Whew. I was half expecting to come back from my wedding and not have a job anymore, the way my replacement Douglas Farmer was talking. Luckily, my backup performed more like Nate Peterman instead of Mike White.
Seriously though, shoutout to Douglas for holding down the fort and clearly knowing more about college football than the CFP selection committee. That aside, one team on the outside looking in the initial rankings was Ohio State. But the Buckeyes' destiny is in their own hands and have betting value this week against Nebraska.
That and more as MY Triple Option returns with my best college football picks and predictions for Week 10.
College football picks and predictions for Week 10
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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College football Week 10 picks
Ohio State -14.5 (-110)
The Ohio State Buckeyes landed at No. 5 in the initial College Football Playoff Rankings, but with remaining matchups against Michigan State who opened at No. 3, and rival Michigan, the Buckeyes’ CFP destiny appears to be in their own hands.
But when you are on the outside looking in on the playoff rankings, every game is important, and Ohio State certainly won’t be overlooking Nebraska this week.
Now, #FadeNebraska has not taken off as expected after a season-opening loss to Illinois, and admittedly, this Cornhuskers team is better than their 3-6 record indicates as all of their losses have come by eight points or fewer, but this looks like a wrong place at the wrong time for Nebraska.
Ohio State is coming off a tough game against Penn State (frankly that 18.5-point line was a little disrespectful to the Nittany Lions), but the Buckeyes should bounce back here. While the Nebraska defense has posted some solid numbers it does not match up well in this matchup with Ohio State.
The Cornhuskers rank 109th in opponent completion percentage and 73rd in sack percentage and arguably haven’t faced a great passing attack this season. Now, they must deal with Ohio State's plethora of offensive weapons, including CJ Stroud, Chris Olave, and Garret Wilson.
What makes this Ohio State team really dangerous though is the development of TreVeyon Henderson. It’s not hyperbole to say the blue-chip has gotten better with each game he has played, and he is coming off a game against a solid Penn State rush defense where he rumbled for 152 yards on 28 carries — while Nebraska struggled to slow down Minnesota’s and Michigan’s respective run games recently.
And despite not being able to cover against Penn State last week, Ohio State had covered three straight conference games as 15-point favorites or greater, covering the number by an average of 25.7 points.
Plus, Adrian Martinez is still, well, Adrian Martinez. The Huskers' signal-caller is completing just 55.6 percent of his passes and has thrown five picks during Nebraska’s three-game losing streak. While this isn’t a terrifying Buckeyes’ defense, it’s still good enough to cause problems for Martinez.
Despite the feel-good story behind Michigan State, I still think Ohio State is the class of the Big Ten and by a fairly wide margin. They will put the conference on notice with a big performance in this game.
Baylor -6.5 (-110)
Welcome to the principle play of the week.
As many of you may know, TCU canned long-time coach Gary Patterson this week. While the school will come out and say that they wanted Patterson to finish out the season, the coach who had taken this program to 17 bowl games in 22 seasons likely felt disrespected by the administration and told them to jog on.
Don’t worry about Patterson though, my bet is that he lands a fairly high-profile job sooner rather than later.
You should, however, be worrying about TCU. The Horned Frogs come into this matchup with Baylor losers of three straight games, all by 12 points or more, and the last two came against Kansas State and West Virginia. Those are OK teams, but not as good as Baylor.
The Horned Frogs' two best players, quarterback Max Duggan and running back Zach Evans, are both banged up. And if Evans can go, Baylor is coming off a game where they limited Texas Longhorns star back Bijan Robinson to just 43 yards on 17 carries. Expect the same game plan for the Bears in this one and try and force Duggan to beat them with his arm.
The problems for TCU don’t end there. The once-vaunted defense ranks 111th in total yards, 116th in rushing yards, and 104th in scoring. Now, they face a Baylor offense that ranks eighth in the country in rushing. But while the Bears love to run the ball, QB Gerry Bohanon has been reliable when called upon, completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 1,758 yards and 12 touchdowns. More importantly, he has thrown just three picks.
Baylor’s lone loss this season was a close decision at No. 11 ranked Oklahoma State. This is a good football team, one that is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. I don't think they have any problem making that 6-0 on Saturday.
Washington +7 (-110)
The biggest surprise of the initial College Football Playoff rankings, at least to me, was seeing Oregon in the No. 4 position. This basically means if it wins out, it's in, which it's certainly capable of doing considering the state of the Pac-12.
However, you can basically take two things from those rankings. One, the committee is clearly trying to prop up the schedule of Ohio State. And two, big signature wins are much more important than horrific losses. Say, like losing to a five-loss Stanford team as 15.5-point favorites.
Yes, the Ducks have won all of their other games, but outside of the win at Ohio State, which is a huge win, don’t get me wrong, they have not been an impressive football team.
It’s not like their schedule has been that daunting, either. They have been favored by at least 8.5 points in six of their eight games, but it might shock you to realize they are 0-6 ATS when favored this season and 0-9 ATS in their last nine games when laying points overall.
The problems for the Ducks have been not being able to get anything out of the passing game and injuries.
Future No. 1 overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux has been nursing injuries all season long, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. The Ducks have lost top running back CJ Verdell for the season, are down two starting safeties, and they’ll even be without their leading receiver, Johnny Johnson, after he got ejected in last week’s game for targeting.
Now, Washington isn’t in much better shape when it comes to injuries and has been even more inconsistent than the Ducks. But the Huskies have won two games in a row, including at Stanford (wink), and have a shutdown pass defense. While they are just 3-2 SU in conference play, both losses came by a total of 10 points. If the Huskies can figure out a way to slow down the Ducks ground game, they should be able to keep this game close.
Yes, Thibodeaux is a game-changer, but I still find it a little crazy that 77 percent of Covers users are backing Oregon here. I just don’t know how you could have faith in backing Oregon as a favorite at this point. With so many people on the Ducks, I might wait a bit to get a better number but I’ll take the touchdown with the Huskies.
Week 10 odds overview
Army at Air Force (-2.5, 37): It's a service academy matchup and you know what that means. The return of the best trend in college football betting, service academy Unders! The Under is an incredible 38-9 (80.8 percent) since 2005 when service academies play head-to-head. Even with a low number like this, the Under probably makes my card, and if it goes Over, oh well.
Missouri at Georgia (-39, 59.5): Georgia is the clear-cut No. 1 team in the country, but can it cover a 39-point spread this week? Well, if there is a team they can do it against, it's Mizzou. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS this season and 0-11 ATS in their last 11 overall dating back to last season.
Michigan State at Purdue (+3, 53.5): Trap game alert! Michigan State is coming off one of the biggest wins in recent memory, defeating rival Michigan, and has claimed a spot in the Top 4 of the initial CFP rankings. So yes, it could be in for a bit of a letdown heading into this week's game against Purdue, but the Spartans should probably still be laying more than three points here.
Odds current at time of publish. Check out our college football odds screen to see live odds and to shop for the best prices.
Week 10 Triple Option betting card
- Ohio State -14.5 (-110)
- Baylor -6.5 (-110)
- Washington +7 (-110)
Season: 9-12-1 ATS, -3.85 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
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