Triple Option: Andrew Caley's College Football Picks and Predictions Week 11

Of course, I start to get hot, take some time off to get married, and come back and present you guys with an absolute dumpster fire of college football picks in my return last week. C'est la vie.

So, to help me get back on track I look at a trio of quarterbacks who have been slinging it all over the field recently. Houston’s Clayton Tune, Oklahoma’s Caleb Williams, and Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke all have value as favorites this week.

That and more as the Triple Option returns with my best college football picks and predictions for Week 11.

College football picks and predictions for Week 11

• Houston -24.5 (-110)
• Oklahoma -5.5 (-110)
• Miami -2.5 (-110)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

College football Week 11 picks

Houston -24.5 (-110)

This game fits the bill as the overlooked blowout of the week. The Houston Cougars come into this game having won eight games in a row and have their sights set on another AAC Championship Game appearance for a date with Cincy. 

But the Cougars come into this game against the Temple Owls feeling a little disrespected after not being ranked by the College Football Playoff committee for the second consecutive week.

Houston will use that as motivation this week but it might not need it. The Cougars have scored 40 or more points six times during their winning streak and are led by quarterback Clayton Tune. The senior signal-caller has been on fire over the last four games, completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 1,255 yards with 12 touchdowns and no picks. 

While the passing game leads the way for the Cougs, it was good to see them rush for 261 yards in last week’s win against USF. Then there is the Houston defense that ranks 20th in opponent yards per play and is seventh in the country in sack percentage.

Meanwhile, it appears the Temple has packed it in for the year. The Owls have lost four straight games and have been outscored 180-27 over that stretch. Let me repeat that. The Owls has been outscored 180-27 over its last four games. Yeah, Temple is done.

If you dive a little deeper, the Owls are allowing opponents to score on 57 percent of their possessions over the last four games, while averaging less than a touchdown a game over that span. 

It doesn’t help that the Owls have been swapping back-and-forth between D’Wan Mathis and Justin Lynch at quarterback. To make matters worse, their top wide receiver Jadan Blue entered the transfer portal this week.

Houston is heading into this game with something to prove. The defense will play better after last week’s outlier against USF and they should roll to an easy victory against an Owls team that appears to have called it a season.

Oklahoma -5.5 (-110)

This isn’t a spite play. I swear. Yes, Baylor burned me in a big way last week, but this pick is all about the matchup as the Bears play host to the Oklahoma Sooners this week.

The Sooners have looked like a different team since Caleb Williams took over for Spencer Rattler and led the team to a comeback win over rival Texas in the Red River Showdown. 

Including the win over the Longhorns, the Sooners have won four straight games with Williams under center, averaging 48.5 points per game and going 3-1 ATS. His worst performance came against Kansas, of all teams. Williams has completed 73.4 percent of his passes for 1,087 yards with 14 touchdowns with just one interception.

On the other side, it seems like Baylor came crashing back down to Earth in last week’s loss to TCU. The departure of associate head coach Joey McGuire seems to have had a bigger impact than expected. And the once-vaunted defense is starting to show some cracks.

In last week’s 30-28 loss to TCU, they allowed Chandler Morris, making his first career start, to throw for 461 yards and two scores. And the Bears’ pass defense has allowed 9.9 yards per attempt dating back to their matchup against BYU.

And while Baylor has been effective on offense, it needs to run the ball to set up the deep pass, and running the ball against Oklahoma has been a problem this year as it's giving up just 3.6 yards per rush attempt.

Plus, Lincoln Riley coming off a bye has to be worth something as well. Lay the points with the well-rested and Williams-led Sooners.

Miami -2.5 (-110)

Admittedly, I had written Miami off after it became clear that D’eriq King wouldn’t play again this season. But I was wrong. 

Tyler Van Dyke has come in and been outstanding, and shockingly, the Hurricanes still have an outside shot at getting to the ACC title game. With Van Dyke under center, the Canes have looked like one of the best offenses in college football. 

Since Miami’s loss to North Carolina, all Van Dyke has done is lead the Canes to three straight victories, where they have averaged 34 points per game. Van Dyke has completed 72.5 percent of his passes for 1,140 yards with 10 touchdowns compared to just one pick.

This number feels like a bit of an overreaction to last week’s score against Georgia Tech, but if it’s not for some turnover luck in favor of the Yellow Jackets, that game is nowhere near this close as Miami outgained Georgia Tech in a big way. 

So now Van Dyke and the Canes go up against a Florida State defense that loves to give up explosive plays. And while the Seminoles should get a boost with Jordan Travis back at QB, their beat-up and inexperienced secondary won’t be able to contain the Miami passing game. 

Miami’s last two conference losses came by a total of five points and that was against teams much better than the Seminoles. Getting The U at less than a field goal here seems like a very solid bet.

Week 11 odds overview

New Mexico State at Alabama (-51.5, 67): This is one of the biggest spreads you will ever see between two FBS opponents (if you can call New Mexico State that). Now, I'd never recommend laying 51.5, even with Alabama, but the Crimson Tide are going to be ticked off after last week's performance against LSU. This might be a perfect time to jump back on their first half spread success.

Texas A&M at Mississippi (+2.5, 56.5): The line here seems a little short on Texas A&M. The Aggies' defense has been outstanding ever since the win over Alabama and is now going against a Rebels team that has been battered by injuries, particularly the offensive line and wide receivers. Matt Coral will have to shoulder the load but even he is reportedly banged up heading into this one.

Notre Dame at Virginia (+5.5, 64): Keep an eye on the status of Cavaliers quarterback Brennan Armstrong. He has been one of the best passers in the country this season but is dealing with a rib injury and is questionable to play in this one. But either way, will Virginia be able to slow down the Irish? I'm not so sure and would lean towards Notre Dame at less than a touchdown.

Odds current at time of publish. Check out our college football odds screen to see live odds and to shop for the best prices.

Week 11 Triple Option betting card

• Houston -24.5 (-110)
• Oklahoma -5.5 (-110)
• Miami -2.5 (-110)

Last week: 0-3 ATS, -3 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

Season: 9-15-1 ATS, -6.85 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

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