Penn State vs Maryland Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Nittany Lions Maul Terrapins

Saturday afternoon brings us a terrific Big Ten matchup when No. 11 Penn State visits Maryland for an important matchup with the Nittany Lions.

Penn State bounced back nicely from its Week 8 loss to Ohio State by sneaking past Indiana 33-22 at Penn State. Maryland has suffered three consecutive defeats and would love to end its two-game losing streak to the Nittany Lions. 

Please join me as I break down the college football odds and bring you my free college football picks for Penn State and Maryland for Saturday, November 4.

Penn State vs Maryland best odds

Penn State vs Maryland picks and predictions

We’re heading into the home stretch of the Big Ten season, and both schools have plenty on the line when they square off Saturday afternoon.

Penn State is 4-1 in the conference and still has an outside shot at winning the Big Ten title. The Nittany Lions face No. 2 Michigan in two weeks, but first things first: Penn State must defeat Maryland, or none of the other stuff matters.

The Terrapins must do two things well on Saturday if they want to defeat the Nittany Lions: stop their passing game and not turn the ball over. I don’t believe they’ll be able to do either well enough to cover the spread.

Maryland has a leaky secondary that allows 230 passing yards per game and 11 scoring strikes. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar should be able to pick apart the Terrapins' secondary because every other quarterback has this season. Allar struggled against Ohio State but has thrown 16 TD passes with one INT over 254 attempts, and the Terrapins aren’t going to stop him, wideout KeAndre Lambert-Smith (550 yards, four TDs), or TE Tyler Warren (5 TDs). 

Ohio State was able to throw the ball against Penn State, and Maryland will have to sling it successfully because its rushing threat is non-existent. Penn State has the third-best rushing defense nationally, and the Terrapins don't have the horses to hurt the Nittany Lions.

Terrapins QB Taulia Tagovailoa has the experience and has thrown for 2,200 yards this season and 10,000+ for his career. The problem with the Maryland offense has been Tagovailoa's interceptions and a combination of a lack of a rushing game and a shaky offensive line.

Penn State needs to put up a big number and has outscored the Terrapins 156-17 in their last three meetings at SECU Stadium. Expect to see the Nittany Lions secondary come up with a play or two after Tagovailoa is forced to make bad decisions due to the pressure he will face from Penn State's defensive line. I expect Allar and the offense to come alive against a somewhat shaky Maryland team defense and score enough to cover the spread. 

My best bet: Penn State -8.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Penn State vs Maryland same-game parlay

Penn State -8.5

Over 51

Penn State TT Over 33.5

+262 at DraftKings

This SGP fits nicely with my best bet. Penn State will need to put up a big number to cover the -8.5, and I expect it to score at least 34 points on Saturday.  The Terrapins have allowed 97 points over their last three matchups and face a Lions' offense that has scored 30+ in seven of their eight matchups and 156 points over their last three games at Maryland.

Finally, I do expect MD to put points on the board. Tagovailoa has thrown 14 TD passes over his past five contests, and we saw Ohio State be successful through the air against Penn State, I believe the Terrapins will do enough to score the football and send this one Over the total. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Penn State vs Maryland spread and Over/Under analysis

Maryland opened as a +310 underdog, but money has come in on the Terrapins, and as of Thursday morning they were +270.

DraftKings opened this game with Maryland as a +12-point home underdog, but that number was hammered enough to move the line to -8.5 (-108). The bookmaker raised the vig from -110 to -112 to compensate for the likely beating it will take at -8.5. 

The total opened at 50.5 (-110) but shifted to 51 (-112). That would make sense because Maryland must score at least four TDs to beat Penn State. After all, its defense isn’t likely to stop the Lions often.

Penn State vs Maryland betting trend to know

The Terrapins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs Maryland.

Penn State vs Maryland game info

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