.5 or fewer yards in three of them — before making three big-time throws with an ADOT of 7.5 against the Buckeyes.

Unless Purdue somehow keeps this close, there’s just no reason for Gabriel to put up monster passing numbers when James and Co. will likely be running wild.

And I don’t think the Boilermakers will keep it close. They’re just 82nd in SP+ while the Ducks are 7th.

Prop bet #3: Devin Mockobee Under 43.5 rushing yards

Best odds: -115 at BetMGM

Quinshon Judkins, one of the best running backs in the country, averaged 7.8 yards per carry in Ohio State’s first five games while rushing for at least 54 yards in all of them.

Then, he played the Ducks. And on 11 carries, Judkins put up just 23 yards and averaged 2.1 per attempt.

This isn’t a front seven that gives up yards easily, especially with Derrick Harmon eating space on the interior defensive line. So Devin Mockobee is going to have a tough time putting up numbers.

In his last five games, he’s rushed for fewer than 44 yards twice, including against a Notre Dame defense that’s comparable to the Ducks’ unit. The Fighting Irish are 20th in EPA per rush on defense while Oregon is 15th.

The Ducks have also missed just 44 tackles this season and Mockobee isn’t the type of back that consistently breaks first contact. He’s only forced 20 missed tackles in six games this season and eight of them came against Nebraska - and he still only ran for 41 on them.

Against defenses that rank top 25 in SP+, Mockobee is averaging 11 carries for 35 yards per game, that’s just 3.2 yards per carry. And Oregon’s defense is 23rd in SP+.

It’s going to take a lot for Mockobee to hit the Over on this line against Oregon, and there’s a good chance Purdue will get away from the run if they go down by a lot early.