College Football Week 11 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Air Force Raids Hawaii

It’s crazy how much things can change during the NCAA football season. Teams you wouldn’t expect in the Top 25 and rising up the college football odds board, players coming out of nowhere to have breakout seasons. Heck, you can have a baby that causes you to miss six weeks of the season. 

But now that we are coming down the home stretch of the season, the more things change the more they stay the same.

Kansas is just good at football now? Can the Jayhawks keep this change going as slight home favorites vs. Texas Tech or will the old Kansas pop up?

And Frank Harris getting healthy in time to lead the UTSA Roadrunners to a 5-0 start in conference play following a disastrous start to the season.

Or how about Air Force? Rolling through the season before a stunning, yet somehow not, loss to Army. How will the Falcons respond as big favorites once again, this time when visiting Hawaii?

Here are my Week 11 free college football picks in the latest edition of the Triple Option.

College football Week 11 picks

•  Kansas -3.5 (-110)
• UTSA -13.5 (-110)
• Air Force TT Over 33.5 (-115)

Picks made on November 10. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 11 odds, picks, and predictions

Texas Tech vs Kansas prediction

Lance Liepold is one of the hottest names in the college football head coaching carousel thanks to the job he has done turning around the Kansas Jayhawks football program. His name has already been linked to the job opening at Michigan State. But the Jayhawks head man squashed any notions of move. And pretty emphatically at that, with Liepold basically saying this job is the last one he has.

Talk about giving your group a confidence boost heading into this weekend’s matchup with visiting Texas Tech.

Kansas enters this weekend with a 7-2 record, which includes the program’s first win against Oklahoma since 1997. Then they followed that up with a solid win over Iowa State in what was a clear letdown spot.

Now, a spot in the Big 12 title game is unlikely with losses to both teams ahead of them (Texas and Oklahoma State) but this team still has a lot to play for. And that could mean problems for the Red Raiders.

Many were worried about how the Jayhawks would respond without quarterback Jalon Daniels, but it looks like there is nothing to worry about with Jason Bean under center. In six games, Bean has thrown for 1,418 yards with 10 touchdowns compared to four interceptions. He’s also added 156 yards and another score on the ground.

But this is a balanced offense. Running backs Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. have combined for over 1,300 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. And both are rushing for about six yards per carry. Overall, the Jayhawks rank 10th in the nation in yards per play and are 12th in offensive success rate. 

Texas Tech on the other hand is a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team. They don’t do anything too badly, when healthy, but they don’t do anything notably great either.

A Red Raiders defense that ranks 77th in passing yards allowed per game and 85th in defensive success rate vs. the pass could have a hard time containing Bean. Meanwhile, the offense has struggled to find consistency, hence ranking 55th in success rate, and I’m just not sure they’ll be able to keep up with the Jayhawks in this one.

PICK: Kansas -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Rice vs UTSA prediction

I was high on UTSA coming into the season. I picked the Roadrunners to win the AAC before the season started and took the Over on their 7.5 wins. 

Then the season started disastrously. UTSA lost its opener to Houston 17-14, and then star quarterback Frank Harris injured his toe the following week. The injury cost Harris two more games and the Roadrunners two more wins and they began the season with a 1-3 straight up and 0-4 ATS record.

But Harris returned in time for conference play and the Roadrunners all of a sudden look like the team many expected them to be.

UTSA is a perfect 5-0 straight up while going 3-1-1 ATS through its first five AAC contests, winning those games by a whopping 16.8 points per game. And Harris has been the catalyst. The senior signal-caller has thrown for 1,299 yards with 11 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions in those games. 

This week Harris will have a great chance to pick apart a struggling Rice pass defense. The Owls rank 104th in passing yards allowed per game, 109th in yards per pass attempt, and 120th in opponent EPA/pass.

Now, despite Rice’s struggles they have been a scrappy team this season going 7-2 ATS thanks to veteran quarterback J.T. Daniels and an impressive passing offense. Unfortunately for the Owls, Daniels suffered a concussion in last week’s loss to SMU and has been called doubtful to play in this game.

If Daniels is unable to go that means either backup AJ Padgett, who hasn’t played since Week 4 due to injury, or true freshman Chase Jenkins, who finished the game against the Mustangs, will start. That is not a promising proposition for either heading into the raucous Alamo Dome. The fact the UTSA defense ranks 39th in the country in opponent yards per play doesn’t hurt either.

Harris is surging and gets a good matchup. While Rice will likely be starting an inexperienced QB in a hostile environment. To me, this all points to a Roadrunners cover.

PICK: UTSA -13.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Air Force vs Hawaii prediction

If you had told me last week that the final score of the Army-Air Force game was 23-3 I would have said, thank you for another Under win, and the Falcons are a wagon at 9-0.

But in a stunning upset as 18-point underdogs, it was the Black Knights who pulled off the win, handing Air Force its first loss of the season. It was a humbling defeat for the Falcons but I think it creates a betting opportunity for us this week when they travel to Hawaii to take on the Rainbow Warriors.

Air Force is once again a big favorite this week. This time, laying nearly 20 points of chalk against Hawaii. But unlike Army, Hawaii doesn’t have the same expertise when it comes to slowing down the run-heavy triple option offense the Falcons deploy.

Despite the loss last week, this has still been a very impressive season for Air Force. In the Falcons' previous eight wins, they had an average margin of victory of 20.3 points per game. They were able to do that thanks to their dominant run game which leads the nation putting up 284.2 yards per game at a clip of 5.1 yards per carry. Overall, they rank fifth in offensive success rate when it comes to running the football.

That doesn’t bode well for Hawaii, whose run defense has more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese. The Rainbow Warriors rank 110th in opponent rushing yards per game and are allowing opponents to run at a clip of nearly five yards per carry. And they rank next to last (132nd) in opponent EPA/rush. 

That porous defense has meant Hawaii has given up a lot of points this season, 34 per game in fact, which ranks 120th in the nation. And the Warriors have allowed 35 or more points in seven of their 10 games. 

Even though they're at home, this looks like a wrong place-wrong time scenario for the Rainbow Warriors. Air Force will be ticked off after last week's loss and will take its frustrations out on Hawaii, eclipsing its team total in the process.

PICK: Air Force team total Over 33.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Week 11 odds and upcoming games

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