It’s time for the Bill Walsh Legacy Game as the Stanford Cardinal (3-8) face the San Jose State Spartans (6-5) on Friday night in Week 14.
It’ll be the regular season finale for both teams. Stanford didn’t show as much improvement as many expected in Year 2 under Troy Taylor, whereas SJSU was better than many expected in Year 1 of the Ken Niumatalolo era.
Find out why I think Stanford can finish strong despite a slow start to proceedings in my Stanford vs. San Jose State predictions and college football picks for November 29.
Stanford vs San Jose State prediction and best bet
My best bet
First Half Under 27.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The San Jose State Spartans just played a game in which its starting quarterback, Walker Eget, completed four of his 22 pass attempts. The books witnessed this and then set the total of their next game at 55.5, with the first-half total hanging at 27.5.
No thank you — give me the Under.
Sure, there was some poor weather in the game last week against UNLV that helped lead to Eget’s deficiencies through the air. Still, good offensive teams will overcome that, and the Spartans didn’t.
The Spartans want to throw (sixth in pass rate), but it’s hard to do so efficiently when you can’t block (123rd in PFF’s pass blocking grade). Stanford doesn’t have a great defense, but its strength is along the defensive front, making this a fine matchup in which it can create some pressure and make Eget uncomfortable.
Their identity has been on the defensive side of the ball in Year 1 under Ken Niumatalolo. The Spartans rank 22nd in EPA per play on that side of the ball, led by a strong rushing defense (20th in EPA per rush) and a stout defensive front (30th in line yards, 35th in stuff rate).
The Stanford Cardinal don’t have much ability to run the ball, averaging 3.6 yards per rush while ranking 102nd in rushing success rate. The offensive line has had massive issues (117th in line yards, 126th in stuff rate, and 131st in front-seven havoc), and it should be more of the same against a capable SJSU defensive front.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels has as many touchdowns as interceptions (nine) and is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. The fine folks at PFF grade Stanford as the 126th offense (62.8), and that checks out for a team that can’t block, can’t run, and can hardly throw.
Both teams have trended to the Under this season with identical 4-7 O/U records. Troy Taylor’s Cardinal look to slow things down whenever possible, ranking 104th in plays per minute (2.11). Fresh off one of the worst box scores for a quarterback anyone has ever seen, it’s hard to see Eget and the Spartans crank things up from 0 to 60.
SJSU has cashed the First Half Under in nine of its last 12 games. I’m betting on that coming through once against and am taking Under 27.5 in the First Half as my best bet.
Stanford vs San Jose State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 55.5
Stanford +2.5
Handicapping is about more than just “this team has better statistics/metrics, so I’m betting them against the spread.” Allow me to expand on some other factors that have me taking the points with the Cardinal.
Stanford is still a young team undergoing a rebuild, so it makes sense that it would be a poor team to start the year while finishing stronger. Taylor’s squad shocked the world with a 38-35 win over Louisville two weeks ago and then nearly followed that up with a win over Cal but fell 24-21 in the waning seconds.
Is SJSU improving as the season goes along? The Spartans have lost two of their last three games and have concerns at quarterback.
Strength of schedule also plays a factor. Stanford has played the likes of Clemson, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, SMU, and Louisville — all of whom would be massive favorites over SJSU. According to ESPN’s FPI, Stanford ranks 14th in strength of schedule while SJSU lags behind at 116th.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Stanford vs San Jose State odds
Stanford vs San Jose State live odds
Stanford vs San Jose State opening odds
- Stanford vs. San Jose State spread: San Jose State -2.5
- Stanford vs. San Jose State moneyline: Stanford +125, San Jose State -145
- Stanford vs. San Jose State Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Stanford vs San Jose State spread and Over/Under analysis
- One-dimensional, pass-first offenses have had trouble against Stanford. The Cardinal beat Syracuse (26-24) and hung close with TCU (34-27 loss).
- Stanford is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games against SJSU. The Cardinal are 10-1 straight-up in that span.
- Sixteen different Stanford players have made their first collegiate starts this season, the eight-most in the FBS. One would think a young squad like this shows improvement at the end of the year, and we’ve seen that come to fruition lately.
Stanford vs San Jose State betting trend to know
SJSU has hit the Under in eight of its last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for Stanford vs San Jose State.
Stanford vs San Jose State game info
| Location: | CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 11-29-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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