Running the football is going to be a big part of who wins the Orange Bowl between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
But with all eyes on the ground game, I’ve found some value in the receiving yards prop market. In fact, I have a trio of bets I love for this College Football Playoff semifinal.
Here are my college football picks for the Orange Bowl, set to kick off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 9 on ESPN.
Penn State vs Notre Dame props for the Orange Bowl
Singleton o27.5 rec yds (-115 at BetMGM)
Faison o42.5 rec yds (-115 at BetMGM)- Evans u25.5 rec yds (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 11-9.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Penn State vs Notre Dame Orange Bowl player props
Prop bet #1: Nick Singleton Over 27.5 receiving yards
I’ve made this bet a few times in the Penn State Nittany Lions' biggest games this season (and no, I don't count playoff games where the Nittany Lions are double-digit favorites as one of their biggest games). While Drew Allar has certainly taken a step forward in his development, teams with strong defensive lines that can create pressure have caused him some problems.
So, what is one of things Allar likes to do in these situations? Dump the ball off to his best receiving back, Nick Singleton.
For what it’s worth, I believe Singleton is Penn State’s best overall running back as well, but he is a real weapon out of the backfield in the passing game as well, catching 39 passes for 342 yards and five touchdowns. However, if you look at Singleton’s game logs, the majority of those receiving yards have come in the Nittany Lions’ toughest games.
Against USC, where Penn State needed a big comeback, Singelton caught four balls for 39 yards. Next week at Wisconsin, which was a one-point game midway through the fourth quarter, he had three for 37. The biggest game of the year was against Ohio State, and he went for six grabs and 54 yards. And in the Big Ten Championship, he had four and 43.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have the ability to create more pressure than any of those teams, outside of maybe Ohio State. With Singleton’s receiving yard prop sitting at 27.5, this is an easy Over bet for me.
Prop bet #2: Jordan Faison Over 42.5 receiving yards
Riley Leonard isn’t necessarily known for his arm, but if Notre Dame wants to get past Penn State and advance to the National Championship Game, then he’s going to keep having to make some timely throws like he has during the Fighting Irish’s first two playoff games.
Leonard sure seems happy that Jordan Faison is back at 100%. The Fighting Irish wide receiver and former lacrosse star was battling injuries for much of the first half of the season, and when he finally got healthy, it took him a bit to be integrated into the offense.
Over his final five games of the regular season, Faison had 12 receptions for 161 yards and a touchdown. But it has been a different story in the playoffs. Faison has hauled in 11 catches for 135 yards and two scores over two games.
He went for seven grabs and 89 yards against the Hoosiers, and followed that up with four and 46 with two tuddies against the Dawgs.
Despite becoming Leonard’s favorite target, Faison still has a reasonable receiving yards prop sitting at 42.5 for this semifinal matchup against Penn State. Not only has he gone Over that number in both of Notre Dame’s playoff games, but in three of his last four and four of his last seven overall.
Prop bet #3: Omari Evans Under 25.5 receiving yards
It could be a tough night for Allar as Notre Dame has arguably the best pass defense in all of college football. In fact, the Irish lead the nation in EPA per dropback and defensive success rate on dropbacks.
Now, Notre Dame has a very good defensive front seven, but it’s that secondary led by Xavier Watts that makes this unit so scary. They can man up with just about anybody, which allows defensive coordinator Al Golden to send exotic blitz packages at opposing offenses.
And while Penn State has some talented running backs and the best tight end in the country in Ty Warren, what this Nittany Lions team lacks is explosive weapons on the outside.
Wide receiver Omari Evans is probably Penn State’s best deep threat, averaging 19.8 yards per reception this season. The problem is that Evans has really been all or nothing. He has just 13 receptions over his last 12 games. He has more than two catches just once over that stretch and was held catchless four times.
Evans is generally far down Allar’s progression list, and I’m betting he won’t have time to get there against this aggressive Notre Dame pass defense. Give me the Under on his 25.5 receiving yards a number he’s stayed below in nine of his last 12 games.
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