College Football Picks and Predictions Week 10: Florida State Hands The U an L

The Initial College Football Playoff rankings are here and there are two Top-10 matchups involving SEC foes this weekend. But neither of those matchups holds a candle to the real main event of Week 10.

You guessed it! There is a service academy matchup on the board when Air Force takes on Army. And that means the return of the best betting trend going in maybe not just college football but in all of sports.

Plus, we take another opportunity to fade Kentucky and its porous offensive line, and for the first time in a long time, Florida State gets a chance to proclaim itself the best team in the Sunshine State when it takes on Miami.

I break it all down in my best college football picks for betting Week 10. 

College football picks and predictions for Week 10

Air Force-Army Under 40.5 (-110)

The Air Force Falcons will face off against the Army Black Knights at Choctaw Stadium in Arlington, Texas this weekend and you know what that means.

Welcome to yet another service academy Under PSA. 

The Under is 42-9-1 in the last 52 meetings between service academy programs dating back to 2005. That is an 82.4% cash rate. That includes Air Force’s matchup against Navy back in October, which the Falcons won 13-10 with a total of 38.

OK. Moving on. 

But seriously, the total for this matchup between Air Force and Army is 40.5 but it probably looks like 100.5 when these teams are involved.

For starters, this Air Force team has been a bit of a disappointment. Considering the returning talent, this team did not expect to have three conference losses at this point in the season. 

Part of that has been because the offense has been inconsistent. The Falcons have put up 40 or more points four times this season but also have three games in which they’ve scored 14 or less.

The same can be said for the Army’s version of the triple option offense. The Knights have had big performances against the likes of UL Monroe, FCS Colgate, and FCS Villanova, but struggled against Wake Forest and Georgia State in recent weeks. 

So, why all the Unders in service academy games? Well, all three teams — Army, Navy, and Air Force — deploy the triple option offense. That means sustained drives for both sides and an almost always moving clock. 

When it comes to the Air Force-Army matchup specifically, the Under has cashed in eight consecutive meetings with the average total points scored in those games sitting at 28.6. Only two of those games saw more than 31 points scored. One was last year’s game that ended 21-14 thanks to a touchdown score in overtime. 

Service academy Unders. They are a beautiful thing.

Kentucky Team Total Under 20.5 (-115)

Fading the Kentucky offense worked last week, so let’s do it again. 

Last week, it was in a situation where the opposition had a terrific offense and was forced to throw. This week, the Wildcats actually have to play a good defense, that of the Missouri Tigers. 

Eli Drinkwitz has done a solid job with a Tigers team that did not have high expectations heading into this season. Missouri comes into this one having won two straight following a three-game losing streak, but even that was somewhat impressive.

Mizzou lost at Florida, vs. Georgia, and at Auburn by a combined 14 points. That includes giving Georgia all it could handle in a 26-22 loss in a game in which it was a 31-point underdog. It’s no surprise the Tigers are 4-1 against the spread in those games and they’ve done it on the back of their impressive defense.

Missouri ranks 15th in the country in opponent yards per play, and 26th in opponent yards per rush limiting and the Tigers roared in last week’s win over South Carolina. Led by defensive end Isaiah McGuire, they pressured Spencer Rattler all day and Will Levis could be in for a similar experience. 

The Kentucky offensive line is one of the worst in college football, ranking 129th in the country in sack rate. Levis was sacked four times in the loss to Tennessee, bringing his total up to 11 in just four SEC matchups. The result was Levis going 16-for-27 for just 98 yards while tossing three picks and no touchdowns.

The Wildcats are also not opening up any holes in the run game, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this year. 

Kentucky is averaging just 18.4 points in SEC play, and I’m betting they continue having a tough time against this Mizzou defense.

Florida State -7.5 (-110)

Despite being 5-3, things are looking up in Tallahassee. Mike Norvell has this team one win away from being bowl eligible for the first time since 2019, and potentially the team’s first winning season since 2017.

All three losses came against Top 25 teams (Clemson, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest) and came by a combined 18 points. The Seminoles even have a win against an LSU team ranked 10th in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. 

Quarterback Jordan Travis has been outstanding, throwing for 2,057 yards with 14 touchdowns and just three picks, and the defense has been more than solid. 

All that said, this is a big ol’ fade of Miami. Year 1 of the Mario Cristobal era has been an unmitigated disaster.

The U? More like pee-ew, because this offense stinks without Tyler Van Dyke, and things weren’t looking so hot before the QB went down in the game against Duke. 

Miami is averaging just 17.6 points per game in its last five games against Power Five foes. Not surprisingly, the Hurricanes are 0-5 against the spread in those games. In fact, the Canes haven’t covered a spread since Sept. 3 against FCS Bethune Cookman. 

Since Van Dyke went down, Miami has scored just 20 points in regulation over the last seven quarters. The team is also averaging just 3.9 yards per play and has more turnovers (five) than touchdowns (two) over the last two weeks. 

On top of all that, Florida State should be really up for this game. Not only will a win make them bowl-eligible. A dominating win over their in-state rival will let them proclaim the Seminoles are the top team in Florida once again. That’s exactly what I think will happen on Saturday night.

Week 10 odds overview

Tennessee at Georgia (-8.5)

The biggest game of the college football world takes place in Athens this week. Tennessee is going to be a huge public dog this week against defending national champion Georgia after its upset win over Alabama. 

The Covers Consensus has 75% of users backing the Vols but it’s interesting to note that despite that edge, the line hasn’t moved much off the opening number. On top of that, Georgia needs this game more. Tennessee likely still qualifies for the College Football Playoff with a lone loss to Georgia due to its win against Alabama. But if the Bulldogs lose and miss out on the SEC title game, things get a little dicey for them.

Ohio State at Northwestern (O/U 57.5)

A total of 57.5 just feels too low for an Ohio State game right now. The Buckeyes have scored at least 44 points in all five of their Big Ten matchups this season, with the Over going 5-0. That’s not shocking considering they are getting totals in the low 60s. With Ohio State putting up over 50 points in matchups against Iowa and Wisconsin, it feels like if Northwestern scores one touchdown this game goes Over.

Alabama at LSU (+12.5)

While Alabama responded to its loss to Tennessee by taking care of business against Mississippi State, things don't get any easier this week traveling to LSU.

The Bayou Bengals only have one SEC loss, also to Tennessee, have notched back-to-back convincing wins over Florida and Mississippi, and are 4-1 ATS at home. Bama's struggles on the road and vs. quality competition have been well documented.

If the Crimson Tide aren't careful they could be in for another close contest in Death Valley.

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