Mississippi State vs Mississippi Prediction and Picks for College Football Week 14

It's a travesty the Egg Bowl isn’t being played on Thanksgiving this year. Instead, the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Mississippi Rebels will do battle on Black Friday.

After a stunning loss to Florida last week, the Rebels' CFP odds are next to nonexistent, and my Mississippi State vs. Mississippi predictions believe the Bulldogs have value as big underdogs.

Check out my college football picks for November 29 below.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi prediction and best bet

My best bet
Mississippi State +26.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Despite a couple of losses and the topsy-turvy nature of the SEC this season, the path for the Mississippi Rebels to get to the College Football Playoff was clear: Beat Florida and win the Egg Bowl to close the season, and you’re in the 12-team field.

However, it looked like the Swamp gave the Rebels heat stroke as they threw up all over themselves in a stunning loss to the Gators. And all of a sudden, Mississippi is on the outside looking in at CFP, and a postseason berth feels unlikely.

So, that has me questioning just how motivated the Rebels will be for this matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Now, Mississippi is nearly a four-touchdown favorite for a reason: The Rebels have more talent, a dynamic QB in Jaxson Dart, and one of the best defenses in the country.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State can’t stop anyone and has only one FBS win this season against UMass. That said, despite not having a conference win to speak of, the Bulldogs have played better in SEC play and are 5-2 against the spread — including 4-0 ATS when getting 21 points or more.

Interestingly enough, Mississippi State went on this ATS run when freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. took over for the injured Blake Sharpen. Van Buren has shown flashes of his potential, throwing for 1,362 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions over his seven starts. 

In fact, the Bulldogs enter this game ranked a respectable 59th in offensive success rate and Van Buren is a big part of the reason why.

Also, don’t overlook the fact Mississippi is full of transfers, which means this rivalry game might not have the same hatred it has in years past.

There is only one team motivated to play in this game, and it’s the Bulldogs. A win here would mean so much to the program. Do I think they get it? I’m not sure, but give me Mississippi State to cover another big spread.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)

Mississippi State +26.5

Michael Van Buren Jr. Over 194.5 passing yards

Cayden Lee 80+ receiving yards

+525 at BetMGM

Michael Van Buren Jr. is clearly still growing as a quarterback. Still, he's put on some impressive performances this season — including throwing for 306 yards against UGA, 242 against Texas A&M, and 309 vs. Arkansas. Teams that grade out from good to great defenses.

I can see a lot of game scripts where Van Buren has to huck it.

If the Bulldogs are competing, it means he's moving the ball. And if they aren't, he's going to have to throw the ball. In a game where the Bulldogs should be much more motivated than the Rebels, I like Van Buren to go Over this passing yard prop.

Meanwhile, just because I like Mississippi State to keep this within the big number doesn’t mean Mississippi won’t move the chains — particularly through the air. The Bulldogs rank 133rd in success rate on dropbacks. 

So, I’m looking at one of the Rebels’ few homegrown talents in wide receiver Cayden Lee. The sophomore has exploded onto the scene for 790 yards this season with the majority coming in the last five games, topping 81 yards in four of his last five.

With Lee being one of the few Rebels players who actually cares about the rivalry, let’s take him to go for 80+ yards on Friday night.

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Mississippi State vs Mississippi odds

Mississippi State vs Mississippi live odds

Mississippi State vs Mississippi opening odds

• Mississippi State vs. Mississippi spread: Mississippi -26
• Mississippi State vs. Mississippi moneyline: Mississippi State +1,550, Mississippi -3,000
• Mississippi State vs. Mississippi Over/Under: 61.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Mississippi State vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis

• Mississippi opened this SEC rivalry as 26-point home favorites, and the Rebels are starting to inch higher, creeping up to 26.5 as of Thursday morning.
• There hasn't been a spread larger than two touchdowns in the Egg Bowl since 2011.
• The total hit the board at 61.5 and has yet to see much action.
• These teams are on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to totals. Mississippi State's improving offense and non-existent defense have made the Bulldogs a great Over bet at 8-3 O/U. Meanwhile, Mississippi's elite defense and inconsistent offense have the Rebels at 2-9 O/U.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi betting trend to know

The underdog has covered the spread in five of the last eight Egg Bowls. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi State vs Mississippi.

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