College Football Championship Week Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Handicapping the Sky-High Stakes

It’s hard to believe that Conference Championship Week is already here. Ten conference titles are up for grabs and from the College Football Playoff to New Year’s Six bowl games there is plenty on the line this weekend.

As thanks to you guys, what better way to close out the season than by looking at the college football odds and giving you free college football picks for every one of those title tilts? 

Thanks for following (or fading) the Triple Option college football picks all year long, and thanks to Douglas Farmer for individually kicking my butt this year when he stepped in for me this season... I'm not blaming my newborn baby girl.

Here are my best bets for Conference Championship Week.

College football Championship Week odds, picks, and predictions

New Mexico State vs Liberty prediction

The Liberty Flames are 12-0 with an offense that is on fire but don’t overlook the New Mexico State Aggies. Yes, the Aggies lost their early-season matchup to the Flames 33-17 back in September but a lot has changed since then.

New Mexico State enters this game the winners of nine in a row SU/ATS with four of the last five coming as underdogs, which includes a 31-10 beatdown of Auburn as 25.5-point pups.

Dual-threat QB Deigo Pavia leads an Aggies offense that ranks 10th in yards per play and 20th in offensive success rate. He can do enough to keep this close.

PICK: New Mexico State +11.5 (-110 at bet365)

Oregon vs Washington prediction

The Pac-12 championship is a rematch of one of the best college football games we saw all season where the Washington Huskies defeated the Oregon Ducks 36-33 in Seattle.

Since then, the Ducks and Huskies have taken very different paths to get here. Oregon has dominated everyone it's faced while it feels like Washington has had to scrap and claw to keep its undefeated record.

By the numbers, the biggest edge is Oregon’s defense compared to Washington’s, but the best passers the Ducks have faced (Michael Penix Jr., Caleb Williams, Cam Ward) have all been able to move the football against them.

Penix & Co. are good enough to keep this interesting. Getting 10 points with the team that won the original matchup is wild.

PICK: Washington +10 (-105 at Ceasars)

Oklahoma State vs Texas prediction

The Texas Longhorns need a few things to fall its way if it wants to make the College Football Playoff for the first time, but dominating this Big 12 Championship Game won’t hurt their chances.

The Longhorns offense can be lethal. Quinn Ewers is playing well and has some of the best skill position players in the country at his disposal, ranking 22nd in both yards per play and scoring.

This Oklahoma State Cowboys defense that ranks 117th in opponent yards per play and is getting killed by the run will have trouble slowing Texas down. Remember, style points matter for the Longhorns. 

PICK: Texas team total Over 35.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

Miami (Ohio) vs Toledo prediction

Leave it to MAC-tion to give us an intriguing title game. It’s a classic offense vs. defense battle as the Toledo Rockets are looking to win back-to-back conference titles when they take on the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks.

And with Toledo’s lone loss this season being a 2-point defeat to Illinois, the Rockets are still holding out hope for a New Year’s Six bowl bid. 

Led by dual-threat quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone, the Rockets boast the MAC’s best offense. On Saturday, they go against the conference’s best defense but the thing is: Toledo’s defense isn’t too bad either while Miami’s offense stinks, ranking 110th in success rate. 

Toledo won the Oct. 21 meeting between these teams 21-17. With running or defense, we should see more of the same.

PICK: Under 44 (-110 at Ceasars)

Boise State vs UNLV prediction

The UNLV Rebels have been one of the best stories in college football this season and will have a shot at double-digit wins for the first time since 1984.

UNLV has gotten here thanks to an impressive offense led by QB Jayden Maiava, wideout Ricky White, and a stable of solid running backs, but this game will be about Maiava and White.

The Boise State Broncos bounced back after a slow start this season, but this is a bad matchup for the Broncos. They rank 114th in opponent yards per attempt and 57th in opponent success rate vs. the pass.

Meanwhile, Boise’s run-first attack should get slowed up by a Rebels rush defense that allows a respectable 4.1 yards per carry and ranks 36th in success rate vs. the run. I think the wrong team is favored here.

PICK: UNLV +2.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Appalachian State vs Troy prediction

Because of a frankly stupid rule, James Madison won’t be in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Instead, we get the Appalachian State Mountaineers taking on the Troy Trojans for the conference title.

Troy has an elite defense that allowed just 13 points per game in conference play and ranked 11th in the country in opponent yards per play.

Despite winning five in a row to make it here, the Mountaineers' inconsistencies on offense will bite them in the butt against this great defense.

The other problem is that Troy running back Kimani Vidal could rumble all over an App State defense that ranks 115th in opponent yards per carry.

PICK: Troy -5.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

SMU vs Tulane prediction

The SMU Mustangs have quietly become my ride-or-die this season. The Ponies have one of the country's most underrated defenses and their only two losses came to Big 12 opponents Oklahoma and TCU.

That defense can do it all: stuff the run, defend the pass, and pressure the quarterback. SMU ranks seventh in opponent yards per play and sack rate and 14th in defensive success rate. If anyone can slow down Michael Pratt, it’s them.

Not having Preston Stone hurts, but SMU should still have success against a Tulane Green Wave defense that's vulnerable to the pass, ranking 100th in yards per game and 70th in defensive success rate. This is a very winnable game for SMU so I’ll gladly take the points.

PICK: SMU +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Georgia vs Alabama prediction

The Alabama Crimson Tide have improved a lot since its Week 2 loss to Texas. Particularly, the play of quarterback Jalen Milroe, but the Tide haven't looked perfect and needed a miracle to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

Speaking of perfect, the Georgia Bulldogs have won 29 in a row with its last loss coming in the 2021 SEC championship to...you guessed it... Alabama. Carson Beck’s development is why Georgia is No. 1 heading into this matchup and the Bulldogs rank third in offensive success rate. 

Alabama arguably has the better defense in this matchup for the first time in a while but Georgia is still a force on that side of the ball. And the Tide have had some issues vs. solid defensive teams.

Bama has also started slow in a handful of games. With Georgia ranking eighth in the country in first-half scoring, I like the Dawgs to hold a lead at the half.

PICK: Georgia -3 first half spread (-115 at bet365)

Michigan vs Iowa prediction

This is my only principle play of the weekend. Let me preface this by saying I think the Michigan Wolverines are the best team in the country and will win this game fairly easily.

That said, I can’t remember ever seeing a team favored by more than three touchdowns with a total in the mid-30s.

It just leaves so little room for error for the Wolverines. It feels like the Iowa Hawkeyes will play this one just not to be embarrassed and their defense, which ranks second in opponent yards per play and fourth in success rate, should be able to slow down Michigan’s offense just enough to cover this massive spread.

PICK: Iowa +22.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Louisville vs Florida State prediction

The Florida State Seminoles are in a tough spot. They probably should have lost to Florida last week if the Gators didn't look like the most undisciplined team ever. On top of that, the Seminoles could be down to their third-string QB after backup Tate Rodemaker took an ugly hit last game. 

And unlike Florida, the Louisville Cardinals are well-coached and have a solid defense that ranks 19th in success rate. You can also run on FSU a bit, which means containing Jawhar Jordan could be a problem for the Seminoles. 

Louisville lost last week but didn't have much to play for. It seems unfair but I think this is where FSU's magical season comes to an end.

PICK: Louisville moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic