Penn State vs Ohio State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Tentative Start in Massive Matchup

College football's game of the week takes place at the Horseshoe in Columbus where the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions visit the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes today.

This matchup of Top 10 teams is intriguing for so many reasons; principally, a win will be close to a necessity if either team wants to win the Big Ten East.

While we know both defenses will be elite, what we’ll get from the respective offenses isn’t so clear-cut. I mean, besides, the Buckeyes are just going to huck it up to Marvin Harrison Jr. a bunch.

But will that be enough to cover a 5.5-point college football odds spread against the Nittany Lions? Or does this matchup of elite defenses mean we should turn our attention to the total?

I break down all the angles and bring you the best bet in my free college football picks and predictions for Penn State vs. Ohio State on Saturday, October 21.

Penn State vs Ohio State best odds

Penn State vs Ohio State picks and predictions

Penn State has been running roughshod over its opponents this season, not only winning all six of its games but covering the spread in each and every one.

The Nittany Lions’ defense has been dominant. They have a fearsome pass rush and may have one of the only secondaries in the country with a legitimate shot of at least somewhat slowing down Marvin Harrison Jr. Penn State leads the nation in opponent yards per play and second in sack rate and beating them will be a difficult task for Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord.

McCord has had his ups-and-downs in his first season as the Buckeyes' starting QB, and while it looks like he’s been getting more comfortable as the season has gone on, the last time he faced a strong defense was against Notre Dame back on Sept. 23. He completed just 56.8% of his passes at 6.0 yards per attempt.

It doesn’t help that the status of several of the Buckeyes’ skill position players is still up in the air. Wideout Emeka Egbuka and top two running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams all missed last week’s game vs. Purdue. All are questionable this week.

But moving the ball might not be much easier for Penn State’s young quarterback. Even though Drew Allar clearly has a ton of talent and is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, you can tell the sophomore signal-caller is still trying to figure things out.

That is costing the Nittany Lions when it comes to big-play ability. Penn State ranks 129th in the country in scrimmage plays of 20+ yards this season and it probably won’t improve much against this Buckeyes defense. Ohio State ranks second in opponent yards per play this season.

This is a really interesting matchup where the best-known quantities are the elite defenses. This is the biggest game both quarterbacks have ever played in and I expected there to be a feeling-out process early on.

On top of that, it feels like Ohio State enters matchups with a certain game plan in mind on offense. Before they say screw it, and McCord just starts hucking it up to Harrison. This usually happens in the second half, where the Buckeyes score the majority of their points.

That’s why I’m betting the first-half Under at FanDuel, which is giving us a 50% boost on one bet for this Penn State-Ohio State matchup.

My best bet: Under 22.5 first-half total (-114 at FanDuel | +131 with 50% boost)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Penn State vs Ohio State same-game parlay

Under 22.5 1H total

Penn State +6.5 alt spread

Harrison 100+ rec yds

50% boost available

+645 +967 at FanDuel

As always, our same-game parlay starts off with our best bet. And a low-scoring game I think plays into Penn State being able to keep this game close. Or at least close enough that covering the spread will be on the table for most of the game. But 4.5 and 5.5 on the road don’t inspire me, so I’ll push it through the key number of six and add Penn State +6.5 on the alternate spread.

And even though I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring game, that doesn’t mean Marvin Harrison Jr. won’t get his. While the Nittany Lions will have a better shot than most at slowing him down, it doesn’t mean they will. The Buckeyes’ wideout continues to show why he’s among the NFL Draft odds contenders, and will go in the Top 5.

His receiving yard total for this matchup is set at 82.5, which is an interesting number. I believe he either goes way Under like he did against Notre Dame, or he tops 100 yards — as he's done in four of his last five games. So, let’s close this SGP out with Harrison’s alternate receiving yards at 100+. If all three hit, it cashes a +645 ticket.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Penn State vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for this Big Ten East battle opened with Ohio State as 6-point home favorites. But that number was quickly bought up and the Buckeyes moved down to -4.5. However, the home side has seen some action since then with 5.5s starting to pop back up on the board.

In a low-scoring game, I tend to like the underdog, particularly when that underdog has a defense as good as Penn State’s. However, there are a few things playing against Penn State here. Ohio State’s defense is nearly as good. The Buckeyes have the better big-play ability. And they will have the big advantage of playing this matchup at home.

While both quarterbacks are inexperienced in big games like this it will be Allar who must deal with a hostile Columbus crowd. If the line gets back to six I would consider Penn State, but anything lower, it’s the home team.

The total meanwhile hit the board at 47.5 but like the side, that number was short-lived and bet down to 45.5 and that’s where it sits as of Thursday night. 

Since I’m on the first half Under I’d have a slight lean to the full-game Under as well. My only hesitation is that these teams could settle down in the second half and put up a few more points. So, I’ll stick with the first half total here.

Penn State vs Ohio State betting trend to know

Penn State has only hit the first half Over in three of its last 10 games for -3.80 units. Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs Ohio State.

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