Oregon sits at 5-1 this season, with a win over Ohio State already on its resume. And while a playoff spot may be unlikely, it’s still a possibility if the Ducks run the table to close out their Pac-12 slate.
They’ll face one of their toughest tests this week, however, playing in Pasadena as a slim college football betting road dog against a resurgent UCLA squad at 5-2 on the season.
Will Chip Kelly be able to notch a win over his old team with College Gameday in town... or will the Ducks march on and continue their Pac-12 dominance?
Check out our college football picks and predictions for Oregon vs. UCLA, on Saturday, October 23, to find out.
Oregon vs UCLA odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
UCLA opened as -1 favorites and despite hitting as high as -2, has settled back at the opening number. The total, however, has continued to climb from an opening of 57.5 to the current number of 60.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Oregon vs UCLA picks
Picks made on 10/20/2021 at 11:17 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Oregon vs UCLA game info
• Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
• Date: Saturday, October 23, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Oregon vs UCLA betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Oregon: CJ Verdell RB (Out), Sean Dollars RB (Out), Patrick Herbert TE (Out), Cam McCormick TE (Out), Bram Walden OL (Out), Jonathan Flower LB (Out), Dru Mathis LB (Out), Bennett Williams S (Out).
UCLA: Kyle Phillips WR (Questionable), Colson Yankoff WR (Questionable), Patrick Selna OL (Questionable), Thomas Cole OL (Questionable), Mo Osling CB (Probable), Sitiveni Havili-Kaufusi DL (Questionable), Quintin Somerville DL (Questionable), Kain Medrano LB (Probable), Mitchell Agude LB (Questionable), Kobey Fitzgerald LB (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. UCLA.
Oregon vs UCLA predictions
UCLA -1 (-110)
Imagine taking UCLA as a favorite over Oregon a year ago! Despite not having a winning season in his first three years at UCLA, Chip Kelly appears to have turned things around in Year 4: The Bruins sit at 5-2 on the season as the long rebuild is finally bearing fruit.
The Ducks may be 5-1 on the season but they’ve been burning holes in bettors' pockets, sitting at an unsightly 1-5 ATS. They've failed to cover in three straight games and haven’t looked particularly impressive in any contest other than their Week 2 win at Ohio State — they barely defeated Fresno State, allowed a terrible Arizona team to hang tight, lost straight up to Stanford, and narrowly pulled away from Cal a week ago.
Despite the record, the stats don’t appear to paint the Ducks as a dominant team. They’re average offensively (52nd nationally with 426.7 yards per game) and below-average defensively (87th with 407.8 yards per game allowed). They've benefited from the fourth-best turnover margin in the country at +9, but that’s a notoriously difficult stat to reproduce on a game-by-game basis.
UCLA has found success behind a fearsome rushing attack that averages 227.6 yards per game, good for 15th in the country. The Bruins' biggest weakness is a poor secondary, but Oregon is not positioned well to exploit that area considering the underwhelming performance of quarterback Anthony Brown thus far in 2021.
The Bruins have also been on a roll in Pac-12 play, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games. They appear to match up well against a Ducks team that is also 1-6 ATS in its last 7 conference games.
We’ll lay the points with the short favorite at home.
Under 60.5 (-110)
UCLA should have success running the ball in this contest, which will keep the clock churning and help Under bettors. Despite finding offensive success for much of the season, UCLA has only played in one Pac-12 game this season that eclipsed the 60-point total.
The Ducks have also been a great Under play on the road, cashing Under tickets in each of their last five road games and seven of their last nine overall. Quarterback Anthony Brown has yet to throw for over 250 yards in any game this season and does not appear positioned to take advantage of a subpar Bruins secondary.
Oregon’s defensive numbers are solid: The Ducks are allowing 21 points per game and haven’t allowed a single offense — other than Ohio State — to gain more than 5.0 yards per play. Star edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux has returned to health and was terrorizing Cal last week and he’ll form a formidable tandem with linebacker Noah Sewell (54 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 3 sacks) this Saturday.
The Ducks have been trending toward Unders for a while now, due to their solid defensive play and conservative offensive approach, and we don't see that changing in this week.
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