The No. 23-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions head to Jordan-Hare Stadium to face off against the Auburn Tigers in Week 3 of college football action on Saturday.
The Lions broke into the AP Top 25 after winning last week and while the Tigers are unranked, they still have one of the most respected programs in the country.
Clashes between Big Ten and SEC powerhouses are always entertaining and oddsmakers are expecting a competitive contest on Saturday with PSU installed as a 3-point road favorite. Here are my best free Penn State vs. Auburn college football betting picks and predictions.
Penn State vs Auburn best odds
Penn State vs Auburn picks and predictions
It isn't often that Auburn is a home underdog against a team that isn't Alabama, Georgia, or LSU, but the Tigers were 4-point pups against the Nittany Lions last September and lost 28-20.
Although the Lions aren't quite as good defensively as they were last year, they have the depth and talent to retool on that side of the ball while their offense has looked even better.
The Tigers certainly have their strengths as a team, including their ground game led by Tank Bigsby and a strong defensive line that stuffs the run.
However, their passing game was inept last year and might be even worse this season with T.J. Finley taking over for the departed Bo Nix. Finley completed just 54.7% of his 128 passes last year as Nix's backup and he has already thrown three picks this season despite facing mediocre out-of-conference foes.
Auburn also has question marks behind its defensive line with the secondary and linebackers both looking suspect. Barely beating an average Mountain West team at home last week is not a good look for Bryan Harsin's squad and I don't think it gets the job done on Saturday.
My best bet: Penn State -3 (-110 at bet365)
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Penn State vs Auburn betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Both of these programs started last year strong before faltering down the stretch. PSU lost six of its last eight games — going 3-5 against the spread over that span — while Auburn lost five in a row (albeit almost upsetting Alabama as a 20.5-point dog in the Iron Bowl). These teams will look for better results this year and have started off 2-0.
PSU is fresh off a dominant 46-10 victory against Ohio where it outgained the Bobcats 572-264. The offense was extremely well-balanced with three quarterbacks combining to throw for 338 yards while the Lions rumbled for 234 yards on the ground — led by highly-touted freshman Nick Singleton who picked up 179 yards on just 10 carries.
Auburn opened its season with a 42-16 victory against the Mercer Bears — an FCS school that managed to pull off the backdoor cover as 30-point underdogs.
Its second game was more concerning, and while it held on to beat San Jose State 24-16, it was a back-and-forth contest where the Tigers were fortunate to recover three fumbles. The weaknesses that they have on paper were exposed as being very real against a Spartans program that finished last year below .500 and are +2,500 long shots to win the Mountain West Conference this season.
Auburn's passing game with Finley at QB didn't do enough, and its secondary and linebacker corps was exploited on intermediate routes by Spartans QB Chevan Cordeiro.
Over/Under analysis
When these teams clashed last September the O/U was installed at 53, and after combining for 48 points, the total opened at 48 for this clash before ticking down to 47.5.
The Under is 12-5 in the Lions' last 17 games on the road while going 4-1 in their previous five contests against SEC schools. Meanwhile, the Under has cashed in four of Auburn's last five games overall.
That said, there is reason to think that we might see more offense in this year's rematch. Last season, PSU held foes to just 5.9 yards per pass attempt (third-best in the country) and 17.3 ppg (sixth-best) but lost seven starters in the offseason and will no doubt take a step back.
Thankfully for Lions fans, they seem to have improved on the other side of the ball where the experienced Clifford returns under center while Singleton looks like their next great back.
The Tigers said goodbye to some key defensive backs in the offseason with Roger McCreary and Smoke Monday departing for the NFL. Surrendering 275 passing yards to Cordeiro and the Spartans last week was a good indication of just how much they miss those studs in their secondary.
Penn State vs Auburn game info
• Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Penn State vs Auburn key injuries
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Penn State vs Auburn betting trend to know
The Nittany Lions are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games while the Tigers haven't covered the spread even once in their previous five non-conference tilts. Find more NCAA betting trends for Penn State vs. Auburn.
